High-Powered Offenses: Fantasy Football Players to Target in Week 5 Lineups Include Tee Higgins, Justice Hill, Tucker Kraft, Sam Darnold, Chase Brown, more

October 3, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 5 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to Week 5 of the High-Powered Offenses column. Week 4 scoring saw a significant increase overall with a handful of shootouts. Eight teams scored more than 30 points, including two over 40. There were still several disappointments for fantasy, but it improved from the previous week. We'll keep adjusting our expectations of teams based on their performances and new injuries. Remember, this article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal will be not to repeat offenses on a week-to-week basis, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that bye weeks have begun with the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennesee Titans off in Week 5, reducing the amount of offenses we can highlight.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. 

Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 5. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offenses Recap

• Detroit Lions - 42 points scored (tied for 1st)
• Washington Commanders - 42 points scored (tied for 1st)
• Seattle Seahawks - 29 points scored (tied for 9th)
• Houston Texans - 24 points scored (tied for 12th)
• Dallas Cowboys - 20 points scored (tied for 17th)

Week 4 was by far the best for the offenses to target. We nailed the top two scoring teams with three inside the top 10 and all five inside the top 17. There were four defensive or special teams touchdowns, but none from these five teams, making their finishes even more impressive. We'll aim to repeat this success in Week 5.

Week 5 Offenses to Target

• Baltimore Ravens
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Green Bay Packers
• Minnesota Vikings
• Chicago Bears

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because they do not need to travel and have the comfort of their normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of their stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns. 

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is that teams who score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place them in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is that teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Note: Because touchdowns are a whole number, there won't be any teams in the "average" range yet. With two games played, a team would have to have 4.4 to 4.8 total touchdowns on the season, which isn't possible. This category should be populated next week, assuming a team has seven total touchdowns.

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

We've hit the coveted four-week mark of data, where things become more reliable and outliers have less impact. We now have multiple samples for all 11 categories, which is great news.

Home teams held their own again in Week 4, keeping the overall trend alive by just over a point. That was bolstered by the Lions, Ravens, and 49ers, who all cleared 30 points. Similarly, several road teams performed well, including the Bengals, Vikings, Titans, and Commanders. The quality of the offense still matters more, but the advantage is becoming more distinct.

The gap between the "above average" and "below average" categories within the offensive touchdowns and yards per game metrics is about 10 points. These two metrics remain the strongest indicators. The one difference is that the "average" category in offensive yards per game is only about three points per game lower compared to over nine points in the touchdowns metric.

This means that offenses landing in the average range in offensive yards per game are still worth targeting while those in the same range in offensive yards may not be. It's the first time there's been a clear-cut takeaway.

The pace of play metric is still sorting itself out, and as we discussed last week, might need to be redefined. Only five teams have cleared the 65.0 plays per game mark with 11 between 61.0 and 65.0, and 16 below that. We'll give it one more week, but it seems inevitable that it will need to change to match the slower pace from the increased rushing volume.

Week 5 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Baltimore Ravens

There's been a lot of criticism of Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken this season, but it's safe to say they hit their stride on Sunday in prime time. Baltimore throttled Buffalo in Week 4, firing on all cylinders. It dominated the undefeated Bills and proved why it entered 2024 as a Super Bowl contender.

Despite their 2-2 record, the Ravens rank fifth in points per game with 26.5. They're also sixth in offensive touchdowns per game with 3.0 and first in offensive yards with 429.5 per week. Furthermore, while their 62.75 plays per game puts them in the "average" category, it's the 11th highest in the NFL.

Typically, we want our offenses at home, but the issue with Baltimore has been building huge leads and slowing down in the second half, so traveling to Cincinnati is a good thing. The Bengals have the dream combination of a poor defense and a great offense, which should result in plenty of points scored on both sides. This is also the belief of Vegas, which has this one at a 49-point over/under, the second-highest of the week.

The obvious: Lamar Jackson is one of the few consistent signal-callers for fantasy, thanks to his rushing baseline. Not to mention his ceiling when the other team can keep pace. Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing yards with 480. He's also tied for the most rushing touchdowns with five.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - While there's reason to be optimistic about the pass-catchers in this one because Jackson will need to drop back more than 20 times, it's difficult to trust any of Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, or Isaiah Likely. However, Justice Hill has averaged four-and-a-half targets per game and three-and-a-half rushing attempts, making him a viable flex option, especially if we get the shootout we're hoping for.

Offense No. 2 - Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are not where they want to be, sitting at 1-3. That said, their offensive weapons are healthy and they look in sync.

If you remove their abysmal outing in Week 1, they've averaged 30.66 points per game, which would rank second in the NFL, 3.33 offensive touchdowns per week, which would rank third, and 376.33 yards, which would rank seventh. By all accounts, they're a top-10 offense that's fresh off a decisive win over Carolina.

We discussed the possible barn burner above, which they're the other half of. Baltimore has a tough defense, but the matchups between these two have been competitive and high-scoring, even when Joe Burrow was out. It lost both contests last season, one of which Burrow left early and the other he missed, but each one cleared 50 points. Fire up your Bengals this week.

The obvious: Ja'Marr Chase is progressively paying off the first-round capital many fantasy managers invested in. Meanwhile, Zack Moss, the lone bright spot in Week 1, has three finishes inside the top 20 with 36 opportunities in the past two weeks, earning him a slot in your lineup.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Joe Burrow has at least two passing touchdowns and 232 passing yards in each of his past three starts. He's a quality streaming option that has a decent floor-ceiling combo.

Player No. 2 - Tee Higgins has yet to put it all together for a big performance, but he looked healthy and commanded 10 targets in Week 4. It's only a matter of time before he hits, and there's a good chance it's this week against the Ravens.

Player No. 3 - Chase Brown has been slowly emerging as a nice complement to Moss, who began the year as a near workhorse. Against the Panthers, they split the backfield carries 15 apiece and Brown earned just one fewer target. He also cashed in on both attempts inside the 5-yard line for two touchdowns. He's worth considering as a flex option, especially with some key tailbacks on a bye this week.

Offense No. 3 - Minnesota Vikings 

Through four weeks, two undefeated teams are remaining. Many people would have guessed the Chiefs fairly easily. However, you'd probably run through about 20-25 franchises before you landed on the Vikings, who are also 4-0.

The statistics back it up, too. They're fourth in points per game with 29, tied for third in offensive TDs per week with 3.25, and 10th in offensive yards at 340.75. Unsurprisingly, they've run the fifth-fewest plays because they've outscored their opponents 115-59 on the year.

Their defense has been incredible, and their offense is not far behind. Facing the Jets and their putrid offense in London, England provides another opportunity for a beatdown. New York's secondary is elite, but so are the skill players on offense for Minnesota. Plus, we saw the 49ers win handedly in Week 1.

The obvious: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones are crushing it. Addison returned from his ankle injury and immediately made an impact with two total scores. Jefferson has found the end zone in every game while Jones has over 100 scrimmage yards in three of four weeks.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - The man leading the charge is Sam Darnold, who has gone from laughingstock to MVP candidate. It's a wild world we live in. Darnold is the only quarterback to toss multiple touchdowns in every contest, a category he leads the NFL in. He's worth a start as a top-12 signal-caller.

Offense No. 4 - Green Bay Packers

On the other side of the 31-point outburst from Minnesota was Green Bay. The Packers got their young superstar back from injury, which made a massive difference. The offense went from run-oriented to pass-centric, some of which was influenced by the game script.

Jordan Love played in Weeks 1 and 4. In those two outings, the Packers averaged 29 points per game, which would be tied for fourth most, 3.5 offensive touchdowns, which would be second highest, and 439.5 offensive yards, which would be No. 1. Although some of that is inflated by their furious comeback last week, you can confidently consider them a high-powered unit.

Next up is the Rams' brutal pass defense, opening the door for everyone to have a great game. It also helps that Matthew Stafford always finds a way to stay in the matchup, pushing his opponents to air it out. The over/under in that one is 48.5, ranking third on the week.

The obvious: Josh Jacobs might have an Emanuel Wilson problem, but for at least the time being, he's locked in. Jayden Reed has flown somewhat under the radar because of Love's injury. He has 11 receptions for 277 yards and two scores with two carries for 35 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the two weeks Love started.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Speaking of Jordan Love, he balled out despite playing hurt. Another week to get healthy will serve him well. He's in the top 10, if not the top five, this week.

Player No. 2 - The issue for Dontayvion Wicks has repeatedly been earning enough snaps. He's been stuck behind Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson, making him a rotational player. We've seen flashes when one of those three is inactive, which was the case again last week when Watson exited with an ankle injury. Wicks went on to haul in five balls for 28 yards with two trips to the end zone. He's a player most fantasy managers should be starting this week.

Player No. 3 - Similar to Wicks, Tucker Kraft is also a beneficiary of the Watson injury. Additionally, he's iced Luke Musgrave for the No. 1 tight end role, making him a top-12 option at a position with very few reliable players to choose from.

Offense No. 5 - Chicago Bears

We decided to mix in an offense that has not lived up to expectations in 2024. Chicago drafted Caleb Williams, the surefire prospect, first overall in a move that was set to change the franchise.

The Bears are a long way from that coming to fruition, but they did show signs of improvement in Week 4. They took down the Rams at home, scoring 24 points and generating 264 yards of offense with three offensive touchdowns.

It was the first time since Week 1 they had their trio of wideouts active, which helped Williams settle in. His play was average, but he corrected his mistakes and completed 70.8% of his passes. It gives you a sense of hope, particularly when the matchup is good. Cue the Panthers.

The Bears are back at Solider Field against Carolina, who has done well to improve on offense, but still can't get things figured out on defense. It's a leap of faith we're willing to take.

The obvious: DJ Moore is the only player who warrants a spot here. And even that's debatable. The matchup is too good to pass up, though.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Caleb Williams continues to add production on the ground, making him a decent streamer in a week without Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff.

Player No. 2 - The Bears eliminated Khalil Herbert from the equation last week, turning this backfield into a two-headed monster. D'Andre Swift went nuclear in the box score with 165 combined yards and a score. However, Roschon Johnson may be a more talented tailback, so he should not be overlooked. It's risky to target multiple players from the same backfield in an offense that has underwhelmed, but this sets up perfectly for these two, who can both catch passes.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 5. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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