RADIO
You know, I probably put way more effort into this intro for this column than is necessary. Most people probably just skip down to where the list begins and don't even read this first part. So I could really say whatever I want here. Pancakes. Shih Tzu. Coconuts.
Anyways, back to baseball: looking back at Week 10's column, it's somewhat of a tossup as to who was the winner that week. On one hand you have Dane Dunning, who allowed two runs and struck out nine over 9 2/3 innings, but did not factor into the decision in either start. On the other hand you've got Mike Minor, who went 1-1 and allowed seven runs with 12 strikeouts over 13 innings of work. Either way they were the best two choices from that week. As for Week 11, Matthew Boyd is the current leader after allowing one unearned run with three strikeouts over six innings to earn the win over Seattle. That being said, Antonio Senzatela had a decent outing as well, allowing four runs over six innings with eight strikeouts against the Marlins.
And now we'll dive into Week 12's two-start streamers. Check it out.
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Week 12 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Jordan Montgomery, NYY - 46% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ TOR, vs OAK
Montgomery got off to a rough start this year, going 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and a 22 percent strikeout rate over 26 2/3 innings across five starts in April. But over his last four starts things have looked like they're turning around a bit, as he's gone 1-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 24.7 percent strikeout rate over 23 2/3 innings of work. And while not necessarily the most ideal, his 3.89 xERA is his lowest mark since 2018, and he's also done a good job at limiting walks as his 5.6 percent walk rate ranks in the 87th percentile.
He'll start things off by heading on the road for a rematch with Toronto, against whom he allowed three runs and struck out one over 4 2/3 innings in his start last month. The bad news for Montgomery is that it looks like it's going to be another tough start, as not only are the Blue Jays hitting better at home (.272/.341/.483) than on the road (.244/.305/.393), they have also been heating up at the plate since he last faced them, as Toronto is slashing .274/.338/.442 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over their last 11 games. And while it isn't much of a difference and didn't seem to help him much his last time out, Toronto is hitting slightly worse against left-handed pitching (.255/.319/.414) than against right-handed pitching (.258/.322/.440) this year.
In his second start of the week, Montgomery theoretically should be in for a rough time against Oakland, as not only are they hitting better against left-handed pitching (.240/.319/.424) than against right-handers (.225/.310/.393), they are also hitting better on the road (.255/.320/.451) than at home (.210/.308/.366). What could benefit Montgomery against the Athletics though is that they have been in the midst of a power slump recently, posting a .371 slugging percentage and recording only 36 extra-base hits over their last 13 games.
Granted neither of these matchups seem particularly great for Montgomery, with his outing against Oakland likely the better start of the two this week. However I'm willing to bet on Montgomery continuing his recent streak of success, and post a pair of good starts in Week 12. I'm not sure I'd call him the top play of this week's column, but he should still be a solid guy to roster.
Adam Wainwright, STL - 41% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs MIA, @ ATL
For a guy who is 39 years old, Wainwright has been having a pretty solid season on the mound in 2021. He's currently 4-5 with a 4.03 ERA and a 21.8 percent strikeout rate — his highest mark since 2018. His last four starts have gone particularly well, as he has gone 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 27 innings in that span. He's been helped this year by the fact that batters aren't making good contact off of him, as his .241 xBA and 36.4 percent hard-hit rate are his best marks since 2018, while his 8.3 degree launch angle is the lowest of his career in the Statcast era, and his best mark since 2017.
Wainwright will face off against a pair of NL East opponents this week, starting with a Miami team that has begun to heat up at the plate recently. Over their last 11 games, the Marlins are slashing .261/.329/.426 while averaging 4.1 runs per game and 1.2 home runs per game in that span. The home runs are worth mentioning, because Wainwright sports a career-worst 16.7 percent HR/FB rate this season. He won't get much help with the lefty-righty splits, as the Marlins are hitting slightly better against right-handed pitchers (.238/.308/.376) than against left-handers (.234/.294/.381). However they are hitting far worse on the road (.222/.292/.378) than at home (.255/.321/.376), which is a point in Wainwright's favor.
After Miami, Wainwright will head out on the road to face an Atlanta squad that is facing a similar power slump to Oakland recently. Over their last 11 games, Atlanta sports a .367 slugging percentage — dropping their season mark from .438 to .429 over that span — and has 27 extra-base hits over that span. The Braves are hitting slightly better at home (.244/.322/.467) than on the road (.224/.309/.378), however Wainwright will benefit from the fact that Atlanta is hitting worse this season against right-handers (.233/.320/.426) than against left-handers (.241/.305/.437).
I might be crazy here, but between Wainwright and Montgomery this week, I think I give the slight edge to Wainwright as being the better play. If he makes it through his start against Miami without getting blown up, I think he will have a solid week in Week 12.
Week 12 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Jake Arrieta, CHC - 23% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ NYM, vs MIA
I'm going to be upfront with you guys here — Arrieta is the riskiest play this week. He's currently got a 4.97 ERA and 5.74 xERA, and his 8.9 percent walk rate is his worst mark since 2016 while his .513 xSLG is the worst mark of his career in the Statcast era. Coming off a solid performance against San Diego his last time out (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K), he'll get his second matchup of the season with the Mets. His first time out he pitched well against New York, limiting them to one run over five innings while striking out four. However, the Mets have heated up at the plate considerably since then, as they are currently slashing .281/.336/.528 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over their last 10 games. That being said, five of those 10 games came against Arizona and Baltimore — which own the two worst team ERAs in the majors. After New York, Arrieta will take on the Marlins, where he will deal with the same lefty-righty and home-road splits that Wainwright will be dealing with this week.
Arrieta is the riskiest play this week, but I think he could also surprise some people. He's worth taking a shot on in deeper formats, but his chances of success are probably a coin toss at best..
Jake Odorizzi, HOU - 14% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs TEX, vs CHW
It's been a rough start to the year for Odorizzi — mostly due to injury. He is currently 1-3 and owns a 6.75 ERA, but he looked like he might be turning things around in his latest start against Boston, where he allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six to earn his first win of the season. He'll kick off the week against a weak Rangers squad that is slashing .189/.250/.280 and averaging 2.9 runs per game over their last 10 games. Not only will it be a nice matchup against a struggling offense, the Rangers are also hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.223/.300/.369) than against lefties (.235/.294/.370) this season. After that start, he'll take on a White Sox club that is reeling from the news that their rising star second baseman Nick Madrigal could be out for the rest of the season. Fortunately Odorizzi is a right-hander, as Chicago is feasting on left-handed pitching (.269/.345/.459) as opposed to righties (.247/.336/.390).
Even though Odorizzi will benefit from lefty-righty splits against Chicago, that still figures to be a tough start for him. Managers who look to Odorizzi in Week 12 should go in banking on him to put up a great start against Texas, and then hope to escape relatively unscathed against Chicago.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN - 11% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ MIL, @ SDP
I really like Gutierrez's chances in Week 12. For starters, he's gotten his major league career off to a great start by going 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. On top of that, his last start was against Milwaukee, where he limited the Brewers to two runs over seven innings with seven strikeouts. So he'll open the week up with a rematch against Milwaukee right away. Once again Gutierrez will benefit from the Brewers' struggles to hit right-handed pitching (.209/.294/.362), but on top of that, this time Gutierrez will get the added benefit from the fact that Milwaukee is hitting worse at home (.208/.295/.368) than on the road (.217/.306/.379). After Milwaukee, he'll make his first appearance against the Padres, who have been scuffling at the plate as of late. Over their last 17 games, the Padres are slashing .204/.281/.326 while averaging 3.9 runs per game and going 7-10 in that span. On top of that, San Diego has hit slightly worse at home this year (.230/.327/.358) than on the road (.235/.308/.385).
Gutierrez looks to me to be the best option this week, based on his previous success against Milwaukee and the recent struggles of San Diego. Honestly I like his potential for the rest of the season enough that I might consider rostering him full time beyond Week 12, assuming he puts up the numbers I expect he will.
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