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Frank Ammirante explains how to pull off a Zero RB draft in FFPC fantasy football leagues for 2020. Identifying running backs with late-round ADP and high upside is the key.
The FFPC is the top choice for high-stakes fantasy football, offering both dynasty and season-long leagues in a variety of formats, including best ball and superflex. If you think you have what it takes to beat the best in fantasy football, I would encourage you to check out FFPC for the best combination of prizes and competition.
Today, I will be using current FFPC ADP to demonstrate effective use of the Zero RB strategy. Zero RB became popular back in 2013 when Shawn Siegele of RotoViz wrote an article outlining the strategy and proceeded to win 1st and 2nd prize in the NFFC Main Event of the same year. The strategy takes a contrarian approach in limiting exposure to running backs in the first six rounds. The focus is to stack your roster with premium wide receivers because they are much safer investments. It is also your goal to draft running backs with high upside, especially in the later rounds.
In this article, I will be drafting a team with the eighth pick in an FFPC 12-team league. This is a PPR, TE premium (1.5 PPR) league that includes a twenty-man roster where you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Since the purpose of this article is to highlight Zero RB, we will not include kickers and defense in this draft. Each pick will include a short blurb on the player’s outlook and why that player fits with my roster construction.
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1.08 - Davante Adams (WR, GB)
| 2017-2019 | |
| Targets per Game | PPR PPG |
| Antonio Brown 11.30 | Antonio Brown 21.67 |
| DeAndre Hopkins 10.58 | DeAndre Hopkins 19.82 |
| Julio Jones 10.11 | Michael Thomas 19.76 |
| Davante Adams 10.07 | Davante Adams 18.65 |
| Michael Thomas 10.02 | Julio Jones 18.13 |
Davante Adams is in line for massive volume on a Packers’ team with limited options in the passing game. We can see here that the best WRs in PPR are the target hogs, making Adams a safe pick to start off the draft. Adams is a good bet for 150+ targets and 1,200+ yards as the alpha WR1 for Aaron Rodgers.
2.17 - George Kittle (TE, SF)
| 2019 TE Production | ||||
| Targets per Game (TE) | Red-Zone Targets (TE) | Receiving Yards | TDS | PPR PPG |
| Zach Ertz 9.0 | Travis Kelce 19 | Travis Kelce 1229 | Mark Andrews 10 | Travis Kelce 15.89 |
| Travis Kelce 8.5 | Tyler Higbee 19 | Darren Waller 1145 | Jared Cook 9 | George Kittle 15.89 |
| George Kittle 7.6 | Austin Hooper 18 | George Kittle 1053 | Darren Fells 7 | Austin Hooper 14.75 |
| Austin Hooper 7.5 | George Kittle 16 | Zach Ertz 916 | Zach Ertz 6 | Zach Ertz 14.37 |
| Darren Waller 7.3 | Zach Ertz 16 | Mark Andrews 852 | Austin Hooper 6 | Mark Andrews 13.81 |
Despite finishing with only five touchdowns in 2019, George Kittle was still tied for first in PPR PPG. This speaks to Kittle’s upside - if he sees positive touchdown regression and finally eclipses his career-high of five touchdowns, we could see a truly massive year. His red-zone usage (fourth in total red-zone targets in 2019) makes this likely.
3.32 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
| WRs with 1400+ YD Seasons before turning 23 |
| Josh Gordon 1646 (2013) |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster 1426 (2018) |
| Randy Moss 1413 (1999) |
| Larry Fitzgerald 1409 (2005) |
| Allen Robinson 1400 (2015) |
JuJu Smith-Schuster is one of five wide receivers since the merger who put up 1400+ yards in a season before turning 23 years old. He’s coming off a down season, but that’s only because Ben Roethlisberger was injured. JuJu looks poised to bounce back in a big way, making him another safe pick for this Zero RB team.
4.41 - A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
| A.J. Brown Targets Splits | |
| Marcus Mariota | Ryan Tannehill |
| 13 TGTS | 61 TGTS |
| 2.17 per game | 6.1 per game |
A.J. Brown had a stellar rookie season despite only receiving 84 targets, which has led to concerns over volume. Brown’s splits with Tannehill at QB show a season pace of 98, which means that 100 targets looks like his floor in 2020. With Brown’s elite playmaking ability, he can put up big yardage on less targets, giving him high upside.
5.56 - Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
| Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt | |
| Chubb | Hunt |
| 8 Games | 8 Games |
| 19.38 touches per game | 10.00 touches per game |
| 13.0 PPR PPG | 12.7 PPR PPG |
| RB20 | RB21 |
Kareem Hunt made an impact in PPR formats immediately upon returning from suspension. Hunt was targeted 44 times in only eight games, putting him on pace for 88 targets, which would have ranked him 7th among RBs. If Chubb were to miss time due to injury, Hunt would become an elite RB1. RB2 floor with RB1 upside is a great pick for this Zero-RB team.
6.65 - Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
| Top Rushing QBs (2018-2019) | ||
| Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
| Jackson: 323 | Jackson: 1901 | Allen: 17 |
| Allen: 198 | Allen: 1141 | Jackson: 12 |
| Watson: 181 | Watson: 964 | Watson: 12 |
| Wilson: 142 | Wilson: 718 | Prescott: 9 |
| Prescott: 127 | Trubisky: 614 | Fitzpatrick: 6 |
Deshaun Watson provides the best combination of rushing and passing production out of any QB in the NFL. He excels in downfield passing and will now have a trio of deep threats in Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Stills. He also has two terrific pass-catching backs in David and Duke Johnson. We could see the Texans really unleash Watson in 2020.
7.80 - Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
| RBs with Tom Brady (2018-2019) | |
| James White | Sony Michel |
| 2019: 13.4 PPR PPG, RB22 | 2019: 9.5 PPR PPG, RB40 |
| 2018: 17.3 PPR PPG, RB10 | 2018: 10.7 PPR PPG, RB36 |
Ronald Jones is battling rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn for usage, but I’ll go with the cheaper back here in the hopes of striking gold. We have seen RBs produce with Tom Brady in the past. Both Jones and Vaughn have high upside in a Buccaneers’ offense that projects to be one of the best in the NFL. Jones should be a serviceable option at worst.
8.89 - Will Fuller V (WR, HOU)
| with Fuller | without Fuller |
| 23 games | 18 games |
| 497-752 (66%) | 387-578 (67%) |
| 6470 PassYDS | 4116 PassYDS |
| 281 YPG | 229 YPG |
| 8.6 Y/A | 7.1 Y/A |
| 52 TD | 23 TD |
| 20 INT | 10 INT |
| 6.9 TD% | 4.0 TD% |
| 2.7 INT% | 1.7 INT% |
| 119 ATT | 126 ATT |
| 646 RushYDS | 755 RushYDS |
| 28 YPG | 42 YPG |
| 5.4 Y/A | 6.0 Y/A |
| 7 TD | 8 TD |
Will Fuller makes Deshaun Watson a better QB, making it likely that Fuller takes over as WR1 with DeAndre Hopkins now in Arizona. Fuller has shown his massive upside in the past - 16 receptions for 217 yards and four touchdowns vs. the Falcons in 2019. If Fuller can finally stay healthy, we’re looking at a career year in 2020.
Stashing RBs Late
9.104 - Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)
Tarik Cohen had a down year in 2019, but let’s not forget that he finished as RB15 in PPR PPG in 2018. Cohen has put up 90+ targets in consecutive seasons, making him a solid option in PPR.
10.113 - Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Zack Moss projects to take over as the Bills’ primary red-zone back. He’s also a capable receiver out of the backfield. If Devin Singletary were to miss time, Moss would become a strong RB2.
11.128 - Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Tony Pollard flashed some upside as a rookie, putting up 562 total yards on only 101 touches. This is another lottery ticket handcuff - if Ezekiel Elliott is injured or suffers complications from his recent COVID diagnosis, Pollard would become fantasy gold.
12.137 - Duke Johnson (RB, HOU)
Duke Johnson finished as RB39 in PPR PPG on only 127 touches last year. New starting RB David Johnson is an injury risk, so we could see more work for Duke this year.
13.152 - Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAX)
Gardner Minshew has a great setup for fantasy success on a Jaguars' team that will be involved in several shootouts this year. Minshew also has sneaky rushing ability - 344 yards in 2019.
14.161 - Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Robby Anderson rejoins his college head coach Matt Rhule in Carolina. Anderson has upside on a stacked Panthers' offense that figures to have to play catch-up often in 2020.
15.176 - Darrynton Evans (RB, TEN)
Evans is already sure to have a role on passing downs for the Titans. This is another high-upside, late-round flyer - should Derrick Henry miss time, Evans would immediately become the bellcow in Tennessee.
16.185 - Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Damien Harris has a clear path to playing time on early downs in a wide-open Pats' backfield that includes a hobbled Sony Michel recovering from knee surgery. He's another nice flyer late in drafts.
17.200 - Antonio Brown (WR, FA)
Antonio Brown is an absolute gift this late in the draft. It seems more likely by the day that we'll see AB back in the NFL this year, so it's a great idea to take a shot here. Brown has such a high upside at a cheap price.
18.209 - David Njoku (TE, CLE)
David Njoku is still only entering his age-24 season. He's one year removed from a 56 REC, 639 YDS, and 4 TD season. Njoku is an athletic tight end with upside, making him a great backup for Kittle.
Final Thoughts
This team is full of upside and deep enough at running back that points can come from a variety of sources.
QB - Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew
RB - Kareem Hunt, Ronald Jones, Tarik Cohen, Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Duke Johnson, Darrynton Evans, Damien Harris
WR - Davante Adams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, A.J. Brown, Will Fuller, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown
TE - George Kittle, David Njoku
QB is set with Watson and Minshew as a high-floor backup. WR is filled with studs like Adams, JuJu, and Brown. AB is a terrific late-round flyer. Kittle has a good shot to finish as the top player at TE, while Njoku is another dart throw with upside. RB is weak at the top, but Hunt will play a major role for the Browns and could be a league-winner if Chubb got hurt. The key here is to load up on lottery tickets at RB. If even one of them pans out, this is a championship team.
For an ideal Zero RB draft, stack up QB, WR, and TE early then load up on lottery tickets at RB.
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