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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, Sept 4, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
It's a healthy 11-game MLB schedule on deck so let's dive head-first into the action with some hitter and pitcher props!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, Sept. 4, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Corbin Burnes to earn a win (-105, DraftKings sportsbook) + under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145, DraftKings sportsbook)
The Milwaukee Brewers need all the wins they can get as they battle for a division title and they'll look for their ace to guide them to victory Monday night.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the ball in this one tonight and he will have a nice opportunity to grab his 10th win of the season in a favorable matchup. While Burnes carries a solid 3.55 ERA into action, the Pirates sit 22nd with a .307 wOBA on the season. Furthermore, they rank 23rd with a .306 wOBA in the season's second half while they maintain a .307 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
In other words, this offense has simply been no good, especially after a hot start.
Burnes hasn't been at his very best this season but he has allowed two earned runs or fewer more often than not. The righty has allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts and has tossed 13 innings of four-run ball with a 1-0 record in his last two starts against these Pirates.
Add it up and we'll back Burnes in a pair of wagers on Monday in Pittsburgh.
Grayson Rodriguez to earn a win (+115, DraftKings sportsbook)
Another pitcher who should be able to work his way to victory tonight is Orioles rookie standout Grayson Rodriguez.
The hard-throwing youngster takes on what is officially a watered-down Angels offense. They sit in a share of ninth with a .326 wOBA on the season but they're also tied for 17th with a .311 wOBA since the All-Star break. Remember, there's no Mike Trout at the moment while the likes of Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk won't be in the lineup this evening.
As for Rodriguez, he sports a 5.03 ERA across 18 starts on the season. However, he has also worked to a 4.43 FIP and 4.15 SIERA, both of which suggest he should see improved results moving forward. Perhaps that positive regression had already kicked in as Gray-Rod has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts with four earned runs allowed over his last three outings spanning 19 innings of work.
The Orioles should absolutely win this one tonight and we'll look for the red-hot Rodriguez to notch his fifth win on the campaign.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Christian Yelich over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Not only should Corbin Burnes but able to dominate this Pirates lineup but he should also get his fair share of run support, as well.
Let's start with leadoff man Christian Yelich who should be in for a big night at the plate. Yelich has enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back season in 2023 as he's hitting .278 with 17 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and an .806 OPS across 132 games on the season, production that grades out 18% above league average, as per his 118 wRC+.
That said, he has also been far better against right-handed pitching as he gets set to take on 24-year-old righty Luis L. Ortiz. Not only does Ortiz sport a 5.08 ERA, 5.79 FIP, 5.49 SIERA, and a tiny 3.8% K-BB% on the season, but Yelich is hitting .298 with an .880 OPS and 138 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching.
Yelich appears to be in a fantastic spot to litter the scorecard in this one tonight.
Trea Turner over 1.5 total bases (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
Trea Turner is back.
The all-world shortstop unusually struggled for a significant portion of the 2023 season but has been dynamite of late. In 27 games in the month of August, Turner hit .324 with nine home runs and a 1.043 OPS. Through three games in the month of September, Turner has slugged a pair of homers while going 5-for-14 (.357) in that time. In the season's second half, Turner is hitting .287 with an .893 OPS across 46 games.
Turner will work against veteran Rich Hill on Monday night. Hill has scuffled this season, tossing a 5.26 ERA across 137 innings of work while also posting a 4.86 SIERA. He has particularly struggled versus right-handed hitters, yielding an .847 OPS to righties on the season.
Let's look for Turner to stay white-hot against a scuffling lefty tonight in San Diego.
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