Fantasy Football Matchups Analysis - Super Bowl LV

February 7, 2021

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for all 2021 Super Bowl LV matchups. Frank analyzes in-depth matchups via player-by-player breakdowns.

Hey everyone, welcome back! While the season-long fantasy season is over, it's a great time to keep it rolling and try to make some money in DFS. With that in mind, this article will be more DFS-centric for the NFL playoffs.

Welcome to our Super Bowl matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be analyzing the Super Bowl slate, helping you optimize your daily fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.

Frank Ammirante will be covering the big game this week. If you have any additional questions, follow him on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that DFS victory!

Matchups Analysis 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchups We Love:

QB Patrick Mahomes ($16,500 FanDuel, $12,000 DraftKings)

Mahomes is in a smash spot against this Bucs pass-funnel defense. Tampa Bay's run defense (3.41 YPC allowed, first in NFL) is the best in football, so teams tend to go with a pass-heavy approach (39 pass attempts allowed, most in NFL). This sets up nicely for a Chiefs offense that loves to air it out (60% passing offense in neutral game scripts, sixth-most in NFL). When these teams met back in Week 12, Mahomes attempted 49 passes and threw for 462 yards. We can project an uptick in passing volume, which gives Mahomes a great chance at reaching his ceiling in this matchup.

WR Tyreek Hill ($14,000 FanDuel, $10,400 DraftKings)

Hill went nuclear against this defense back in Week 12, catching 13-of-15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. The projected increase in passing volume for this Chiefs offense should provide weapons like Hill with opportunities to make splash plays here. While the Chiefs' offensive line is depleted just in time to face off against a strong Bucs pass-rush, Mahomes has shown the ability to evade pass-rushers with a high degree of effectiveness, so this might not hurt the passing game as much as you think. Hill should at least be able to eclipse the century mark in this matchup.

TE Travis Kelce ($14,500 FanDuel, $11,000 DraftKings)

Kelce continued his unprecedented hot streak against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, catching 13-of-15 targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He's now put up 100+ yards in seven of his last 10 games, totaling 86 receptions, 1,192 yards, and nine touchdowns during that span. Those are absolutely absurd numbers and you need to fire up Kelce in the majority of your single-game lineups this week. He has the best combination of floor and ceiling in this matchup.

WR Chris Godwin ($12,000 FanDuel, $8,800 DraftKings)

Godwin is really starting to click with Tom Brady, putting up 75+ yards in four of his last five games. He's the best option in this Bucs passing game. During the postseason, Godwin has led the team with a 26.42% target share. While the Chiefs have been tough against wide receivers (second-fewest fantasy points per game allowed) and just limited Stefon Diggs to six receptions for 77 yards, Godwin remains the top target in a passing game that is firing on all cylinders. Expect Godwin to lead the team in targets in this game.

Matchups We Hate:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($10,000 FanDuel, $7,000 DraftKings)
RB Darrel Williams ($9,000 FanDuel, $5,200 DraftKings)

The Chiefs will have a tough time running the football against a Bucs defense that ranks first in run DVOA and just got back their elite run-stuffing interior defensive lineman in Vita Vea last game. Williams (63.16% snaps, 14 touches) shared the workload with CEH (49.23% snaps, seven touches) last game. Le'Veon Bell is a non-factor, as he'll likely see very limited action in this game. Williams is the preferred play because it seems like Andy Reid prefers to ride him given the usage we saw against Buffalo, but this is a situation to avoid.

Other Matchups:

WR Sammy Watkins ($7,500 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)
WR Mecole Hardman ($7,500 FanDuel, $5,600 DraftKings)

This game sets up nicely for the Chiefs' ancillary receivers due to the uptick in passing volume and questionable status for Demarcus Robinson, who is currently on the COVID-19 reserve list. Even if Robinson plays, I think it will be in a limited role. Watkins looks likely to return to the lineup, but it remains to be seen how much he'll actually be used in this offense. That makes Hardman one of my favorite value plays on this slate. The only reason that he's not in the love section is that he still sees limited volume, but his big-play ability keeps him firmly on the radar. I'd bet that one of these two wide receivers makes an impact in this game.

QB Tom Brady ($15,000 FanDuel, $10,000 DraftKings)

Brady has a tough matchup against a Chiefs Defense that just limited Josh Allen to a 58% completion rate with only 6.0 yards per attempt, so we need to temper our expectations in this matchup. Brady has also been a bit disappointing during this postseason, completing 60-of-109 passes (55%) for 860 yards (7.9 Y/A), seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. Still, he's obviously worth a look in a game that projects to have a ton of fireworks, but I don't think he's a must-play here.

RB Leonard Fournette ($12,500 FanDuel, $7,800 DraftKings)
RB Ronald Jones II ($8,000 FanDuel, $2,200 DraftKings)

Fournette has been the preferred running back throughout this postseason, particularly in the passing game, but Jones has still seen usage on the ground, putting up only six fewer carries than Fournette in the last two games. The Chiefs ranked 31st in run DVOA this season, so this is a good spot for the Bucs' backfield. The only reason why they aren't in the love section is that it's tough to predict which back has the big game. Jones is severely underpriced on DraftKings, so I would recommend using him there. If the Bucs jump out to an early lead, we could see more usage for Jones. Make sure to have exposure to both of these players in your DFS lineups.

Mike Evans ($11,500 FanDuel, $8,400 DraftKings)
Antonio Brown ($9,500 FanDuel, 6,200 DraftKings)
Scotty Miller ($6,500 FanDuel, $3,400 DraftKings)

Evans is the preferred downfield target with the most touchdown equity on the team, but he's combined for four receptions and 54 yards in the last two games, making him a lukewarm option against a tough Chiefs pass defense. Brown missed the Packers game but he looks good to go for this one. Still, it's unclear how much he'll really be used in this game, making him a risky choice. The good news is that his injury could keep his ownership percentage down. Miller has combined for six targets in three playoff games, but he should continue to some increased usage even if Brown plays since AB is currently banged up.

TE Cameron Brate ($7,000 FanDuel, $4,800 DraftKings)
TE Rob Gronkowski ($6,500 FanDuel, $3,000 DraftKings)

Brate (11 receptions for 149 yards and one touchdown) has been the preferred receiving tight end, out-producing Gronk (two receptions for 43 yards) throughout this postseason. However, Brate is currently dealing with a back injury, putting his status in question for this game. If Brate is OUT, we could see Gronk play more of a role as a receiver. For a player with the second-highest touchdown equity on the team, that bodes well for his outlook. When these two teams met in Week 12, Gronk caught six passes for 106 yards. Keep a close eye on Brate's status.

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