Fantasy Football ADP Risers at Quarterback - Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson

July 17, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of three quarterbacks and assesses their fantasy football situations and draft value based on draft price.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-June to mid-July using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three quarterback risers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Risers

Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers

It took time--probably more than everybody wanted--but it was always going to happen. With his future in Ohio pretty much buried twenty feet or deeper, Baker got traded by the Cleveland Browns at the start of July, ending a four-year partnership with the team that drafted him in 2018. Don't get this wrong, though, as Mayfield played nearly every game since arriving in Cleveland and never got benched for extended periods of time because of injuries, let alone disciplinary/playing-level reasons. Baker leaves the Browns with 59 starts under his belt and 60 games played for Cleveland, not bad for a four-year span in which he could have topped at 65 games.

Mayfield has yet to have a legitimate QB1 fantasy season, though, with his best finish taking place in 2018 as a rookie when he put up 240.1 FP for a QB16 finish. Other than that, he's been the QB19, QB17, and QB25 last year in 14 games played. When it comes to average FPPG, he's been a wild asset with fluctuating figures of 17.2, 14.6, 15.5, and most recently 12.9, a career-wost to cap the 2021 year and his last season in Cleveland.

The Panthers are adding Mayfield to make him their starting quarterback from the get-go. The gamble on Cam Newton didn't work, and neither did the trade for former New York Jet Sam Darnold. This is bad news from Darnold and even worse for rookie Matt Corral, now buried down the depth chart to a QB3 role. No need to mention poor (and probably soon-to-be-released) P.J. Walker. Fantasy GMs are starting to draft Baker like madmen out there and the QB is now sporting an ADP of QB29 and has just broken the 200th-overall ADP. PFF has not updated the projections, but they have Sam Darnold scoring 230 FP next year. Even a good bump up from Mayfield (say, one to reach 285 FP over 17 games) wouldn't move the needle that much for the newcomer, who would finish as a borderline QB2 in that scenario given PFF's latest run of projections. Simply put: fade Baker.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

The ADP rise is just a little over a full round in 12-team leagues, but that's more than most fantasy QBs can say. After a rather bad rookie year coming off one of the most-hyped ever draft when it comes to putting a kid above the sky and then some, fantasy GMs seem to be getting to their senses and drafting Lawrence at a proper ADP. That said and although it keeps (slowly but surely) raising, the current trend makes sense because the cratering ADP never really did.

Lawrence was last year's clear-cut no. 1 NFL draft pick and that, combined with his NCAA exploits, made for a 70.8-overall and QB12 ADP cocktail. No bueno, considering all Lawrence did in JAX was play to a QB23 finish (still the 71st-best overall player in PPR-format leagues, though) that left fantasy GMs looking hella bad. Nobody was going to spend a fifth/sixth-round pick in Lawrence this season after his 2021 year, but the below-150th ADP was also ludicrous to look at considering much worse players at the position were getting drafted at much more expensive ADPs earlier this offseason.

Things are now settling in the 100-to-130th-overall pick when it comes to drafting T-Law and that's much more reasonable all things considered. PFF projects Lawrence to around 300 FP and a QB21 finish, which is nothing to call home about but looks more like his floor than his ceiling. In the past five seasons, fantasy QBs drafted in that range (min. 12 starts) have finished as the QB13 on average and also as the top-35th fantasy player overall (no position filter). Seven of the 31 QBs of the group scored 300+ PPR points, and 20 of the 31 averaged 16+ FPPG over those years. If you reach the 10th round of your draft without a quarterback and Lawrence is still available, you should seriously consider drafting him. Bargain by the (historical) looks of it.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Zach Wilson's rise up the draft boards is a little harder to understand than the cases of Mayfield/Lawrence, although it is also true that he's only seen a 10-pick bump up compared to the other two one-round-plus stock increases. Wilson, along with Lawrence, was part of the dreadful class of 2021 rookie quarterbacks to enter the NFL. Because of a lot of extraordinary opportunities and QB1 slots being available all across the league, as many as five players started at least 10 games in 2021, though none of them reached even 225 FP and Mac Jones was the only one above 200... ugh. Wilson finished with 151.9 and a per-game average of 11.7 FPPG in his 13 games with the Jets.

Wilson had an ADP of QB12 last season right behind fellow freshmen Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. None of them did a lot with Wilson and Lawrence tied at 11.7 FPPG and Mills getting 12.1 FPPG himself. None of those three teams had a magnificent group of pass-catchers, so that didn't help. They won't have one next season, either, so the ADP rise should be a little bit worrying for those making that happen.

When it comes to Wilson and the Jets, Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR1 last year) is gone, and the team has replaced it with rookie Garrett Wilson. That's it, that's all New York has done at the position trusting the men in place already, and only bolstering the TE position with the addition of C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. Other than a little report by ESPN's Rich Cimini in which he talked about Denzel Mims getting more comfortable in the passing game, there has been no other news that one would expect to boost Wilson's ADP. Everything has stayed the same, and so should the ADP. Don't overpay for Wilson until he see him excelling on the field--or even just avoiding any sort of mediocre level of play, which has been the case from his debut to this day.

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