RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 2, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 32-20 (+6.26 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Twins
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: MIN -144
CLE: Aaron Civale | MIN: Bailey Ober
The heater continued into Monday, and we'll look to stay hot while rolling into the weekend. I'll start out in Minnesota, as the Guardians and Twins play their second game in this series.
The visiting Guardians will send Aaron Civale (1-1, 2.84 ERA) to the mound. While Civale has been great on the surface, he is due for some massive regression here. He's bringing in a 4.45 ERA and 4.39 xFIP. He projects to a 3.73 SIERA against a Twins offense that ranks 14th in wOBA (.320), and 11th in wRC+ (104) against righties while projecting to a whopping .350 wOBA today.
On the other hand, the Twins will send Bailey Ober (3-2, 2.68 ERA) to the mound. Similar to Civale, Ober is due for some regression, just not as much. He brings in a 3.66 xERA and 4.60 xFIP, per Fangraphs. He gets the better matchup of the two starters here, though, projecting to a 3.50 SIERA in this one. While the Guardians got to Pablo Lopez late last night, they still rank 29th in wOBA (.284) and 30th in wRC+ (78) against righties, and project to just a .273 wOBA in this one.
The Twins have the better lineup here, the better pitcher on the mound, and the better bullpen. With all of this considered, we'll grab their money line, which we can get at -144 on FanDuel.
Pick: Twins Money Line (-144), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.44 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Royals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: KC -120
COL: Chase Anderson | KC: Jordan Lyles
We'll head over to Kansas City for our second play of the day as the Rockies head into town.
The Rockies will send Chase Anderson (0-0, 1.31 ERA) to the mound. After starting the season out of the bullpen in Tampa Bay, Anderson was picked up by Colorado. He's been solid across three starts, allowing just three runs in 15.2 innings. He's due for some massive regression according to Fangraphs, with a 3.90 xERA and 5.11 xFIP. Today, he projects to a 5.25 SIERA against a Royals lineup that projects to a .336 wOBA and 39.07% hard contact rate.
On the other side of the field, the Royals will send Jordan Lyles to the mound. Lyles (0-9, 7.30 ERA) does show some signs of positive regression, but it isn't much. His 5.47 xERA and 5.74 xFIP coming into this one are not very optimistic. He projects to a 5.48 SIERA today, and the Rockies surprisingly project to a .354 wOBA and 37.67% hard contact rate against the righty in this one.
I'll back my data here, and grab the over nine runs. We can get that at -118 here on FanDuel, which is what we'll do.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-118), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.18 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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