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We've reached the penultimate big Friday night slate of the regular season, and fortunately, there are still plenty of teams with postseason-related incentive. Pitcher props are a bit trickier this time of season with some workloads being managed carefully, but I've honed in on two arms I feel are in good spots and a trio of hitters that are in favorable circumstances on paper as well.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, September 22, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Framber Valdez To Record A Win (+160 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Astros are in a dogfight for the top spot in the AL West, holding just a half-game lead over the Rangers and Mariners entering Friday. Therefore, Valdez should be leaned on for a normal workload in his home park, where he's been at his best. The left-hander has a 2.98 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 across 96.2 innings at Minute Maid Park.
Houston is up to a massive -240 favorite for Friday's matchup against Cole Ragans and the Royals, and that number alone certainly supports the notion Valdez should have a good chance at victory. It's also worth noting the southpaw is in the midst of an excellent stretch of pitching that's seen him go at least six innings in five straight starts -- including seven frames in four of them -- and generate a 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 0.5 HR/9 across 34 innings.
Chris Sale OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Sale gets a crack at his old White Sox squad Friday and checks in having pitched to a 5-2 record, 3.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 across the 69.2 innings covering his 13 outings dating back to April 30. The veteran left-hander has gone at least 5.2 innings (17 outs) in six of 18 starts, and he's flashed his best swing-and-miss stuff at home in the form of a 12.3 K/9.
The underachieving White Sox have been in especially poor form against left-handed pitching on the road in the second half of the season, posting an MLB-high 28.5 percent strikeout rate, .255 wOBA, -12.9 wRAA and anemic .070 ISO in that split since the All-Star break. Sale has held current Chicago bats to a collective .143 average and .351 OPS across 58 career encounters as well, certainly upping the chances of a successful night on the mound.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Orlando Arcia OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+160 Bet365 SportsBook) or To Hit A HR (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arcia has been a beneficiary of his spot in what is arguably the most lethal lineup in baseball, posting a .268 average, .753 OPS and career highs in extra-base hits (41), home runs (17) and RBI (61). The veteran has been at his best against left-handed arms, which he's tormented for a .308 average, 1.026 OPS and eight of those round-trippers over a sample of 105 plate appearances.
That puts Arcia into a favorable scenario against Nationals starting southpaw Patrick Corbin, who's allowed a .322 average and .355 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his home park. Meanwhile, Arcia has 199 total bases in 132 games, an average of exactly 1.5 per contest, and the Braves are projected for a robust 5.7 runs in Friday night's matchup.
Considering Arcia also owns a .500 average with a double and two homers against Corbin in 21 career plate appearances, either one of these two props looks appealing at great prices.
Christian Walker OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110 DraftKings SportsBook) or To Hit A HR (+480 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Walker is enjoying another prolific season that includes 30 homers, 94 RBI and a career-high 144 hits. The prodigious slugger also boasts a .261 average and .830 OPS across 149 games, making him a dangerous adversary for Yankees starter Luke Weaver on Friday night. Weaver has been struggling all season while spending time with three teams, pitching to a 2-5 record, 6.77 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 2.1 HR/9.
Walker has already laced a pair of doubles against Weaver in four career encounters, and the former boasts a .265 average and .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching overall. He's also averaging 1.6 hits + runs + RBI per game versus righties for the season. In turn, Weaver has yielded a .327 average and .407 wOBA to righty bats, with 39 of the 83 hits he's conceded in that sample going for extra bases.
Walker hits in the heart of the D-Backs lineup and Arizona's projected run total has risen from 3.6 to 4.1 over the course of Friday morning, making him an intriguing bet to deliver on this prop.
Thairo Estrada OVER 0.5 Total Singles (-115 Bet365 SportsBook)
Estrada is enjoying another solid and well-rounded offensive season that's seen him post a career-best .276 average and 40 extra-base hits, along with a solid .740 OPS. He's been at his best against left-handed pitching on the road, posting a .328 average and .365 wOBA in that split while striking out at just a 14.9 percent clip.
Estrada will get a crack at two left-handers Friday, as Caleb Ferguson will serve as the Dodgers' opener before giving way to Ryan Yarbrough as the bulk reliever. Estrada has produced singles on 87 of his 127 hits this season, and banking on him getting at least one despite facing a pair of quality southpaws isn't a very risky bet overall.
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