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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/22/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday RotoBallers, it's Championship Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, October 22, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 12-5-2 (+4.05 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Yankees
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYY -144
HOU: Cristian Javier | NYY: Ranger Suarez
We managed to go 1-0 on Friday, taking a win on the Phillies F5 run line. We'll look to keep the momentum rolling through the weekend, starting in the Bronx as the ALCS heads to New York. We'll be taking a first-inning under in this one.
The visiting Astros will send Cristian Javier (11-9, 2.54 ERA) to the mound. Javier has had a good season and has been just as good in the first inning. He's allowed a run in six of 24 starts overall, but in just two of 13 starts on the road. He was a perfect 2-0 in the first inning against the Yankees this season. Javier had dominated the Yankees this season, allowing just one earned run across 12 innings and striking out 13.
Conversely, the Yankees will send former Astro Gerrit Cole (13-8, 3.50 ERA) to the mound. Cole has pitched well in the first inning as well, allowing a run in just four of 16 starts at Yankee Stadium and just six of 32 starts overall. Cole made just one start against his former club in 2022, tossing seven innings while allowing just one run in the seventh inning.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving the first inning under at -142, a respectable line given the game total of just 7. Neither of these teams has scored in the first inning in the first two games of this series, and my model gives the under a 62.87% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -169. I'll take the bit of value we're getting here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -112
SD: Mike Clevinger | PHI: Bailey Falter
We'll head back to Philly for game four of this epic series following Philadelphia's pivotal game three victory. It appears both teams may be having somewhat of a bullpen game here, and while the Padres' pen is more rested, I won't be picking a side here.
The visiting Padres will send Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA) to the mound. Clevinger has had an up-and-down season and really hasn't looked like the pitcher he was a few years back in a while. An interesting stat I found was that if you consider hit-by-pitches as walks, Clevinger's K/BB ratio sits at just 2:1 on the season (91 strikeouts, 35 walks, 10 hit batters). While Clevinger pitched well in his lone start against the Phillies, my model projects the Phillies offense to get to Clevinger and the Padres this afternoon, with a .499 wOBA + ISO and 29.68% hard contact rate.
Conversely, the Phillies will send southpaw Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.86 ERA) to the mound. Falter pitched very well to end the regular season, but will be making his first playoff appearance tonight. Falter did not pitch against San Diego this season but did allow three earned runs in just 0.2 innings back in August of 2021. While the Padres have somewhat struggled against lefties this season, my model projects their offense to a .513 wOBA + ISO and 30.08% hard contact rate tonight.
After the Padres were shut out in game one, a Phillies 2-0 win, these teams have combined for 19 runs across their last two games. As I mentioned before, the big arms of the Padres bullpen are rested, so I won't be looking at a full game total here, but rather the F5 over 4.5 runs which FanDuel Sportsbook has at -110. I expect both of these offenses to take care of business tonight as we see a potential barn burner.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 Runs (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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