Fantasy Football Tight End Trends For Week 2 - Reading Between The Lines

September 14, 2024

Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 2 of 2024? Rob deciphers the tight end position and discusses tight end breakouts, sleepers, busts.

The tight-end position always gives fantasy managers headaches. Going into the 2024 season, there was hope that this position was the strongest and deepest it had been in years. Then, Week 1 happened. Almost all of the top-tier tight ends flopped, causing many fantasy managers to question, “Is it worth paying up for a tight end anymore?”

The question can be saved until next year. The answer doesn’t do anyone any good right now. Fantasy managers need to determine what they will do with their tight-end position. That’s where this article comes in.

We’ll be analyzing snap counts, routes run, routes from the slot, target share, and target rate to identify tight ends we should avoid and those we should target. The goal is that these advanced metrics will help us get ahead of the curve.

Take A Deep Breath…

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

That certainly wasn’t what fantasy managers hoped for in Week 1, but there’s no reason to panic. Arizona’s defense made it a point of emphasis to take Kincaid away from Josh Allen.

Considering the team’s changes at receiver, the game plan made sense. Luckily for Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir stepped up and played well. That’ll help shift the defense’s attention away from him moving forward.

Dalton Kincaid bombed in the boxscore today, but playing time wasn't an issue based on early data

88% snaps
83% routes
9% targets

Stay calm, y'all. Those are fantastic underlying numbers for a TE (guessing final %s might be tad lower).

Dawson Knox: 55%, 43%, 9%

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 8, 2024

Based on Kincaid’s utilization, there’s nothing to worry about here. Kincaid played 88% of the team’s snaps compared to Dawson Knox’s 58%. Some concerns entering the season were that Knox might eat into Kincaid’s playing time. That didn’t happen in Week 1.

Kincaid finished with an 83% route rate, and over 60% came from the slot. That’s an elite number and verifies that better days are ahead. He only had two targets and one reception for 11 yards, but much of that involved how Arizona attacked Buffalo defensively.

His 9% target share leaves a lot to be desired, but the biggest concern going into the season was Knox, and based on Week 1, that can officially be put to bed. Kincaid should continue to be a set-it-and-forget-it tight end and be viewed as a top-7 tight end with a top-3 upside.

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

If we’re not worrying about Kincaid, we’re not worrying about McBride. He logged an 85% snap share and an elite 89% route participation rate. Almost 56% of his routes were ran out of the slot.

He led the team in targets with nine, posting a 29% target share and a 33% target rate. He finished with just five catches for 30 yards, but the utilization was about as good as anyone could have reasonably expected.

Trey McBride could have had a much bigger Fantasy day in Week 1. You can watch every target ⬇️

Only expecting improvement from this Arizona Cardinals offense moving forward. pic.twitter.com/4hem7ptfb9

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 12, 2024

Currently, McBride should be viewed as a surefire top-3 tight end with an excellent shot at finishing in the top spot. There are very few, if any, tight ends who will routinely post a 90% route share and a 29% target share. Both numbers can drop by five percentage points, and they both might still lead the tight-end position. Keep starting him without question.

Buy Low

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Some fantasy managers might be panicked about Andrews’ dud in Week 1, especially with how last season ended and Isaiah Likely’s big week. If the manager who rosters Andrews in your league feels apprehensive about his prospects for the rest of the season, make an offer.

Andrews had a 75% route share compared to 61% for Likely. That would have ranked 23rd last year among tight ends. It just so happened that Kansas City made a point to stop Andrews, and it has done so in the past. Look at the following tweets that will illustrate this point entirely.

Mark Andrews in 6 career games vs KC

- 0/0 (0 fantasy points)
- 3/15 (4.5 fantasy points)
- 3/22 (5.2 fantasy points)
- 5/57 (10.7 fantasy points)
- 2/15 (3.5 fantasy points)
- 2/14 (3.4 fantasy points)

I'm gonna go out on a limb & call this a matchup issue...

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) September 9, 2024

After seeing this thread from Andy, decided to look at the data.

Mark Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes in this game than any of his other games from 2021-2023. https://t.co/jsLWMcXu7J

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 6, 2024

Andrews also ran 67% of his routes out of the slot position, whereas Likely’s slot rat was only 41%. Likely can be viewed as a mid-TE2 with some upside, but his 61% route participation rate still leaves much to be desired. Kansas City wanted to take Andrews away and force Lamar Jackson to beat it elsewhere.

To his credit, he locked in on Likely, and he came through. Likely will be involved in this offense this season, but there’s no reason to panic about Andrews. Andrews bested Likely in snap share (74% to 66%), route participation rate (75% to 61%), and slot rate (67% to 41%).

Better days are ahead for Andrews. If you can leverage Likely’s big week with Andrews’ abysmal box-score stat line and acquire Andrews, I recommend doing so.

Sound the Alarms

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Abandon ship. That could not have gone worse for Kmet. If you were to have asked a Kmet fantasy manager before the game on Sunday what the worst-case scenario was outside of an injury, it all came true.

Gerald Everett out-snapped Kmet (34 to 27) and almost had Kmet doubled up in routes run! Everett had 21 to Kmet’s 12. Kmet’s route participation rate was at 36%! Ladies and gentlemen, that is baaaaaaaaad! That is run for the hills bad.

Kmet is Chicago’s TE2 right now, and while the playing time was similar, Everett appears to be the team’s preferred pass-catching tight end. If that wasn’t bad enough, Caleb Williams laid an absolute stinker, which doesn’t exactly have fantasy managers feeling warm about the Bears offense moving forward. He needs to be dropped.

So, You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance...

Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams

It feels like we’ve done this song and dance with Tyler Higbee too many times to count in the past. Historically, Sean McVay’s offenses have been hyper-focused on the receiver group. Even with the Puka Nacua injury, I don’t expect that to change substantially. However, his utilization in Week 1 and Nacua’s IR stint put Parkinson firmly on the streaming radar.

Parkinson played 88% of the snaps and ran a route on 82% of the team’s dropbacks. Those are very good numbers. He finished with five targets, four receptions, and 47 yards. The Rams threw the ball 49 times, which gave him just a 10% target share, which isn’t great, but the playing time and opportunity sure are.

No tight end ran more routes in Week 1 than the Rams Colby Parkinson (45).

Also played 87.8% of the snaps. Super underrated TE add if you miss out on Isaiah Likely.

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) September 10, 2024

He’s also a big-bodied target who could garner a few extra end-zone looks with Nacua out on what should continue to be a good offense. However, he took just 13% of his snaps from the slot position. Parkinson should be viewed as a mid-TE2 moving forward.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

There were some concerns with Freiermuth after the preseason utilization trends. Those concerns were made worse considering how offensive coordinator Arthur Smith utilized Kyle Pitts last year in Atlanta. However, while Freiermuth’s utilization wasn’t perfect, it was good.

He played on just under 74% of the snaps. The next closest tight end, Darnell Washington, was at 54%. Freiermuth also finished with a solid route participation rate of 75% and posted a 17% target share. He finished with four receptions, four targets, and 27 yards.

Highest % of Snaps Run from a WR Spot, Week 1
(min 50% route part.)

🔸Pat Freiermuth - 84%
🔸Hayden Hurst - 83%
🔸Travis Kelce - 80%
🔸Mark Andrews - 78%
🔸Kyle Pitts - 76%
🔸Zach Ertz - 72%
🔸Dalton Kincaid - 69%
🔸Cade Otton - 69%
🔸Gerald Everett - 67%
🔸Brock Bowers - 66%

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 9, 2024

He finished as a top-12 tight end in 2022 with Kenny Pickett at quarterback before an injury-riddled 2023 was lost. There’s potential here because Freiermuth is in a good spot to be Pittsburgh’s No. 2 target earner behind George Pickens.

Now, Here’s a Guy to Keep Your Eye On…

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Many expected Luke Musgrave to be Green Bay’s No. 1 tight end, but that was not the case last Friday night. Kraft played 64 snaps to Musgrave’s 17. Not surprisingly, Kraft had a commanding lead in routes run (30 to eight). This wasn’t even a tight-end committee. This wasn’t a 1A and 1B type of situation. Kraft was the full-time starter, and Musgrave was a backup.

This is even more surprising because Kraft missed part of training camp with a torn pectoral and came into Week 1 as questionable with a back injury. He still massively outplayed Musgrave. They both finished with just two targets, and now Jordan Love could miss a few weeks with a sprained MCL, but Kraft was trending in the right direction after Week 1.

Concerning Musgrave, he can be safely dropped. There’s no reason to roster a tight end with a 22% route participation rate. Kraft could struggle to gain regular traction in one of the league’s deepest receiver rooms, and that’ll likely be why he doesn’t make good on his strong utilization.

Competing for targets with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and the running backs is a big ask. Right now, he can be left on waivers. However, if one of the receivers were to get hurt, he could become interesting.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

Going into the year, this looked like it might be a tight-end committee, but Dulcich came out solidly ahead after Week 1. He played 46 snaps to Adam Trautman’s 24. He also ran 33 routes on 51 dropbacks. That 71% is a strong number, and it could grow considering his competition at tight end.

He finished with just two targets, which is the downside. However, Dulcich was able to post strong numbers in 2022 as a rookie. He hardly played at all last season due to a season-long hamstring injury. He checks many boxes we look for at tight ends for fantasy football.

Tight ends who ran more than 30 routes in Week 1:

Colby Parkinson 42
Mark Andrews 38
Theo Johnson 37
Isaiah Likely 35
Trey McBride 34
Greg Dulcich 33
Brock Bowers 31

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 11, 2024

He had strong collegiate production, has a strong athletic profile, and received good draft capital. He produced right away as a rookie. He’s running routes at a good clip and is competing for targets with just Josh Reynolds and 26-year-old rookie Devaughn Vele.

If Dulcich can earn more targets, Denver desperately needs a dependable pass-catcher behind Courtland Sutton. Based on who the Broncos currently employ, Dulcich might be the best bet.

Theo Johnson, New York Giants

He’s a rookie and catching passes from Daniel Jones, so don’t get too excited. However, he did have a 78% route participation rate and played 61 of the team’s 70 snaps. No other tight end played more than 20. Johnson is the undisputed starter.

Johnson finished with four targets and an 11% target share. That’s not a significant number, but considering it was his first NFL game, it’s not terrible. Johnson has the role and utilization that we want to see. The question is if the production will follow.

He will be behind Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson for targets, which puts him third on the team’s target hierarchy at best. Can Daniel Jones support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers? He cannot. Could Johnson pop in a few weeks as a streamer? It’s possible, especially with his athleticism. He’s worth watching, but you don’t have to do anything right now.

Is This Happening Already?!

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Arthur Smith is officially gone. Pitts played on almost all the snaps and had a 100% route participation rate. Thank goodness! That, right there, was more than half the battle. For the past two seasons, Pitts had been held back by poor utilization and playing time. That doesn’t seem like it’ll be a problem anymore.

As far as deployment goes, here are the tight ends that were top 10 in both route participation and % of snaps run from a WR spot in Week 1:

🔸Kyle Pitts
🔸Travis Kelce
🔸Dalton Kincaid
🔸Zach Ertz
🔸Hayden Hurst
🔸Cade Otton

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 12, 2024

He finished with just three targets but did happen to find the end zone in Week 1. Kirk Cousins looked shaky in his first game, which could become a concern as the season progresses. Something didn’t look right with Cousins. However, can he be worse than Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder?

That would be hard to believe, and if he is, the team could always move to Michael Penix Jr. Pitts is in an excellent situation to succeed for the first time since his rookie season. The utilization was everything we could have hoped for in Week 1. Now, we need Pitts to do the rest.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

There were some concerns that a questionable offense, poor quarterback play, and target hog Davante Adams could make Bowers’ rookie season a bit hit or miss. Bowers put that notion to bed pretty early. He already looks like a must-start fantasy tight end.

He had a 77% route share and finished with seven targets, which led the team. With Adams on the roster, fantasy managers shouldn’t continue to expect that, but there’s a good chance he’s going to finish as Las Vegas’s No. 2 target earner.

As a rookie in his very first game, Brock Bowers:

🔸Earned a 21.2% target share
🔸Ran 77.5% of the routes
🔸Ran 65.5% of them from a WR spot
🔸Blocked on zero pass plays
🔸Had the 2nd most targets of any TE
🔸Had the 2nd most yards of any TE

You can absolutely get excited pic.twitter.com/yLaVMA99M6

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 11, 2024

He had six catches for 58 yards and didn’t display his elite skill set after the catch. Once he gets into open space or the offense starts utilizing him on screens and end-arounds, we could see Bowers’ fantasy value increase even more.

We knew he was an exceptional prospect, but in Week 1, he showed he could be a special player, too. Fantasy managers can start him with confidence.

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