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Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (10/28/22)

justin verlander fantasy baseball rankings pitchers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Happy Friday RotoBallers, it's World Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!

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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 23, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

Playoffs: 15-5-3 (+6.31 units)

 

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Astros

O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: HOU -166

PHI: Aaron Nola | HOU: Justin Verlander

We managed to go 1-0-1 on Sunday, hitting the Phillies/Padres first-inning under while getting pushed on the Astros F5 money line. Now it's World Series time, as the Phillies and Astros will compete for the title. I'll look at the first-inning under in this matchup, as I'm expecting pitching to dominate game one. 

The visiting Phillies will be sending Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. The Astros haven't lost a game since October 3, when the Phillies beat them in Minute Maid Park to clinch the sixth seed in the NL Playoff. The pitcher on the mound for Philadelphia that night? Aaron Nola. Nola tossed 6.2 scoreless innings against Houston that night and has been solid in the first inning all season. He's allowed a first-inning tally in just two of 15 starts on the road and just four of 31 starts overall. 

Conversely, the Astros will send Justin Verlander (18-4 1.75 ERA) to the mound. After Nola's fantastic start against the Astros on October 3, Justin Verlander twirled himself a solid start in his final regular season start the day after, tossing five hitless innings against the Phils. It should be noted that both teams had already clinched their playoff spots at this point, but it was impressive nonetheless. Verlander has also been great in the first inning, allowing a run in just one of 26 starts overall, and didn't allow a first-inning run at home throughout the entire 2022 regular season. 

FanDuel Sportsbook has the first-inning under at -162, which gives us solid value given the stakes at play here. Could a Kyle Schwarber or Jose Altuve leadoff home run ruin this? Sure. However, my model gives the first inning under a 62.92% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -170. We'll take the value where we can get it here and hope we can stay hot through the World Series. 

Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-162) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Tuesday!



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