🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Spin - Ezekiel Elliott's Suspension

Feel those shock waves? That's the fallout from the announcement that Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended the first six games of the 2017 season, stemming from allegations of domestic violence that occurred before his rookie season. Fantasy football owners who just burned their third overall pick on Elliott are undoubtedly kicking themselves (and the TV) for drafting this early.

Elliott will appeal, but it's highly likely the suspension will stick. There's obviously no way to replace an average of over 100 yards and one TD per game on 5.1 Y/A. So what happens now?

Let's look at all the ramifications, from where Elliott's ADP now falls to who stands to benefit from this surprising outcome.

Featured Promo: New Novig users get a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig deposit, and 3 free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS and more! CLAIM IT NOW

 

Who Will Carry the Weight in Dallas?

There's little need to explain the significance of this loss to the Cowboys and fantasy owners alike. In his rookie season, Elliott led the league in rushing yards (1,621), rush attempts (322), and yards per game (108.7). He scored 15 times in 15 games and was a true bell-cow in every sense of the word. His lesser production in the receiving department puts him just behind David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell in nearly all fantasy rankings, but it would be rare to find a re-draft league in which Elliott wasn't a top-three pick. Is there any way the Cowboys can replace that type of production with what's currently on the roster? In a word, no.

In 2016, veteran Alfred Morris served as a steady, if uninspiring backup, picking up 243 yards and a pair of TD on a paltry 3.5 yards per carry average. He contributed almost nothing as a pass-catcher either. His advantages: he's a solid pass protector, doesn't fumble (not even one in 2016), and looked good in the Cowboys' preseason opener. Odds are he will be the main back for the season opener, but that may not mean a whole lot. Morris seemed to be on the bubble to even make the roster at one point, but he's looked strong in training camp and is the most reliable runner they have at the moment.

Remember Darren McFadden? Oh he's still around. But he hardly played at all in 2016 before needing elbow surgery, and he's not likely to get much burn in the pre-season as they try to keep him healthy. You may not recall, but he actually managed over 1,000 yards on a healthy 4.6 YPC average starting 10 games for Dallas in 2015. If healthy (and not too rusty), he brings a lot more to the table than Morris as a runner and could eventually supplant Morris as the starter.

Then there's FB/RB hybrid Rod Smith. Smith is a big back from Ohio State that's been with the team for a few years. He's powerful and has impressed in the preseason, but offers little more than the prospect of a bulldozer who can drag guys for a couple yards in a cloud of dust. He was rumored to be the favorite to back up Zeke for a while during camp, but that moment may have passed.

Then finally there's Ronnie Hillman, who the Cowboys brought in to be the third-down back, replacing Lance Dunbar. Hillman is a dark horse, as he did respectably well as an every-down back for a short stint in Denver in 2015 after a rash of injuries gutted the depth chart. He's a longshot to be named the starter at any point, however. He was uninspiring in Minnesota last year before moving on to San Diego and doing even less, averaging 3.2 yards per rush attempt.

Bottom Line: The most likely scenario is that Morris is named the "starter," but only in a scenario where the dreaded committee approach is utilized, with Morris, McFadden, and Hillman splitting carries. Worse yet, until Elliott returns, Jason Garrett could opt to use Smith on the goal line, vulturing scores from whomever gets the bulk of the work. If you own Elliott, try to acquire Morris and/or McFadden ASAP and be ready to pony up the early FAAB. Just don't expect much and get ready to tear your hair out as the three or four understudies split carries until one gets a hot hand. Keep an eye out for current free agents like Rashad Jennings or DeAngelo Williams, who could be brought in to stabilize the position. They may be worth a flier in MFL10s or deep leagues.

 

The Impact on Dak

Maybe you're saying: "Well hey, this is fine by me. I own Dak, not Zeke." One thing the Elliott suspension likely means is that Dak Prescott's value as a passer and goal-line runner have increased for the first six games of the season. He ran for six TD last season and may be apt to try to run some more in himself, or have a few more designed runs or run/pass options called for him near the goal line in Zeke's absence. It's also inevitable that the breakdown of run/pass calls overall will skew to rely on Prescott's arm/legs more. If your league hasn't drafted yet, I wouldn't necessarily vault him way up your draft board to a QB1 because of this, but if you had him even with another QB, this may warrant nudging him up a spot or two.

 

Where to Pick Elliott Now

With nearly half of the fantasy season lost, Elliott is certainly not worth a first-round pick from here on out. Where his value lies certainly depends on the format and your leaguemates' respective opinions of him. With a three-game suspension to start 2016, Le'Veon Bell was still taken in the early second round on average and delivered amazing production the rest of the way, making him one of the best bargains of the draft season. Elliott's suspension is double that, however, so perhaps he's best left to the end of the second or early third round unless you believe that in 10 games he will find a way to outproduce players like Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley. Many believe that Elliott was due for a slight decrease in production anyway, but any way you slice it, he is no longer an elite fantasy option for redraft leagues and can be considered a classic risk-reward pick.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cameron Ward

Believed to Have Grade 3 AC Joint Sprain in Right Shoulder
Colston Loveland

Leads Bears in Targets, Receptions, Receiving Yards in Week 18
Santi Aldama

Available on Sunday Evening
Ja Morant

Downgraded on Sunday Night
Puka Nacua

Finishes the Regular Season as Top-Scoring Receiver
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Fire Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot
David Njoku

Wants to Re-Sign with Browns
Ray Davis

Runs Wild in Final Game of Regular Season
Matthew Stafford

Strengthens MVP Candidacy in Win Over Cardinals
Mitchell Trubisky

Comes Off Bench, Throws for Four Touchdowns
Rhamondre Stevenson

Explodes for Three Touchdowns in Huge Week 18
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Good to Go Against Sacramento
Trae Young

Won't Play on Monday Night
Grayson Allen

Still Out on Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts

Colts to Bring Back Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard for 2026
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Catches Eight Passes in Dominant Outing Sunday
Logan Stanley

to Sit Out One Game With Suspension
TOR

Chris Tanev Could Be Done for Rest of Regular Season
Sean Monahan

Expected to Return Tuesday
Alexander Wennberg

Lands Three-Year Extension
Alec Pierce

Makes Several Big Catches Before Ejection
John Beecher

Handed One-Game Suspension
Devon Toews

Unavailable Sunday
Seth Jones

Out Against Avalanche
Josh Allen

Plays One Snap in Week 18
Myles Garrett

Breaks All-Time Single-Season Sack Record
Jaylen Waddle

Officially Sidelined for Season Finale
De'Von Achane

Officially Inactive Against Patriots in Week 18
Dalton Kincaid

Suiting Up Against Jets in Week 18
Kyren Williams

Suiting Up Against Cardinals on Sunday
Davante Adams

Won't Play Against Cardinals in Week 18
J.J. McCarthy

Questionable to Return in Week 18
Jamal Murray

Will Play on Sunday
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Suiting Up for Regular-Season Finale
Christian Braun

Will Play on Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Will Play on Sunday
Ja Morant

Questionable Against the Lakers
Michael Porter Jr.

Off Injury Report, Set to Face Nuggets
Jalen Suggs

Ruled Out for Sunday, No Timetable for Return
Caris LeVert

Ruled Out Against Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen

Ruled Out on Sunday Afternoon
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday
Jamal Murray

Expected to Play Against Nets
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Listed as Probable for Sunday
Tobias Harris

Out at Least Two Weeks with Hip Sprain
Jalen Duren

to Miss at Least One Week with Ankle Injury
Vince Williams Jr.

Misses Eighth Straight Game
Maxime Raynaud

Cleared to Play Sunday After Knee Scare
Isaiah Hartenstein

Remains Out Versus Suns
Nathan MacKinnon

Takes Over Scoring Lead With Four-Point Effort
Herbert Jones

Misses Seventh Straight Game
Nikita Kucherov

Bags Five Points Against Sharks
Darren Raddysh

Celebrates Hat Trick in Big Win
Jordan Binnington

Logs First Shutout of Season
Auston Matthews

Becomes Maple Leafs' All-Time Goals Leader
Jake McCabe

Exits Loss Early
Tom Wilson

Escapes Serious Injury
Joel Kiviranta

Misses Road Trip
Gavin Brindley

Out Saturday
Casey DeSmith

Granted Leave of Absence
Tanner Jeannot

Remains Absent Saturday
Trevor Moore

Won't Play Saturday Night
Shayne Gostisbehere

Set to Return Saturday
William Nylander

Misses Fourth Straight Game
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Kyle Tucker

Blue Jays "Remain the Favorite" to Sign Kyle Tucker
CFB

Joey Aguilar Undergoes Surgery to Remove Tumor on Friday
CFB

Texas the "Team to Beat" for Transfer Running Back Isaac Brown
CFB

Rocco Becht to Follow Matt Campbell to Penn State?
CFB

Texas Targeting Cam Coleman in Transfer Portal
CFB

Former Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Visiting Kentucky
CFB

Beau Pribula Visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP