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John Johnson breaks down a big-name fantasy football wide receiver faller, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Learn why you should avoid drafting Tyreek Hill in 2025.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill has made a career out of dazzling NFL viewers with his incredible combination of acceleration and long speed. For years, defenses have had little in the way of answers for Hill's generational athleticism.
That was, until last season. The Dolphins offense as a whole was much worse than it was in previous years, but that wasn't all to blame for Hill's lack of production. And for fantasy football, it largely didn't matter -- Hill was a league loser, however you look at it.
Fantasy football managers love to dream of marquee players returning to their former glory after a down season. It is, after all, a very easy way to get a huge value pick in fantasy football drafts. However, I'm here to tell you that you should avoid the temptation, and that Hill won't be worth drafting at his ADP!
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Tyreek Hill Red Flag No. 1: His Age
For starters, Hill is now 31 years old. Athleticism fades with age, and while we've seen many receivers continue to be productive past the age of 30, the top-end elite speed and acceleration are what fade first. The best receivers over the age of 30 tend to win with nuance or strength.
Hill doesn't have a lot of nuance to his game. His route-running is subpar in comparison to many successful WRs his age. He's also not particularly strong for a WR, and struggles in contested catch situations. It doesn't help that he often has problems with drops and sometimes is a body-catcher.
Tyreek Hill has been great all season but he's had a few really BAD drops in crucial moments. Some of these games would have different outcomes if he made the play pic.twitter.com/ZBQ7rC1SNC
— yungkuch (@YungKuch) January 8, 2024
Hill didn't have as many drops in 2024 as he did in 2023, but he was fed easier targets, largely because he wasn't getting the separation he used to get. It was alarming to see how far his statistics dipped last season compared to his 2023 numbers.
Tyreek Hill on vertically breaking routes
2023:
- 46.9% of route tree (4th-most)
- .233 Average Separation (3rd-best)
- 5.30 YPRR (best by a mile)
- 34% TPRR (best)2024:
- 51.8% of route tree (2nd-most)
- .069 Average Separation (33rd)
- 1.64 YPRR (50th)
- 17% TPRR (33rd) pic.twitter.com/1peSLD7xF5— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 29, 2025
Hill took a big step back in 2024 that you can't explain with a wrist injury, which doesn't affect the lower body's ability to generate power and speed, and that you can't blame on Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. Hill's tape showed a few shocking plays in which he failed to outrun players it seems like he'd normally blaze by.
GPS tracking data also shows that Hill didn't exceed 20.52 miles per hour a single time with the ball in his hands. Hill reached over 22 MPH on numerous occasions throughout his career in the past, so this is deeply worrying. It appears the age cliff could finally be here for him.
I think this is my favorite play from Sunday: Zaven Collins winning a foot race from the line of scrimmage against Tyreek Hill.
DC Nick Rallis: “I was wondering if he hit some high speed there.” pic.twitter.com/1HCyShIuAG
— Theo Mackie (@theo_mackie) October 30, 2024
Hill not being able to beat linebacker Zaven Collins emphatically in the above clip is pretty wild. Indeed, the idea that it's McDaniel's fault that Hill had a bad season looks very inaccurate on tape. If Hill were running at his old speed, you have to think he would win the above race.
Jaylen Waddle in 2024 on vertical routes:
-2.31 YPRR
-19% TPRR
-0.132 sep score on corner routes (Tyreek Hill: 0.130)
-0.103 sep score on post routes (Tyreek: 0.098)
- -0.027 sep score on go routes (Tyreek: 0.010)— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
Fellow Dolphins WR and known speedster Jaylen Waddle didn't have as much of a falloff as Hill, as I demonstrated in a thread on X, in terms of separation ability across the two seasons.
Waddle in 2023:
0.077 sep score (ASS) on corner routes (Tyreek: 0.259)
0.175 ASS on post routes (Tyreek: 0.288)
0.302 ASS on go routes (Tyreek: 0.195)
Data via @FantasyPtsData
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
I strongly believe these are age-related downturns in his athletic ability. And that concerns me greatly, because that's something that only gets worse and never gets better with age.
Tyreek Hill Red Flag No. 2: The Dolphins Have Other Options
For fantasy football purposes, it would at least be nice for fantasy managers if the Dolphins didn't have much of a choice and still had to force the ball to Hill as much as possible. That might have been true a few seasons ago, but it's simply not the case anymore.
In 2022, the team's only major weapons were Hill and Waddle, so the offense was fully built around them. Last year, that simply didn't have to be the case. The team had two great non-rookie pass-catchers, running back De'Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith. And both were utilized heavily.
Jonnu Smith is a YAC factory 🏃🏻♂️💨pic.twitter.com/MuwQguNUvJ
— Don Shula Corleone (@DonShulaCorleon) November 12, 2024
Smith and Achane both excelled after the catch, and Miami's offense seemed to adjust to that heavily. So heavily, in fact, that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ended the season with the lowest average depth of target of any QB in the NFL.
Lowest Average Depth of Target by NFL QBs this season (min. 200 pass attempts):
5.6 Tua Tagovailoa
5.9 Patrick Mahomes
6.1 Gardner Minshew
6.2 Baker Mayfield6.7 Aaron Rodgers pic.twitter.com/RUJ7QHyQaZ
— The Sports Numbers (@thesportnumbers) November 29, 2024
The Dolphins mostly stuck with the same plan all year -- throw a bunch of short passes, get the ball out quickly, and hope the team's speed could help them move the ball down the field after the catch rather than before it. And it wasn't all terrible.
But the offensive line's poor play last season, combined with the retirement of elite left tackle Terron Armstead and the departure of tackle Kendall Lamm, makes it hard to believe that things will improve. Tagovailoa isn't about to have a bunch of extra time to throw.
Iwbh, this might be the best throw I’ve ever seen Tua make under pressure. pic.twitter.com/v2BhVRvUZL
— Dante Collinelli (@DanteCollinelli) December 23, 2024
And Hill's struggles in 2024 aren't going to make the team design their game plan around feeding Hill as much as possible to boost his fantasy numbers.
Tyreek Hill Red Flag No. 3: Tagovailoa's Health
When Tagovailoa doesn't play, the Miami Dolphins offense quickly collapses. They don't have a viable backup quarterback, and their offense has essentially no plan when their QB1 gets hurt. We saw this last season, and even though the Dolphins signed QB Zach Wilson, it likely won't change.
The moment Tua Tagovailoa gets hurt, Tyreek Hill becomes a massive liability on your fantasy football rosters. And god forbid if you're unfortunate (or masochistic) enough to watch Dolphins games without Tua playing. pic.twitter.com/ekZDMmfHEf
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
The worst possible thing you can have in a fantasy football league is a player you feel like you have to start that keeps underdelivering due to any number of factors. Hill was a complete dead weight when Tagovailoa isn't on the field. And the quarterback's worrying injury history is a major concern.
Of course, he's currently the league's poster boy for concussions, a title that he absolutely hates. But dating back to his college days, he had a litany of other injuries, and generally has been a very injury-prone player throughout his career. The chances of him missing time in 2025 seem high.
Looking through Tua Tagovailoa's injury history, just in the NFL (not including college) should turn you away from drafting Tyreek Hill. It's looooooooooooooong. And when Tua doesn't play, Hill is awful. pic.twitter.com/DoDeLYBh3Q
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
The Dolphins offense isn't one you should be eager to buy into in general. While Achane and Smith had nice seasons, Achane's ADP doesn't factor in the risk of Tagovailoa's injury-prone nature. Smith is probably the best value buy from this offense, but it depends on his ADP.
Still, Hill wasn't heavily utilized as a YAC threat last season. It makes sense that this was the case. Defenses should still be nervous about Hill's speed in 2025, and will likely play that way, meaning he could end up being a cardio god (not joking) and running deep clear-out routes to try to open up space for the YAC gods.
DeVon Achane Anytime Touchdown “YES”✅✅
(-109)CZRsBANGGGGG! ❤️IF YOU CASHED!
Secured a winning Thanksgiving NFL DAY!💰
pic.twitter.com/GZGPulT03O— Austin (@austinsprops) November 29, 2024
Tyreek Hill Red Flag No. 4: NFL Defenses Play The Deep Pass
NFL defenses have transitioned more and more to selling out to stop the deep passes, forcing opposing teams to consider running the ball more and condensing in their passing plays to shorter depths. It's worked to try to get them to do that so far. NFL offenses are adapting.
Passing touchdowns through two weeks:
2019: 105
2020: 110
2021: 110
2022: 105
2023: 86
2024: 66**Pending MNF
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 16, 2024
Especially in the past two seasons, we've seen a precipitous decline in passing scores. That's unlikely to change, and these numbers are encouraging for defenses, which throw plenty of exotic looks at opposing offenses. We could, and likely are already, seeing a resurgence in many NFL rushing attacks.
Of all the players, this could impact Hill the most.
Conclusion
I guess I could list Hill's 5th red flag as a lack of effort. But that's a hard thing to prove with tape, so I won't try to do it. Still, when considering whether to draft Hill, you should think long and hard about the write-up above, and ask yourself if it's worth it, or if you'd rather take someone who doesn't have so many alarm bells going off.
Like Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (knee), who should escape suspension this season. Or Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins, who's elite when he's on the field, actually has upside even when his QB1 is hurt, and who you can replace with another player while hurt. Just consider it at least.
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