Houston Texans: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

The Houston Texans were undoubtedly one of the most disappointing teams during the 2013 season. The offense completely fell apart due to horrific play out of starting quarterback Matt Schaub and a season ending injury to star running back Arian Foster. Despite those setbacks, wide receiver Andre Johnson still managed to put together a decent enough year that kept him fantasy relevant. The 2014 campaign should be a quick turnaround for the Texans under new Head Coach Bill O’Brien who should have Houston fans hoping for a Kansas City Chiefs-esque worst-to-first transition. Hopefully, that would also translate to a bounce back year for Foster and another solid performance from Andre Johnson for fantasy owners.

Houston Texans Offseason Changes

Offseason Acquisitions – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

No Longer on the Roster – QB Matt Schaub, RB Ben Tate, TE Owen Daniels

Coaching Changes – New Head Coach Bill O’Brien

Houston Texans Quarterbacks

If I could sum this section up by simply writing the word “nope” I would but there actually is some relevant information to convey here. With Matt Schaub off to throw pick-sixes in Oakland, newfound starter Ryan Fitzpatrick hopes to pass the ball to his own team in Houston. Fitzpatrick, as you may recall, was given a pretty fat contract by the Buffalo Bills a few years back but he never really lived up to the hype. Fitzpatrick is an average quarterback at best but luckily for him he doesn’t really need to be much better than that.

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s game plan sheet should have three things written on it: 1) Don’t turn the ball over. 2) Hand the ball off to Arian Foster. 3) Throw the ball to Andre Johnson when told to throw the ball to Andre Johnson.  That’s basically all he needs to do and he’s smart enough to handle all that (he did go to Harvard, after all.) What I’m saying here is to forget about Ryan Fitzpatrick’s own fantasy value and consider that he is competent enough to aid the two fantasy relevant players on the team in Foster and Jonson. He’ll do just enough to get Andre the ball when necessary and keep the defense honest so they don’t hone in on Foster every play.

Houston Texans Wide Receivers

Despite all the interceptions and quarterback changes, Andre Johnson managed to piece together a respectable fantasy season. Andre somehow finished the year seventh in receiving yards with a whopping 1,407. It’s a surprising statistic when you consider just how awful the Texans looked throughout most of the year but real life success or lack thereof doesn’t always correlate to fantasy. Now, the main reason for Johnson’s success is the fact that he was second in targets with 181 which is obviously a lot. It’s expected Bill O’Brien’s offense will be a run-heavy attack so it’s fair to expect a slight decrease in both categories but not enough to write off Johnson completely as he is still far and away their most talented receiver.

With Johnson’s holdout over, the main concerns regarding his fantasy value stem from his age and the guy throwing him the ball. The age is the more legit concern given that it’s always better to be a year early than a year late on predicting a player’s decline. At 33, Andre Johnson will start to show his age on the field fairly soon so no one should expect him to be the player he once was. In fact, I believe that’s a fair reason to lower him slightly passed his borderline top 10 ranking and move him closer toward the late teens.

As for the quarterback play, Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t really be any worse than Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, or Case Keenum can he? At worst it’ll be more of the same from the QB position, which Andre has shown he can play through and still put up good enough numbers. It’s best to simply temper your expectations when it comes to drafting Andre Johnson as he should be treated more as a WR2 than the surefire WR1 he once was.

Playing opposite Andre Johnson is fellow wide receiver and second year player DeAndre Hopkins. Year after year the “other guy” in Houston has been touted as a potential sleeper given that he would be playing alongside a superstar wide receiver. That’s never really worked out for any of those so-called sleepers but that’s not to say Hopkins shouldn’t be rostered for depth purposes. It’s hard to envision a scenario where both of these guys are usable in any given week but Hopkins has enough talent to get you through a bye week or injury if you’re really hurting.

Houston Texans Running Backs

This is absolutely the make or break year for Arian Foster as a fantasy first rounder. I once joked with a friend that if Arian Foster gets hurt again this year after seemingly being back to a consensus first rounder he should just change his name to Matt Kemp. For those unaware, Matt Kemp is an outfielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers who was once touted as a must-draft in the first round of fantasy baseball but has since fallen off the face of the planet due to injuries.

If Foster were to fall victim to another injury of any caliber this year that would certainly be his fate. Luckily for Foster, it appears a clean bill of health is in order after his season ending back injury. The run-oriented offense of Bill O’Brien should favor Foster’s abilities for as long as he can stay healthy. Foster’s 15 touchdowns and 1,424 yards in 2012 offer a glimmer of hope that he can get back to the superstar he once was and his ranking reflects that.

Foster is viewed as being one of the last running backs worth taking in the first round before considering drafting a different position entirely. If he’s 100% healthy by the time of your draft, you should feel confident taking him with the 8^th or 9^th pick. Longtime handcuff and fantasy vulture Ben Tate has since left for Cleveland and the Texans replaced him with former Giant Andre Brown (who's since been cut). Should anything happen to Foster, Jonathan Grimes is the RB handcuff who will benefit most.

Houston Texans Rookies & Tight Ends

Many expected the Texans to take a quarterback with their number one overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft but they instead opted for defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. It was a wise move for sure but that basically means there isn’t much else to see as far as rookies go.

The tight end position also falls completely flat in Houston now that Owen Daniels is gone. The Texans did draft rookie tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz out of Iowa in the third round so it’s possible they stick him with the first team offense right away. As far as fantasy is concerned, the tight end position is one to ignore in Houston.

Houston Texans in Summary

There aren’t many teams in the NFL with shoddy quarterback play who still net you stellar fantasy options at other positions. The thing is, people seem to be viewing Ryan Fitzpatrick as a downgrade from whatever it was you would call the trifecta of QBs they had last year when in reality he’s at least on the same level. Fitzpatrick should have little to no impact on the production of Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. They are both talented players who have proven they can play through even the worst of offensive situations and still be productive. Look for both guys to continue to do the same during the 2014 season.