Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 12

Rob looks for tight end rankings sleepers for fantasy football Week 12 (2023). He identifies tight end breakouts and avoids while diving into advanced statistics.

As the quarterback and running back positions have been ravaged by injuries, the tight end position has largely skated by. Outside of Darren Waller's hamstring injury, the position had been extremely healthy this year. All of that came crashing down this past weekend when star tight end Mark Andrews was brought down from behind in their Thursday night game against the Bengals. He needed to be helped off the field and immediate reports were brutal. At first, it seemed as though his season was over and for fantasy managers, it is. If Andrews is able to return this year, it would require the Ravens to make a deep push into the playoffs, which means he's cuttable for fantasy managers and he will need an immediate replacement for the remainder of the year.

We'll touch on his replacement, Isaiah Likely, and what fantasy managers should expect from him. Two other options that are widely available are Greg Dulcich and Pat Freiermuth. They're not the sexiest of names, but they both are talented players who could offer some weekly upside if they're able to get healthy. Short of those two, fantasy managers looking to replace Andrews may have to opt for streaming the position on a weekly basis.

In this article, we'll be addressing some changing trends at the tight end position. We'll also be looking at some of the most important stats for fantasy managers to look at when valuing tight ends. This article will also include my weekly rankings and transactions fantasy managers should be looking to make with tight ends. This will include players to add and cut. If you have any tight end related questions, don't hesitate to message me on X @RobFFSlayer. Let's get to Week 12's Edition of Tight End Preparation.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Weeks 1-11 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end position, that’s not quite as effective because with smaller numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which includes raw targets, target share, snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on nine weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Formal Apology Letter to George Kittle

Dear George Kittle, this is my formal and official apology letter to you and all fantasy managers who read my Week 8 section entitled, “The End of George Kittle." Needless to say, my face is red. I can officially say I now know what Davante Adams must feel like this season after actually requesting to be traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Mistakes were made. I thoroughly screwed up.

You see, Mr. Kittle, I was concerned with your target per-game average and the general lack of production when all of your teammates – Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk – were on the field with you. I won’t rattle off my reasoning and my math here, as it’s clearly been proven to be incredibly wrong, but if you wish to read it, you can find the link above. Just know that, at the time, I thought I was making the correct decision and really, isn’t that all any of us can strive to do?

While my concerns may have been justified, - I won’t say that they weren’t, you cannot make me - it’s now clear to me that I missed one very important thing, that you’re just really stinkin’ good at football. This isn’t something that is new. We’ve known this for years, but I lost sight of it.

Even last year, despite the addition of CMC, you still averaged 1.85 yards per route run, which ranked eighth among all tight ends. Your yards per target average was 8.9 (sixth-best), your yards per reception was 12.8, (fifth-best) and your yards per team pass attempt was 1.66 (fourth-best). You also had 354 yards after the catch (YAC), which was the sixth-highest.

All of those advanced metrics have actually increased this season, a testament to your elite skill level. This year you have the third-highest yards per route run average at 2.39 and the highest yard per target (11.6), yard per reception (15.1), and yards per team pass attempt average (2.33). You also haven’t slowed down in the slightest in terms of your ability to churn out yards after the catch. You currently have the sixth-most YAC with 236.

Sure, I could easily point to your expected fantasy points per game average which is at 10.8, and your full-PPR PPG average, which is at 13.8, and argue regression is coming. Maybe so, but isn’t that what elite players, like yourself do? Exceed expectations? I think so. Am I a little concerned that you rank just 13th in targets per game? Yeah, maybe a little, but I won’t be doubting you anytime soon. You’ll be ranked as a top-six tight end for the rest of the season.

Isaiah Likely is a Must-Add and Top-12 TE ROS

Likely is going to be the waiver wire darling this week and if you're struggling or streaming at tight end, fantasy managers should be incredibly aggressive in trying to land him. Starter Mark Andrews is done for the season, which moves Likely into the starting role on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

Following Andrews' exit, Likely took over as the full-time starter, although fantasy production didn't immediately follow. He finished with two targets and zero receptions, however, that's not the full picture. The tweet below is an excellent thread looking at Likely's Week 11 performance following Andrews' injury and gives fantasy managers a lot more context than his final stat line provides.

It was not a good game for Isaiah Likely by any means but the 0 catches on 2 targets in the box score is a little misleading.

Let's take a quick look ⬇️

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 18, 2023

From 2022-2023, Andrews has missed three regular season games. In those three contests, Likley has been the starting tight end. He's averaged 6.3 targets, 3.3 receptions, 43.6 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game. He averaged 8.0 half-PPR PPG. That would rank as the TE10 this season, tied with Dallas Goedert. His per-game averages in those three games would result in 108 targets, 57 receptions, 742 yards, and six touchdowns over 17 games. He should be considered a weekly starter moving forward and will often find himself ranked between TE8-14 for the rest of the season.

Donald Parham Jr. is... Interesting

Let me preface this section by saying that if Gerald Everett is healthy and active this upcoming weekend, Parham is most definitely not interesting. In Week 10, when Everett and Parham were both active, Parham played 32 snaps and Everett played 24 of the team’s 72. Everett was the primary tight end prior to his exit due to injury. He played on 24 of the team’s first 35 snaps. However, he didn’t catch either of his two targets during that stretch. Parham finished Week 10 with 15 routes on 41 dropbacks and just two targets. In games where Everett has been active, Parham has never played more than 55% of the snaps and has just one game where he’s run a route on more than 40% of the dropbacks. Needless to say, if Everett is active, Parham is completely avoidable.

However, his Week 11 utilization was interesting. He surpassed the 70% marker for snaps and routes run. More importantly, was the success that came with it. Parham finished second in every receiving category for the Chargers behind Keenan Allen. He had six targets, four receptions, and 57 yards. Quentin Johnston has been a massive disappointment, which creates plenty of opportunity for Parham, so long as Everett is out.

If Everett is out again, fantasy managers still need to tread somewhat cautiously. Below is Parham’s Week 8 utilization when Everett was inactive as well. If Everett is inactive again, as long as Parham gets the opportunity he saw in Week 11, he could become a worthwhile dart throw in deep leagues. If he receives the utilization he saw in Week 8, fantasy managers are likely to be in trouble. The Chargers don't have a good matchup in Week 12, which makes this bet even more risky. Baltimore has been one of the stringiest defenses to opposing tight ends this season. However, Parham has flashed at times this year and the Chargers are desperate for pass-catchers. The Ravens will likely have no problem moving and scoring on the Chargers' defense, which means Justin Herbert and company will be forced to air the ball out.

The Chargers don't have a good matchup in Week 12, which makes this bet even more risky. Baltimore has been one of the stingiest defenses to opposing tight ends this season. However, Parham has flashed at times this year and the Chargers are desperate for pass-catchers. The Ravens will likely have no problem moving and scoring on the Chargers' defense, which means Justin Herbert and company will be forced to air the ball out.

Remember the Fallen Titan

Okonkwo carried so much hype with him coming into the 2023 NFL season. He had a 33.3% target per route run rate and a 9.8 yard per target average, both second-highest among tight ends. He also finished first in both, yards per route run (3.26) and yards per reception (14.1). However, he had run only 138 routes all season, which amounts to just 8.1 per game. Needless to say, his 2022 sample was incredibly small.

With the signing of DeAndre Hopkins and the expectation that second-year receiver Treylon Burks would take a step forward, there were some reasons to be pessimistic. However, Burks has virtually been a non-factor all season. That hasn’t helped Okonkwo break out in year two. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggled early and was eventually injured. With rookie QB Will Levis taking over there was a slight glimmer of hope, but the last two weeks have decimated that.

From Weeks 1-9, Okonkwo had played on 70% of the team’s snaps and ran a route on 74% of the team’s dropbacks. Both of those numbers have dropped to 49% in the past two weeks. In Weeks 1-9, Okonkwo averaged 4.4 targets, 3.0 receptions, and 21.6 yards per game. Those numbers have fallen to 4.0 targets, 2.0 receptions, and 16.5 yards per game. The decline in snaps played and routes run are absolute killers. No tight end can be even close to fantasy-relevant with those numbers.

As you can see from the table above, the Titans implemented a full-blown tight end committee in Week 11. Rookie, Josh Whyle saw the biggest increase and with Okonkwo’s ineffectiveness, his role has shrunk in recent weeks. Okonkwo should be far away from rosters even in the deepest of leagues or leagues where two tight end starters are a requirement.

Youth Movement in Gotham

Prior to their Week 11 contest, the Jets' coaching staff talked about getting some of their younger guys more involved. This meant that Jeremy Ruckert played more than he had all season. This largely came at the expense of C.J. Uzomah. This switch didn’t greatly impact Tyler Conklin, but it’s fair to wonder if it could if the losses continue to pile up. Also, the losses will continue to pile up.

As you look at the table above, you can see that Conklin remained the primary tight end and pass-catching option at the position. However, his 63% route participation was the lowest since Week 4. Of the previous nine games, Conklin has just two games below a 65% route participation. The already mentioned contest in Week 4 and the other was back in Week 3.

With the Jets’ officially benching Zach Wilson, they seem to have accepted their fate. For those of you who may be thinking, it can’t get worse than Wilson. I assure you, it can. Tim Boyle has a 50.9 quarterback rating. Wilson’s is 71.9. Wilson averages 6.3 yards per attempt and Boyle averages 5.1 yards. Boyle’s touchdown to interception ratio is 1.0:3.0. Wilson’s is 1.0:1.2. Conklin was barely usable before, but now with the quarterback change and his potentially declining role, fantasy managers can cut him, even in the deepest of leagues.

Weekly Tight End Transactions

• Be Aggressive in Acquiring Isaiah Likely
• Add Pat Freiermuth - Don't fret about his performance in Week 11. He was limited coming off an IR stint and returned to face the Browns, who have allowed the fewest points per game to opposing tight ends. If you lost Andrews and weren't able to land Likely, Freiermuth makes for a great consolation prize. I discussed why in last week's edition, which you can find in the link, here. The firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada only makes Freiermuth more appealing.
• Stash Greg Dulcich - He's eligible to come off of IR this week, although it sounds like he might be a week or two away from returning. For a more in-depth look as to why fantasy managers should be stashing him, check out my last week's article, here.
• Drop Chioziem Okonkwo
• Drop Tyler Conklin

Week 12 Tight End Rankings

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