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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Sunday, May 21, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
I came really close to a perfect 5-0 on pitcher props yesterday, but I woke up this morning to see Louie Varland couldn't quite get it done against the Halos in the late game. I hope you ran the Braxton Garrett ladder up to 8 because he got all the way there for us and that 8+ rung was worth +800 on FanDuel. I did miss both my main hitters, but Anthony Rizzo came through with a late home run in the 10th inning of his game and I had mentioned him in the footnotes as one of my favorite plays once the odds came out.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, May 21, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kevin Gausman OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-130 DraftKings)
Let's kick things off with the most consistent and dominant pitcher on the board - the GAUS-MAN! Kevin gets to take on his old Baltimore team today at home and continue his quest for AL Cy Young consideration. He's only 2-3 in the win/loss columns, but the right-hander has 77 strikeouts of 55 innings pitched and a tiny WHIP of just 1.07.
Kevin Gausman, 7th, 8th and 9th Ks pic.twitter.com/pPGjoaHIeW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 17, 2023
His ERA is 3.27 and it's only that high because of two bad starts where he gave up a few big innings early in those games. In his other seven starts, he's allowed just five earned runs COMBINED. So when he's on, he's absolutely been dominant and he has already collected 10+ strikeouts in four separate starts. Gausman's splitter is one of the best pitches in baseball, if you haven't watched him pitch the last few seasons, do yourself a favor and tune in today.
We are still getting him at 6.5, which is an auto-play for me against any team with an average or worse K%. Baltimore is sitting at 22% which is just slightly worse than the league average, so you know I am firing up Gausman today. He's one of my top plays today and since we've seen him go up to double digits multiple times, I certainly have some interest in laddering him up to 10 strikeouts as well.
Jesus Luzardo OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
You know we are going back to this spot against the Giants again today, right? After Braxton Garrett got 8 Giants yesterday, we have to love Luzardo's chances of getting 6+ today.
Luzardo is a better strikeout pitcher than Garrett as he owns a 25% K% on the year and a solid 13.2% SwStr%. He managed to get 6 Giants earlier in April when he first faced them, and that was in only 4.1 innings of work as he ran up a high pitch count and got yanked early.
He's in much better form lately, having gone six solid innings in each of his last two starts against Arizona and Washington, allowing only one run in each start. We are eating a lot of juice here, but Luzardo should really be 6.5 in this spot, so I am comfortable with it and I will be parlaying it with some others to get better odds as well.
George Kirby OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-125 DraftKings)
Yesterday, we attacked the Braves successfully with Logan Gilbert, who smashed his prop (whether you had him at 4.5 or 5.5) with 9 strikeouts against Atlanta. Today, we are going back to the well with a good young pitcher who has too low of a number here with Kirby.
George Kirby, Disgusting 83mph Curveball. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/Yr0G3eVxQU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 16, 2023
Kirby started slow in the strikeout department this year, but his control has been incredible as he has walked just four hitters on the entire season thus far. He was one of my favorite breakout pitchers in the preseason and it's starting to look like it's definitely happening for Kirby who owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first 51 innings.
His 8.5% SwStr% is a concern, I'll admit, when we are looking for guys with dominant stuff we want to see that number up around 11-12% or higher. However, I think he will continue to improve upon that number as the season goes along. His recent form is excellent, as he's struck out five or more in four of his last five starts, including 9 against Texas and 6 against a really good Boston lineup.
We just need five from Kirby today, and I think his ability to keep runners off the bases and pitch deep into games (he's gone 6+ innings in all but one start) give him a great chance of getting there.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
Seager missed an entire month of the season, but he has shown absolutely no rust at all in his return. The Texas offense has been bludgeoning Colorado in this series and I would expect that to continue as the Rockies turn to Connor Seabold, a youngster with an ERA over 5.0 and only a 15% strikeout rate.
Seager was 1-4 on Friday with a two-run double then went 3-4 last night with a home run and two more RBI. When healthy, he's simply one of the better hitters in baseball and I love the odds we are getting here on him in this matchup. A couple of singles or one extra-base hit and we cash this prop. With the way Texas is hitting, I think Seager could be in line for another five plate appearances today, too, giving him plenty of chances to get it done.
Teoscar Hernandez OVER 1.5 hits + runs+ RBI (-130 DraftKings)
I love betting on Teoscar vs. lefties, I can't help myself. After a really cold start to the season, the lefty-masher has started to come on and has pulled his average up to .244 with 8 home runs and 24 RBI. He'll face the young Southpaw from Atlanta, Jared Shuster, today. Shuster has struggled with control and has yet to show he can miss bats at the major league level.
Meanwhile, Hernandez is on a bit of a roll in terms of hitting the over on this prop. He has 2+ runs/hits/RBI in seven of his last eight games. I expect there to be runners on base for him at least once or twice today and so he should have some RBI opportunities and I'm going with this prop instead of the total base prop just to give us a little more wiggle room on how he gets it done.
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money! If you're looking for more picks every day, hit me up on Twitter about my daily betting newsletter on Substack!
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