RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Valero Texas Open His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! The WGC-Match Play always seems to throw some huge surprises our way and this year's edition was no different, as Billy Horschel emerged from the bracket madness to defeat Scottie Scheffler in the final and take home the victory. Horschel is a former FedEx Cup champion that runs hot and cold. The veteran reminded us of that upside last week.
With the schedule's only match-play event out of the way, we now head to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, as the countdown to the Masters begins!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
Valero Texas Open Overview
It's hard to discuss this week's Valero Texas Open without peeking ahead to next week's Masters. The Valero shouldn't be confused with the Houston Open - the tournament that held the spot before the Masters for many years. The San Antonio-based Valero picked up the pre-Masters honors in 2019 and is set to resume this year after losing the 2020 event to COVID-19.
With many of golf's biggest stars making last week's WGC-Match Play their final start before the trip to Augusta, the Valero is fairly low on star power. However, Dustin Johnson's last-minute decision to tee it up this week adds some much-needed pop to a field that includes Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, and defending Valero champ, Corey Conners.
This won't exactly be an 'easy warmup' for Augusta National, as TPC San Antonio has some teeth and can be one of the tougher tests on the PGA Tour schedule if the wind picks up. We must also take into consideration a player's motivation this week. Are they trying to play their way into the Masters or simply tuning up their game in preparation for the first major of the season? Miracles do happen, as we've seen tons of guys punch tickets to the Masters over the years (Rickie Fowler this week??). It's an interesting tournament and one I'm ready to dive into, so let's tee it up!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Par 72 - 7,494 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Pete Dye & Greg Norman
Opened in 2010, this Pete Dye/Greg Norman design (with an assist from Sergio Garcia) immediately found its way into the PGA Tour rotation and has hosted this event since it opened. Norman incorporated the natural terrain to create a layout that's long and tough. It's length definitely gives a bump to the bombers, though we have seen precise ball strikers - such as 2019 winner, Corey Conners, thrive here in recent years due to course conditions. The Par-5's are no picnic, as all four play almost 600 yards and don't yield the amount of birdies and eagles that we normally see on the Tour. The wind is always a huge factor at TPC San Antonio, just as Norman intended with his design. It's somewhat of a fool's errand trying to predict the weather, especially wind, but it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast for any possible tee-time draw advantage. The big takeaway this week is: ball striking, ball striking, and more ball striking.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Champions
- 2020: Cancelled
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
- 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
- 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
- 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
The Horse
Jordan Spieth
Notable Course History: T30 (2019), 2nd ('15), T10 ('14)
DraftKings Price: $10,700
Winston Churchill said, “If you’re going through hell, keep going.” To his credit, Jordan Spieth has persevered through the fire for the last several years. Still just 27-years-old, it feels as though Spieth has already lived a hundred golfing lives, with prodigy, golden boy, comeback kid, and tragic figure being just a few of the incarnations we’ve seen from the Texan.
If we push aside all of the narrative arcs that surround Spieth - especially the potential drama that lies ahead next week at Augusta National - it’s clear that his game is in a terrific space right now. He heads to this week’s Valero Texas Open with his irons firing in a way that we haven’t seen from him in years. Spieth has gained an average of 4.5 strokes on Approach over his last five tournaments, his best output with the irons in a five-event window since the summer of 2017, a stretch in which he won the Travelers and the Open Championship. Perhaps most importantly, the sharp Approach play makes Spieth’s recent spike in success feel real and sustainable.
He’ll try to keep things going this week at TPC San Antonio, a course where he posted a T30 in 2019 after a three-year absence following a runner-up finish in 2015 and a top-10 in ‘14. Perhaps deep down we don’t want Spieth to “waste” any magic this week with the Masters on the horizon, but we all know it doesn’t work like that in the real world, and at this point, the 27-year-old will take a win any time - and any place - he can get one.
The Ponies
Corey Conners
Notable Course History: Win ('19), T26 ('18)
DraftKings Price: $9,500
Former champs are a bit of a layup for this article, as they obviously have great course history. However, I felt we needed to touch on Corey Conners this week due to not only his strong track record at TPC San Antonio, but because of his white-hot form as of late.
Conners heads to the Valero on the heels of two sparkling performances in his last two stroke-play starts, a T7 at THE PLAYERS and a T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational...big time results on tough golf courses against elite fields. The Canadian’s play shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, as he closed out 2020 on an absolute HEATER, racking up top-10 finishes in three of his last five starts of the year. As always, his elite ball-striking is fueling his success. Conners ranks first in this Valero field in SG: T2G, Total, & Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. TPC San Antonio is notoriously a ball-strikers paradise - and obviously a great fit for him - so I expect to see another strong performance from the Canadian this week.
Ryan Palmer
Notable Course History: M/C ('19), M/C ('18), T6 ('17), T4 ('16), T6 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $9,400
It's a quasi-homecoming this week for Texas native, Ryan Palmer. Despite missing the cut in his last two Valero Open starts, the veteran should feel right at home on a golf course where he logged three consecutive top-six finishes between 2015 and 2017.
The 44-year-old has experienced something of a career resurgence over the past year with runner-up finishes at the 2020 Memorial and this year’s Farmers highlighting some impressive results. Palmer posted a T17 at THE PLAYERS in his most recent stroke-play event and looked sharp in the WGC-Match Play before eventually falling to Jon Rahm in the Group Stage. He’s gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in three of his last four starts and should be considered a serious threat this week.
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Charley Hoffman
Notable Course History: 2nd ('19), Win ('16), T11 ('15), T3 ('13), T2 ('11)
DraftKings Price: $9,200
A true Valero Texas Open legend, Charley Hoffman has been dominant in this event and on this TPC San Antonio layout. The Blonde Bomber (I don’t think anybody has ever actually called him that, but we’re rolling with it) won the Valero in 2016 and has been ridiculously-good good on this layout, posting three top-three finishes, four top-13s, and never missing a cut over 10 starts since 2010.
In addition to the ultra-elite course history, Hoffman has demonstrated encouraging form in 2021. He’s posted two top-10s and a couple of top-20s over seven starts this year. The vet is finding success due to his razor-sharp ball striking. He’s grades out first in this field in SG: Approach over the last 12 & 24 rounds, while averaging 3.2 strokes gained T2G over his last five tournaments.
Chris Kirk
Notable Course History: M/C ('19), T8 ('18), M/C ('17), T13 ('16), T8 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $8,600
My boy! I’ve been all aboard the Chris Kirk Express this year and I ain’t jumping off now. Not when our hero heads to a TPC San Antonio layout on which he’s posted three top-13 finishes in his last five Valero starts.
Kirk has battled a lot of off-the-course issues over the past year or so and his dramatic T2 at the Sony Open earlier this year allowed him to keep his PGA Tour card. It was one of the most impressive performances under pressure that I’ve ever seen in professional golf. The former Georgia Bulldog has managed to carry that momentum into 2021, posting a top-10 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and top-25s at the AmEx, AT&T, and Honda. Kirk was also right in the thick of things at the PLAYERS before a horrible final round sent him tumbling down the leaderboard.
As his Valero track record - and his recent performance at the breezy Honda Classic - illustrates, Kirk is very comfortable both on this golf course and with any winds that might kick up this week. He grades out first in this field in the all-important Strokes Gained: Tee To Green metric over the last 12 rounds. A win in San Antonio and a trip to the Masters would be an unbelievable addition to what might already be the best story in golf this year.
Kevin Chappell
Notable Course History: T30 ('18), Win ('17), M/C ('16), T4 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $6,900
Kevin Chappell's 2017 win in this event felt like the start of something for a very talented player that had made a career of logging runner-up finishes in some HUGE events (THE PLAYERS, Memorial, API, & TOUR Championship to name a few). Unfortunately, Chappell hasn't found the winner's circle since his win at the '17 Valero due to an extremely scary back injury that forced him to undergo microdiscectomy surgery in 2018. There have been a few highlights since his return to the PGA Tour - a 59 at The Greenbrier in 2019 stands out - but he's failed to find the consistent form that had him on the cusp of being an elite player at the time of the injury. If we're looking to take a sub-$7k shot on DraftKings this week, Chappell has an elite record at TPC San Antonio, has gained strokes on Approach in each of his last two, and posted his best finish (a T13 at the Honda Classic) in nearly 18 months the last time he teed it up.
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