Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation For Week 4

September 28, 2023

Robert deciphers the fantasy football tight end landscape to identify breakouts and to help avoid players who are fool's gold for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. Taking a deep dive into the advanced statistics can help get out in front of trends.

When the 2023 season started, it felt like the tight end position was deeper than ever. You had the studs, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Then you had the really good ones, just a tier below, with George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, and Darren Waller. Next came the young ascending players such as Evan Engram, Pat Freiermuth, David Njoku, and Kyle Pitts. We haven’t even mentioned the rookie class, which was widely believed to be the best tight end class in years.

Despite all of those names, the tight end position has settled into what the tight end position has basically always been. There’s Kelce, a tier drop, and then Andrews, and then everyone else. The everyone else category includes players in the bad to slightly not-as-bad category. For all the optimism to start the season, three weeks in, it’s the same as it’s always been.

Kelce is a fantasy football god and because of that, his name shouldn’t even be spoken amongst the rest of the group. This article is aimed at helping readers wade through the filth of the tight end position to determine which players they should be targeting.

Weeks 1-3 Statistical Review

With receivers we can often just look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be good and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with such small numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers. Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which not only includes raw targets and target share but also snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on the first three weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Waller, Freiermuth, and Gesicki were all limited in Week 1. Waller and Freiermuth have since operated as 80/80 players, meaning that their snap share and route participation rates have both been above 80% in Weeks 2 and 3. Waller should be viewed as a top-five option moving forward. The results have been somewhat disappointing, but try to be reasonable. Context matters. They’ve played the Cowboys, arguably the best defense in the league in a torrential downpour and they played the 49ers, also arguably the best defense in the league on the road. I think he deserves a pass but Gesicki’s numbers are what they are.

Thomas was limited in Week 2 with a concussion and missed the majority of that contest. He was held out of Week 3, as well. From his Week 1 utilization, he operated as a 75/75 player, with a snap share and route participation above 75%. He was a big part of the offense in Week 1 and should be viewed as a potential top-12 option, but at the very least, a high-end TE2 with upside.

Other notes, the Dolphins made a switch at tight end in Week 3. Julian Hill was the primary tight end playing 76% of the snaps and running a route on 72% of the team’s dropbacks. In Weeks 1 and 2, Smythe had been playing on 95% of the team’s snaps. Smythe can officially be dropped. Hill isn’t a streamer or anything yet. We need more data than just one week to confirm this switch is official, but he’s someone to keep an eye on due to the explosiveness of the Miami offense and the sheer number of snaps and routes Smythe received the first two weeks of the season.

We’re Maybe Moving In the Right Direction…?

Jake Ferguson might possibly be the biggest enigma at the tight end position. On one hand, he’s leading the position with nine red zone targets. He has the eighth-most targets (18) and the eighth-highest target share (18.7%). His target per route run rate (TPRR) is at 29%, which is top in the league. However, he’s just 15th in receptions (10) and 28th in yards (70). The bigger problem outside of his poor efficiency is his snap share and route participation rate.

Through three weeks his snap share has been 72%, 60%, and 69%. That’s certainly much lower than we’d like and his route participation rates have been even worse. He’s finished with rates of 54%, 49%, and 62%. A surprise showing from the Cardinals forced the Cowboys to throw more than expected and Ferguson saw his utilization in the passing game increase. 62%, however, is still alarmingly low.

On one hand, fantasy managers can point to their target earning potential (TPRR), target share, red zone utilization, and the raw number of targets to say that better days are on the horizon. But on the other hand, fantasy managers could also argue that eventually, his elite TPRR will fall off. Not only that but why should we expect his snap share and route participation rate to increase when he’s done so little with his opportunities?

Perception is everything and Ferguson is an early-season conundrum for fantasy managers. Which side do you fall on? Personally, I’m selling Ferguson. The route participation rate and the lack of efficiency are too large to ignore. Fantasy managers should tread cautiously.

Who Said Rookies Can’t Produce?

LaPorta is currently averaging 11.2 half-PPR PPG. This is third among all tight ends. He currently has the second-most targets, second-most receptions, and the most yards. LaPorta deserves to be mentioned alongside Mark Andrews and Hockenson right now. That may seem crazy just three games in, but the production is there and it aligns with his utilization.

Here's where Sam LaPorta ranks amongst all qualified TEs this year:

-1st in yards per route run
-3rd in target share
-4th in targets per route run

Dude is a bonafide locked in TE1 rest of season

— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) September 26, 2023

He has a 21.6% target share, which is higher than both Andrews and Hockenson. He’s running a route on 79% of his team’s dropbacks. Anything over 80% is elite. He checks all the boxes. He is a set-it-and-forget tight end and should be valued as a top-five option at the position for the rest of the season. How high has he climbed? I would take LaPorta over Waller, Goedert, Kittle, and Evan Engram for the rest of the season.

Keep Sending Him Up!

Has anyone ever watched Top Gun? They’re both awesome movies, but I'm talking about the first one here. There’s a scene after Goose dies where Maverick just won’t engage in combat, he’s hesitant. Viper says to just keep sending him up. This is the advice I have for Luke Musgrave. Just keep sending him up. He is going to hit, I promise you and it very well may be this Thursday.

The Lions have allowed the second-most half-PPR points to opposing tight ends this year. While we’d prefer to see more passing from the Packers, Musgrave’s utilization is elite. His snap share and route participation rate are both at 83%. With opportunities like that combined with Musgrave’s elite athleticism, and the good play from quarterback Jordan Love, Musgrave’s big game is only a matter of time.

Week 3 TE Fantasy Usage (No MNF)

1 Cole Turner (15.2)
2 T.J. Hockenson (14.3)
3 Travis Kelce (13.8)
4 Sam LaPorta (12.1)
5 Kyle Pitts (12.0)
6 George Kittle (11.0)
7 Luke Musgrave (10.7)
8 Jonnu Smith (9.2)
9 Jake Ferguson (8.8)
10 Gerald Everett (8.4)

We're so close with Luke pic.twitter.com/GQPGTpPKrs

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 25, 2023

He has 49 receiving yards in two of three games and has big-play potential that so few tight ends have. He’s coming off a Week 3 contest where he finished with eight targets, six receptions, and 49 yards. On the season, he has 96 air yards, which is the fourth-highest among tight ends and he has an air-yard share of 19.4%, which ranks fifth. He also has the highest average depth of target at 13.7. He’s averaging 11.3 yards per reception, which is third. Everything about his utilization absolutely screams the breakout game is coming. With a very appealing matchup on tap, I’m putting my money on it happening in Week 4.

Cruel and Unusual Punishment

Speaking of movies again… remember in Dumb and Dumber when Harry buys that scooter and Lloyd says, “Just when I thought you couldn’t get any dumber…”? Well, fantasy managers kind of thought the same thing about the quarterback play in Atlanta. Just like Lloyd thought Harry couldn’t get any dumber, we all thought the quarterback play couldn’t get worse. Well, Harry redeemed himself. Arthur Smith, he did not.

Somehow, I have no idea how, but somehow the quarterback play has actually gotten worse for Pitts than it was last year with Marcus Mariota. Pitts has an absolutely elite 89% route participation rate. He’s got a healthy 18.7% target share, which ranks ninth. His 17 targets are also the ninth-most. He’s fourth in expected fantasy points per game.

Tight End Leaders by XFP/G [2022-2023]

1. Travis Kelce (16.4)
2. TJ Hockenson (13.7)
3. Mark Andrews (13.0)
4. Kyle Pitts (12.5)

Tight End Leaders by Catchable XFP/G [2022-2023]

1. Travis Kelce (14.5)
2. TJ Hockenson (10.8)
3. Mark Andrews (10.4)
.
18. Cade Otton (5.9)
.
22.…

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 27, 2023

However, only 50% of his targets have been deemed catchable. Last year that number was at 63%, so we haven’t just gotten a little bit worse. It’s gotten significantly worse. Remember him being fourth in expected fantasy points per game? Well, if we look at expected fantasy points per game solely off of catchable targets, he drops all the way down to 25th. Oofta!

What do fantasy managers do with that? He still ranks 10th in receiving yards at the position, so fantasy managers are likely best continuing to start him. His utilization and opportunity are very, very good. That isn’t the problem. The problem is Ridder has been bad. That’s an understatement. The truth is, even with Pitts’ utilization metrics, fantasy managers could live with bad, but Ridder has been atrocious. Here’s to Taylor Heinicke.

Buy Low Targets?

If you’re struggling at the tight end position, there are two players who look to be good buy low targets. The first being David Njoku and the second being Dalton Kincaid. Both guys may have you feeling some sort of way, but guys aren’t buy lows if things are going well and for both players, they haven’t played up to expectations.

For Njoku, his route participation rate is at 80%. This is higher than LaPorta. He’s also run 97 total routes, which is more than LaPorta and Kittle. He’s struggled through three weeks, but Week 1 was played in very sloppy conditions, with Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing offense also struggling. His other two opponents have been the Steelers and Titans. The Steelers are 29th in points allowed to tight ends while the Titans are 22nd. When you consider the weather in Week 1, the tough matchups in Weeks 2 and 3, and the strong route participation rates, Njoku looks like a strong buy-low candidate.

The other buy-low candidate is Kincaid. His numbers aren’t quite as strong across the board. His snap share is at just 64% and his route participation is at 67%. Teammate, Dawson Knox has outscored him. However, fantasy managers should be pleased with how he’s been used early. Sure, his route participation isn’t as high as Musgrave or LaPorta, but 67% for a rookie tight end right off the bat is really good and we should expect it to grow.

Not only that, but because of the volume in Buffalo, the number of routes Kincaid has run (83), isn’t so different than LaPorta (85) and Musgrave (90). He’s also running 80% of his routes from either the slot or out wide, which means he’s basically a wide receiver. Right now, his average depth of target is just 4.2 yards, which is holding him back. The hope is that based on his role as a pseudo-receiver, this will increase as he continues to get more playing time, thus raising his ceiling.

It’s still basically the Stefon Diggs show in Buffalo, which means they’re still looking for someone to be their primary No. 2 target. Kincaid was drafted to give their offense another weapon and a different dimension. The role they have him playing says they trust him to do that. Now it’s just a waiting game and sometimes with rookies, we need to wait a bit. He could be in line for a big second half.

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