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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/7/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers, we're back for another day of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 7th, 2022.
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I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 61-65-2, -17.96 units
- Sides: 31-34-1, -13.77 units
- Totals: 29-31-1, -5.89 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Orioles
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: BAL +130
TOR: Alek Manoah | BAL: Dean Kremer
We went 1-1 yesterday, with the Braves really giving us the runaround after scoring nine runs in the first five innings, but allowing nine as well. It's unfortunate, but we'll have to take it on the chin and get back after it again today. I'll start with another first-five play, a straight money line. I'll be backing Alek Manoah (13-7, 2.48 ERA). Manoah projects well against the Orioles today and comes into this one 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA against Baltimore in three starts this season.
On the other hand, the Orioles will be sending Dean Kremer (6-4, 3.22 ERA) to the mound. Kremer has been awesome this season but is due for regression given his 4.09 xFIP and 33.5% hard contact rate. My model expects this regression to happen tonight, as Kremer projects to a 4.51 xFIP and a 44.71% hard contact rate against the Jays this evening.
While Kremer did toss himself a gem, a seven-inning performance where he allowed just two runs while striking out six against Toronto back on August 16th, my model still gives the Blue Jays the advantage here in terms of the starting pitching matchup. The Jays also project to a .524 wOBA + ISO as well as a 39.96% hard contact rate this evening. I'll be fading the impressive Baltimore bullpen tonight, taking the Blue Jays F5 money line, which FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us -160 odds on.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 Money Line (-160) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SD -215
ARI: Tommy Henry | SD: Yu Darvish
I'll head out to San Diego for the second play of the evening, this time a first inning under. It'll be southpaw Tommy Henry's first career start against the Padres. Henry (3-3, 4.83 ERA), has been solid in the first inning, particularly on the road. While he has allowed a first-inning tally in two of six starts overall, he is perfect on the road, holding opponents scoreless in each of his three starts away from home.
Veteran starter Yu Darvish (12-7, 3.26 ERA) will take the ball for the Padres. Like Henry, Darvish has been solid in the first inning overall, but has excelled in home starts this season. He's allowed a first-inning run in seven of 25 starts overall but has been much better at home, holding opponents scoreless in nine of 11 starts.
The Diamondbacks have scored a run in the first inning in just 19% of starts on the road, and in 26% of starts overall, but in just one of their last 10 games. Conversely, the Padres have scored a first-inning run in 28% of their games at home, but in just 24% of games overall, including just three of their last 10.
My model gives the first inning under a 61.16% chance of hitting, good for odds of -157, while FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the first inning under at -115. We'll run with the value here and be on the lookout for a 2-0 evening.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. Talk to you Friday!
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