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Mark Kieffer's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
It's Monday, August 29th, and the start of another week! There is an eight-game MLB slate going on tonight at or after 6:40 pm Eastern Time. Although the series is mainly winning teams vs. losing teams, we can still find some angles on these games!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Saint Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -210
STL: Miles Mikolas| CIN: TBD/Chase Anderson
The Cardinals open up a series against Cincinnati in Cincinnati. Miles Mikolas goes on the mound with a strong chance to win the game. He has a 3.35 ERA, a 3.81 xFIP, and 3.99 SIERA this season and is solid. For the Reds, the probable starter is officially "TBD" on their website but all indications point to it being Chase Anderson. Anderson has started three games this year with a 6.75 ERA and 5.65 xFIP. That's not good.
Offensively, the Cardinals have scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They are second in OBP, sixth in ISO, and tied for second in wRC+. This is a very good offense going into arguably the best hitting environment in the league, facing a pitcher that has an xFIP close to 6.00 and has been allowing 1.88 HR/9.
Well, what happens in the event Chase Anderson gets taken out of the game? Cincinnati has the fourth-worst bullpen xFIP, and the second-worst bullpen ERA in the game right now. See you tell me.
In all honesty, I see runs scoring. Can Saint Louis score 10 themselves? I honestly think they could. Most likely Cincinnati does put up a couple of runs as Mikolas is not an Ace by any means, which means Saint Louis might have to score 6-7 for the over to hold. And I think they can do that too.
Pick: OVER 9 Runs (+102), BetRivers Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIN -118
BOS: Brayan Bello| MIN: Dylan Bundy
In Minnesota, the Red Sox and Twins open up their series. For this first game, the Red Sox are going to send Brayan Bello on the mound while the Twins will send Bundy. At first glance, we see the 7.36 ERA for Bello and the 4.56 ERA for Bundy, and might want to just smash the "over" button on this one here but that may not be a great idea.
Despite Bello's high ERA, he has a 3.76 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA. Some regression should happen. Bundy's xFIP and ERA are right in line with his 4.56 ERA, so unfortunately for Twins fans, he is just a below-average pitcher right now.
In the last 30 days, these offenses have not been great. Boston is 12th in the league in runs scored while Minnesota is 17th. Boston's ISO is 15th while Minnesota's is 17th. Boston's OBP is ninth while Minnesota's was 15th. Boston's wRC+ is 12th while Minnesota's is 14th.
The truth is that these offenses are not playing great right now. Yes, the pitchers on the mound have struggled, some improvement should come from Bello.
Pick: UNDER 9 Runs (-120), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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