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Kev Mahserejian's must-have fantasy football PPR draft targets and sleepers. These are some of his favorite WR, RB and TE value picks for PPR scoring formats.
Given that PPR leagues have essentially taken over as the new standard format across fantasy football, this article may seem fairly redundant with other "must-have" pieces but nevertheless provides valuable information. PPR scoring is inherently flawed given that dump-off pass-catchers that do not impact the actual game heavily are overweight in value. We are not moving away from it as a community anytime soon, but just know that high-PPR scorers aren't always great football players.
For example, someone like Gus Edwards who is about to take on a larger workload in one of the NFL's best offenses may not be very relevant in PPR scoring. He could legitimately go for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns while scoring fewer points per game than James White or Nyheim Hines. PPR is a tricky format because we are often enamored with pedigree but I am here to help.
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PPR Running Backs
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
ADP: RB17
Lions running back D'Andre Swift has received some unfair treatment of late due to a lingering groin issue. Reports have swirled about his status for Week 1 and whether he would be in "game shape" but from what practice reports suggest, he's been available and productive. The Lions have stated their preference for a running back committee loud and clear by signing Jamaal Williams and proclaiming him the "1A to Swift's 1B" but we can see through this.
Even if Jamaal Williams outcarries him, Swift will not only be one of the offense's top targets, but also the goal-line back. Swift as a rookie in 13 games scored eight touchdowns on the ground. Williams has 10 scores to show for his four-year career with 50 games played.
Swift is the clear-cut best RB in that room and will be productive when on the field this season by being one of the only receiving talents they possess. T.J. Hockenson is likely to receive the first look on targets and lead the offense but it is in the realm of possibility for Jared Goff to dump it to Swift plenty when trouble arises. Swift will be called upon plenty when the Lions are playing from behind as his 12% target share last season was only the beginning. The number 32 defense from last season can really only improve so much.
The big issue for Swift will be staying on the field due to recent injuries, but if he's healthy, expect massive production.
Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: RB29
The Cardinals downgraded Edmonds' competition by allowing Kenyan Drake to walk and signing James Conner to act as the "lead" back. This is similar to the above situation with Swift and Williams where despite one player likely to lead the team in carries, the other is the actual RB1. This is very true for Arizona as well given that Edmonds is very talented and provides a versatile skillset that is only limited by his smaller frame. Performing on his touches is far less of an issue than how many he could exactly handle.
Also, Kenyan Drake's usage last season was egregious but it could be explained by the massive $8 million dollar transition tag he signed to stay in Arizona after breaking out in the second half of 2019. Conner is making $1.75 million this year which is less than a quarter of Drake's money. If Conner disappoints, he will not be given a similar length of rope and Edmonds will be provided an avenue for significantly increased touches.
Edmonds' targets (12% share) and yards-per-target jumped last season and cemented him as the Cardinals' scat-back at worst. Their defense (particularly secondary) is awful and could get worse if Chandler Jones is actually traded as he requested. The Cardinals will be playing catch-up in games or finding themselves in shootouts often.
PPR Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
ADP: WR47
Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry is basically on a list like this every season. He is the description of "better in PPR" as his usage has always been massive and despite an inefficient start to his career, the past two seasons in Cleveland have worked wonders for his per-target numbers.
The most important thing to remember with Landry is that he was coming off hip surgery last offseason and it severely deterred the start of his season. Landry had just one game with more than 15 PPR points until Week 12! Landry finished the season strong with 369 yards on 44 targets in just five games with four total touchdowns to boot.
Even with Odell Beckham Jr. returning this season, we should expect Jarvis Landry to lead Cleveland in targets given his rapport with Baker Mayfield and the fact that OBJ is returning from a torn ACL.
Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
ADP: WR67
Giants slot receiver Sterling Shepard was unfairly played out of position as a perimeter WR last season due to the team's lack of receiving talent but he projects back into his happy place for 2021--the slot. Shepard is oft-forgotten as the WR2 in New York but has been as consistent as they come (when on the field). Over the course of his career, the lowest target share he held was 17.5% his rookie season which is very good in and of itself but it hit as high as 24% last year! Shepard's target share has cracked 20% three times over his five-year career.
The big issue with Shepard is staying on the field. Concussions are a massive concern but that is basically baked into his ADP. He's going off the board as a WR6 which is absurd considering that he's a WR3 when on the field. If he gets hurt, just drop him but take advantage of the games you can get. He's never played fewer than double-digit games and is just so, so cheap. Kenny Golladay's presence should help open up more of the field and allow the most room for Shep to operate since OBJ left.
Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
ADP: WR77
Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder will be pressed for targets relative to recent years with the additions of Corey Davis and Elijah Moore but he remains one of the league's "premier" slot receivers who could also get traded to a team in need of his skillset. Keelan Cole was added as well, but he projects worse for competing targets as things stand.
If buying Crowder, you aren't buying what he is, rather what he could be elsewhere. He had 122 targets in 2019 and paced 119 last season but only played 12 games, making the 89 targets look less appetizing. Crowder is a target hog in the middle of the field and has a 25% target share over the past two seasons. That number is fit for a solid WR1, not a slot man. Expect that number to decrease wherever Crowder plays this season but still produce highly valuable PPR numbers.
PPR Tight Ends
Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
ADP: TE21
Browns tight end Austin Hooper was painted poorly by his 2020 season. He started off extremely slow but began to pick up his production until a mid-season appendectomy sidelined him for several weeks. He was nearly useless afterward and limited with more of a blocking role.
The Browns signed Hooper to the largest TE contract in free agency up to that point and will use him despite keeping David Njoku for one last (?) ride. Harrison Bryant is not very good and will be relegated to more of a blocking role while Hooper is on the field.
Also consider the team transition last offseason, lack of reps with Baker Mayfield, and a COVID-ravaged team trying to build early-season rapport. The team pass volume in Cleveland is not ideal, but Hooper did manage an 18.5% target share in a down year and was second on the team in targets despite missing three games.
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