Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids - AFC East Breakdowns

July 16, 2024

Adam looks at each NFL team in the AFC East and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2024.

Fantasy football draft season is right around the corner. What better way to start your preparation than by looking at some targets and avoids from around the league? That's exactly what we'll aim to do in this article

Here, we'll take a look specifically at the AFC East. Which players should you be targeting in 2024 fantasy football drafts, and which players should you be avoiding? Of course, you may want to target or avoid more than one player from each of these teams, but I've selected my favorite player to target and the guy I'm most trying to avoid drafting this season.

Without further ado, here are my top targets and avoids for every AFC East team in 2024.

Buffalo Bills

Target – Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel finds himself with the stone-cold best opportunity of his career. Granted, it’s coming in his eighth NFL season, but better late than never, right? Not only will he be catching passes from Josh Allen, but he’ll be getting play calls from Joe Brady, his former offensive coordinator in Carolina. Samuel had his best statistical season with Brady in 2020. He was used as a Swiss army knife for the Panthers, racking up 1,051 total yards on 118 touches. 34.7% of those touches came on the ground.

Curtis Samuel doing Curtis Samuel things.

Third-straight week with a rushing touchdown for him. pic.twitter.com/3HEHIFzOuk

— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 8, 2020

Now you think about who he’s competing against for targets in 2024. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave behind 241 vacated targets. Dalton Kincaid saw 91 targets last season, and then it was James Cook with 54, Khalil Shakir with 45, and Dawson Knox with 36. Unless you consider Kincaid the next Travis Kelce or rookie Keon Coleman the next Mike Evans, Samuel has the clearest path he’s ever had to be the highest target-earner on the team. In Carolina, he played with Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, while in Washington, he played second fiddle to Terry McLaurin. 

In his last couple of seasons in Washington, Samuel has been primarily as a slot guy. He’s played over 50% of his snaps from the slot and has only seen snap shares of 71.8% and 56.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. His snap share was way down last season, but now he gets a fresh start on a team that prioritized his services in free agency. But not only that, Shakir ran 69% of his routes from the slot last season for the Bills. Naturally, that would push Samuel to the outside. And don’t for a second think Samuel can’t win on the outside, he absolutely can!

Yards per route run from the perimeter (2022-23)

Curtis Samuel is good! https://t.co/lv4PP9F111 pic.twitter.com/VhcBLdT77C

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 14, 2024

Avoid – Keon Coleman

Seven receivers were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Coleman was not one of them. That doesn’t mean he won’t succeed at the next level, but there are some obvious red flags in his game. The first red flag is that he can't separate. Just listen to the wide receiver guru (Matt Harmon) talk about Coleman's body of work in college:

Keon Coleman struggled to separate against man coverage in college but #ReceptionPerception history shows there is still a path forward in the NFL for a player of this archetype. pic.twitter.com/IQoODczlRu

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 16, 2024

About a month ago, Bills general manager Brandon Beane was asked about Coleman in OTAs. His response was telling. He talked about adjusting from college to the pros. He also talked about helping in the run game at the next level. That’s a much different vibe than the reports coming out of Cardinals and Giants camp about fellow rookies Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

#Bills GM Brandon Beane on Keon Coleman

ADP 70 on @UnderdogFantasy feels kinda pricey! pic.twitter.com/rx6n1SIR8z

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 14, 2024

Right now, Coleman has the highest Sleeper average draft position (ADP) of all the Bills wide receivers (99.7). In reality, he could very well be fourth or fifth in the pecking order for targets behind Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and even Cook. He's a hard pass at that price point.

Miami Dolphins

Target – De'Von Achane

Here’s a guy who put up video game-type numbers in his rookie season. Achane averaged a whopping 21.1 PPR fantasy points per game in just nine games last season. He did that while playing on just 43.3% of the snaps, with a backfield opportunity share of just 40.6%. It’s almost a guarantee both of those percentages will rise in his second NFL season. For running backs, year two is typically when the biggest volume increases normally take place.

9/10 of the biggest RB workload increases (that mattered) have occurred in Year 2.

Largest jumps in Weighted Opportunities/G
[min. 8 games, results in 15+ FPG, 2014-23]

1. *James Conner, 2018 [+16.8 WO/G]
2. *Kyren Williams, 2023 [+15.6]
3. *Devonta Freeman, 2015 [+15.4]
4.…

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 11, 2024

That makes a lot of sense, as teams now have data and NFL tape to analyze these guys. And Achane’s data and tape were downright special last season. Per PlayerProfiler, he was first among running backs in yards per touch (7.7) and breakaway run rate (12.6%), second in true yards per carry (6.6), and fourth in yards created per touch (4.62). Our own Kyle Lindemann put together a sweet video of Achane burning defenders and making guys miss.

#GoFins RB De’Von Achane among RBs in 2023 (min 100 carries) 🏈🥵

Yards After Contact: 4.94 (1st)
Breakaway Run Rate: 53.4% (1st)
Fantasy Points per Touch: 1.36 (1st)
Yards per Carry: 7.8 (1st) pic.twitter.com/hRz7PljslB

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 24, 2024

Even with an inflated Sleeper ADP of 22.0, this is still a player you should heavily target in fantasy drafts this season. He may not play all 17 games, but then again, which running backs do play all 17? When he pops off for 30+ fantasy points on multiple occasions, you’ll be grateful you drafted him in the middle-to-late second round in 2024.

Avoid – Raheem Mostert

It feels kind of crazy to suggest avoiding a guy who scored 21 total touchdowns last season. But that’s exactly what I’m doing. Despite having a relatively reasonable ADP of 83.4 (RB25), Mostert comes equipped with a lot of risk in 2024. 

First, he’s now 32 years old and coming off a season with a career-high 209 carries. He scored a touchdown every 11.1 touches, an insane number. In 2022, he scored a touchdown just every 42.4 touches. Touchdowns aren’t sticky, meaning they’re not consistent from year to year, as you can see from this sample. 

Second, the Dolphins drafted “Mostert insurance” in Jaylen Wright. At 5-foot-11, 210 lbs, Wright has a good combination of size and speed. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and thus finds himself with a 95th percentile speed score (per PlayerProfiler). Here’s Mostert acknowledging he’s at the tail end of his career and just wants to make an impact. Almost sounds as if he knows they drafted his replacement.

🎥 Raheem Mostert on the Miami Dolphins drafting Jaylen Wright and mentoring the rookie RB: “All in all, I’m happy for him to be in the room… I’m going on the tail end of my career and I want to be able to make an impact somehow.” (@nflnetwork) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/0eCNkUY0rK

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) May 29, 2024

Third, Mostert’s snap share (57.3%) and opportunity share (53%) from 2023 are almost certain to come down after Achane’s historically efficient rookie season. The second-year back out of Texas A&M is a lock to see an exponential increase in opportunities. There are only so many snaps in a game, and Achane is going to see the majority of those out of the backfield this season.

Mostert also saw his work in the passing game fall as a result of Achane's presence. After the Bye last season, he saw just 1.3 targets on nine routes (27.7% route participation) per game in four games played with Achane.

So not only is Mostert battling Achane, but he’s now battling another pair of fresh legs in the rookie from Tennessee. Don’t let the suppressed ADP fool you; he’s falling in fantasy drafts for a reason. Avoid Mostert in 2024.

New England Patriots

Target – Demario Douglas

Pop Douglas can ball; that’s not a question. Just check out the tape from his rookie season:

Cleansing the timeline with DeMario Douglas highlights pic.twitter.com/KMaLzgBSM2

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) March 15, 2024

And he was really good in college too. Here’s a graph that charts targets per route run and first downs or touchdowns per route run. Douglas finds himself amongst some pretty good company in Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison Jr., Tank Dell, Josh Downs, and Rashee Rice, to name a few.

Yards per Routes Run (YPRR) is a solid metric but it doesn't always tell us the whole story and can be skewed based on the # of WRs on the field. Here are the Targets per Routes Run and 1st Downs or TDs per Route from the last 2 draft classes. Anything stand out? pic.twitter.com/gXnbZNGxjJ

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 14, 2024

And that translated to the NFL. Douglas averaged 6.8 targets per game once he became a “full-time” receiver starting in Week 6. His 17% target share and 24.8% target rate are very solid numbers for an undersized sixth-round rookie out of Liberty. 

And now, this season, there’s a whole new coaching regime in New England. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt had the Cleveland Browns running one of the fastest offenses in football last season. Not only that, but Drake Maye thinks Douglas could be his new Josh Downs:

Drake Maye on DeMario Douglas:

“Pop reminds me a lot of a guy I played with in college, Josh Downs. They do a lot of the same things: can’t guard them in a phone booth, they’re twitchy.” pic.twitter.com/3373AezdiW

— Brian Hines (@iambrianhines) June 5, 2024

Bet on talent and target Pop Douglas in 2024 on what should be a much-improved Patriots offense with much-improved quarterback play.

Avoid – Rhamondre Stevenson

The Patriots gave Stevenson a vote of confidence this offseason by handing him a four-year, $36M contract with $17M guaranteed. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to hit a home run for our fantasy teams. 

Per NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, the Patriots are projected to win just 5.3 games in 2024. That’s the lowest mark of any team in the AFC and the second-fewest of any team in the NFL (only the Panthers are projected for fewer wins at 5.0). Generally speaking, we want to target running backs on good teams for fantasy football. Last season, New England tied with Carolina for the fewest points scored per game at 13.9. Not great. We want our running backs to score a lot of touchdowns. 

Now, it’s certainly possible the Patriots are much better with a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback. But that doesn’t usually happen overnight unless you’re the Houston Texans. So we’ll assume New England stays among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. 

Now add Antonio Gibson to the mix in the Patriots backfield. Another way for running backs to be valuable in fantasy football is through the passing game. Gibson has historically been one of the better pass-catching backs in the league throughout his four-year career in Washington.

Did anybody know Antonio Gibson used to play WR in college? pic.twitter.com/BmtJ9hqIys

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 23, 2024

Stevenson, on the other hand, was given a bottom-10 receiving grade last season (51.2). Additionally, much like Stevenson, Gibson is an elite pass-blocking running back. Both guys were graded inside the top 10 in that category, per PFF.

So while Stevenson likely has the early down role, he’s also likely to lose out on some targets with Gibson in town. And the last thing we want for our running backs in fantasy football is to lose out on targets, especially when they’re on a team that is projected to win just 5.3 games. It could be an uphill battle for Stevenson to pay off at his 81.5 ADP this season.

New York Jets

Target – Breece Hall

Breece Hall is incredible. He finished the 2023 season as RB6 despite playing on one of the worst offenses in football. The Jets averaged the fourth-fewest points per game (15.8) and third-fewest red zone scoring attempts per game (2.2). 

Still, Hall was one of the best backs in the league last season. Per PlayerProfiler, he was first among running backs in evaded tackles (77), fifth in juke rate (25.8%), 10th in yards created per touch (3.9), and 11th in yards per touch (5.3). 

Not sure people realize quite how good Breece Hall was in 2023 pic.twitter.com/a7H3lA1Qc2

— Will Parkinson (@Willpa11) July 9, 2024

Not only that, but Hall is an absolute bell cow for the Jets. Despite a slow ramp-up in the first four weeks of the season, he still had the 12th-highest opportunity share (68.2%) and led the league in targets (95). His nine total touchdowns last season were quite the accomplishment, given how little the Jets found themselves in the red zone. To finish as a top-6 running back with just 10 carries inside the 10-yard line is pretty incredible. To put that in perspective, Justice Hill, Ezekiel Elliott, Zach Charbonnet, and Dameon Pierce each had more rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. 

So take his opportunity and play-making ability and upgrade the quarterback from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. RB6 is his floor, and an overall RB1 is his ceiling. With more scoring opportunities in 2024 to go alongside his role in the passing game, Hall will challenge Christian McCaffrey as the overall RB1 this season. Target him in your fantasy drafts.

Avoid - Aaron Rodgers

I like Garrett Wilson (a lot), I like Breece Hall (a lot), but their quarterback for fantasy football? Not so much. He's coming off an Achilles tear in Week 1 last season, so for all intents and purposes, he's "new" to this offense. The last time we saw him was back in 2022 with the Packers when he threw for a career-low 3,695 yards and ran for a career-low 94 yards (only counting full seasons played). Now at the age of 40 and coming off an Achilles tear, Rodgers doesn't come without risk in 2024.

The Jets have had one of the best defenses in the league in the last two seasons, allowing just 19.8 points per game. There's a good chance the Jets don't need Rodgers to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns every game. In 2022, when the Packers allowed 21.8 points per game, he didn't top 20 fantasy points in any single game. That year, he finished as QB24 on a per-game basis. This season, he's being drafted as QB20. While not overly expensive, there's also not much of an upside case in drafting an aging Rodgers this season.

Draft his number one wideout, his workhorse running back, and possibly his tight end (Tyler Conklin) as a late-round guy, but don't waste your time drafting Rodgers and trying to decide what weeks to play him. Get yourself a mobile quarterback and "set it and forget it."

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