X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2018 ADP Throwdown - Joe Mixon vs. Jordan Howard

What Appears In This Article? hide

Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, we will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This article comes from staff writer Adam Hall, who compares running backs that are being taken in the first couple rounds of fantasy drafts.

Joe Mixon had a lackluster rookie season but promises to have a big role in his sophomore season while Jordan Howard might benefit from a new coaching staff and increased role in the passing game. Who will deliver a better return on investment in 2018?

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

A Question that Champions Answer

First-round picks are crucial to success, but your second and third round picks are where champions are made. Every year, players drastically outperform their ADP and lead to fantasy championships. Just last year, Todd Gurley and DeAndre Hopkins were hanging out near the end of the second round. One huge question circulating in the fantasy community that could have a similar impact this year is who you should take at the second to third-round turn, Joe Mixon (ADP 24), or Jordan Howard (ADP 25). I’m here today to state definitively that in 2018 the answer is Joe Mixon.

Jordan Howard paints a misleading picture

Jordan Howard burst onto the fantasy scene in 2016 with over 1600 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns.  Howard followed up his breakout season with another solid outing with over 1200 yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns. If you were to simply look at his overall performance, you would be convinced that Jordan Howard will be a viable RB1 for years to come. Though, when we look closer a different picture is painted; one of inconsistency and a degraded role on the team.

In 2017, Howard’s role as a three-down back was undercut with the emergence of offensive weapon, Tarik Cohen.  Howard’s targets dropped from 50 to 39, and his efficiency dropped with it. Howard amassed a legitimate 10.29 yards per reception (YPR) in 2016, versus a paltry 5.43 YPR in 2017. Jordan Howard led all RBs in percentage of dropped passes for the second year in a row with nearly 13%, which was one percent better than his 2016 drop rate.  This poor performance occurred after reports last year stated that Howard underwent the LASIK procedure to improve his eyesight and with it his receiving ability. Unfortunately, Howard’s hands didn’t improve as much as once hoped.

The bad news doesn’t end with his receiving ability. Howard’s yard per carry average (YPC) dropped from a top of the line 5.21 in 2016, to a mediocre 4.07 in 2017.  The mark of four yards per carry in the NFL still signifies success going forward, but when we look deeper the picture is more distressing. In 11 of 16 games last year, Howard failed to amass a YPC above 4.0; Howard was effectively nullified while running behind one of the best run blocking units in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, a premier player grading organization. Perhaps worst of all, during the last half of the fantasy season Howard only produced RB1 numbers three times, and when he didn’t produce RB1 numbers, he was completely irrelevant, tanking your team with him.  When consistency is the hallmark of a RB1 in fantasy, Howard showed last year that he didn’t live up to expectations.

Finally, Howard’s situation hasn’t improved as much as people would think. With additions of Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Taylor Gabriel, it’s clear that the passing game will improve substantially.  Due to these changes, we can assume that Howard will face fewer stacked boxes than he did in 2017 where he faced the seventh highest percentage of all RBs. This is great news for Howard going forward, along with Matt Nagy claiming that Howard can be a three-down back going forward.  If there is any sign of optimism for Howard in 2018 it’s these changes. I for one question the legitimacy of Nagy's statement. The workload a three-down back commands would effectively silence Cohen due to many of targets slated for the scat back instead going to a player that has shown to have unreliable hands at best.  It would make sense from an efficiency standpoint if the Bears utilized the two in a fashion similar to 2017.

Unfortunately, the Bears lost their best offensive lineman in the off-season. Josh Sitton has moved on, and the Bears lose his league-best run blocking with it. Currently, James Daniels is slated to start in Sitton’s place, but it’s unrealistic for the Bears to expect Pro Bowl-level production from a rookie. Since Howard’s production is primarily based on his rushing ability, this is a serious blow to Howard’s production in 2018.

Overall, there is a bit to be optimistic about for Jordan Howard this year, but overall anyone should pause and think otherwise before spending a premium pick on him this year, as he is unlikely to be this year's version of Todd Gurley.

Mixon is pointed in the right direction

Joe Mixon found himself in an extremely difficult situation in 2017, initially stuck on a time split with Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill, his opportunities were limited.  During the latter half of the season, his opportunities grew, and his production matched the workload. During the last six games of the year, Mixon averaged nearly 4.3 YPC and was a focal point of the offense. Mixon also displayed impressive hands, only dropping three balls and catching over 88% of passes thrown his way.

It seems that this catch was not an aberration for Mixon:

Mixon achieved this with a bottom-five ranked offensive line according to PFF, the Bengals’ offensive line was ninth-worst in the NFL in the yards before contact metric, netting the running backs only 1.31 yards before contact.  Thankfully, the Bengals’ front office recognized this as the biggest point of weakness on the team and invested heavily to remedy the hole in the offense. Cordy Glenn was acquired, and Billy Price was drafted in the first round. Cordy Glenn was a reliable, above-average left tackle for the Bills over the past few seasons, and previous starter, Cedric Ogbuehi was ranked as the 43rd best tackle in the NFL according to Bleacher Report, if Glenn comes back from injury and can maintain 75% of his production, he’ll be an enormous upgrade. Usually, the addition of a rookie to an offensive line is cause for concern, but Russell Bodine was ranked as the 35th best center in the NFL according to Bleacher Report. Once again, if Billy Price can provide even below average production, the offensive line will be better. Finally, the Bengals’ added former Cowboys’ offensive line coach Frank Pollack to the coaching staff, Pollack was the Cowboys' offensive line coach during the golden years of 2014 to 2017. If anyone can get the most out of this underperforming unit, it's Pollack.  With these additions, it is highly likely that the Bengals’ offensive line will be markedly better in 2018.

Beyond a heavy investment in the offensive line, Tyler Eifert is available, and John Ross is expected to contribute heavily with the departure of Brandon LaFell.  The last time Andy Dalton had this kind of team around him, he was a QB1, and his entire offense was viable in fantasy.

More good news came for Mixon after Bengals player personnel director Duke Tobin claimed that Mixon will be used as a bell-cow in 2018.  This does play into the narrative that Marvin Lewis utilizes his players far more in their sophomore years. Mixon has also slimmed down ten pounds, a trend that is often seen before breakout seasons from players.

Additions at the offensive line can be nullified if the schedule a team plays is occupied with the best defenses in the league. Thankfully, the Bengals won’t have to worry about that this year as they have the easiest strength of schedule for running backs in 2018 according to PFF’s Jeff Ratcliffe. These matchups stand in stark difference to the slated contests for the Bears who have the third-hardest schedule in the league this year. An easy strength of schedule lets players show what they can do without having to deal with players that are more than capable of limiting any potential upside.

The choice is clear, Mixon can win you a league!

When choosing between Jordan Howard and Joe Mixon, especially in PPR formats, the choice should now be clear.  Mixon doesn’t only have an easier path to success, but everything is lining up for him to showcase his talents. Jordan Howard can act as a RB2 who will often provide intermittent production, but he will likely leave you wanting this season. Joe Mixon was often compared to Le’Veon Bell while in the pre-draft process, and if he can achieve a majority of that mirror, he can help you win your league.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Duncan Robinson56 mins ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds59 mins ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler1 hour ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu2 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray2 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano3 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole3 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz3 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon3 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco3 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad4 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov4 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto4 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin4 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard4 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins4 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist4 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear4 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop5 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels5 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball5 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado5 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer5 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman5 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent5 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford16 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White16 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl18 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon18 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter18 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic18 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio18 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday18 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton18 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid18 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray19 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert19 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
Eduardo Rodriguez19 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell19 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green20 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson20 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman20 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres21 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard21 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson21 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer22 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia22 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen22 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers22 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers22 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers23 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar23 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark24 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB1 day ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB1 day ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith1 day ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti1 day ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga1 day ago

Throws Wednesday
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More