RADIO
Thanksgiving Day is rapidly approaching and the NBA is loading up tonight's schedule with 12 games so they can take Turkey Day off! Today is the infamous busiest travel day in the U.S. with everyone heading home to visit family. It's also a big night for sharing drinks with friends and catching up, so I bet you're going to want some action on the NBA games that you plan on watching at the bar with old friends later this evening, right?
I'm rolling with two ATS picks and two totals today in addition to the ML parlay and underdog teaser that I include in every article. If you're looking for player props, consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out something each evening Monday through Friday, too.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 37-39
- Against the Spread: 19-19
- Game/Team Totals: 6-9
- Moneyline Parlay: 5-9
- Teasers: 11-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves (-1) @ Indiana Pacers (235.5 total)
Let's start off with a banger. This game should be high scoring and Vegas certainly expects it to be with this total already up over 235 points. The Wolves are favored on the road here slightly, but we have to ask ourselves, "why?" Minnesota has been largely disappointing this year compared to their preseason expectations. Meanwhile, the Pacers have been thriving behind their young star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Is Minnesota getting the nod here just based on their perceived talent?
The Pacers sport the better record (10-6 vs. 9-8) and have been the third-best team in ATS this season, going 11-5. Indiana has won five straight and seven of their last eight games. They're getting great interior defense from Myles Turner, some key shot-making from Buddy Hield, and some awesome production off the bench from Bennedict Mathurin.
Minnesota seems to be righting the ship, having won four in a row also. However, they're still just 6-11 ATS this season and 3-4 on the road. I think this game is a battle, but my lean is to roll with the Pacers here at home. Haliburton is just so good and is making everyone else in Indiana better. Indy has been the better overall team this year so far (if only slightly) and this feels like a spot where Minnesota could let down their guard a bit.
The Pick: IND ML (-105 DK)
Sacramento Kings (+5.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (238.5 total)
The Kings are like Rodney Dangerfield, they never get any respect! They just beat Memphis last night on the road and now they're 5.5-point dogs against Atlanta? When are we just going to admit that the Kings are good this year? They're 12-4 ATS and have won seven straight. I know a lot of folks are taking the angle of "they're playing with house money, jump off before they come crashing down." And I get that. But they're healthy and rolling right now and I don't see any reason to think they won't compete with Atlanta tonight in a game that features the highest total on the board.
This one should be fun for DFS and it's in the lead for the best game environment of the season so far this year in my model. I looked for a lot of reasons to fade the Kings this morning, but they've been good on the road and they've won their only other game in the second half of a back-to-back. Sometimes you just have to believe in a team and what we are seeing from Sacto right now is something pretty special. Once again, Hawks fans, nothing against Atlanta here and they very well could win. But this game should go down to the wire. I'll take the hottest team in the league with the points, please!
The Pick: SAC +5.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Denver Nuggets (+4.5) @ OKC Thunder (229 total)
We finally have a few totals that I like tonight and as we get larger samples of data incorporated into the models, I will feel better about taking some stands on totals nightly. Denver is coming off a bad loss to Detroit last night, but perhaps we can cut them a little slack since both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were making their first appearances in a week after missing multiple games. Denver has been a total mess with injuries to start the year as Jeff Green is now out indefinitely and Bones Hyland left last night's game early.
Denver's offense should bounce back tonight against an OKC team that is allowing 117 points per game this season and 122 points over their last 10 contests. The Thunder are playing with pace this year and have hit the over in 12 of their 17 games this season, the most in the NBA!
These teams have actually met twice already this season with both games going over the current total (242 and 232 points to be exact). I expect another high-scoring affair here and I would recommend grabbing this total now before it jumps too high, let's see if we can get some CLV by gametime.
The Pick: OVER 229 (-110 DK), good up to 231
Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ Charlotte Hornets (214 total)
The Sixers surprised everyone last night by taking down the Nets 115-106 without their best three players (Embiid, Harden, and Maxey). They probably played a bit above their heads on offense, but it's not as if they don't have a talented group of scorers left as Shake Milton, De'Anthony Melton, and Tobias Harris are all guys who could have bigger roles on other teams. Paul Reed was the real story as he came off the bench and dominated with 19 points and 10 boards and won me some money in DFS (play him again tonight, please).
This total just feels really low considering that Philly was willing to play faster on offense than they usually do with Harden and/or Embiid. This small-ball Philly team probably stands the best chance of winning if they do push the pace and draw Charlotte into a faster game environment.
Philly's defense also takes a big hit without Embiid, so I like Charlotte's chances of doing their fair share of scoring here, too. LaMelo Ball is out, but Rozier, Hayward, and company should be able to find success in their matchups. When one or both teams are playing on no rest, I tend to favor the over, too. I think Philly can hang (and maybe even win) but the bet here is the over.
The Pick: OVER 214 (-110 DK), good up to 217
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Cleveland + Golden State + Utah + New Orleans = (+151 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: PHILLY +8.5, SACTO +10, OKC +7 = (+150 DraftKings)
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