December 29, 2017

Kent looks at NBA players who are overvalued and undervalued in fantasy basketball based on real-life perception.

First of all, happy holidays to all of our readers! You are all hopefully spending quality time with friends and family, but we’re still going to keep providing great content for those who want a little breather, as the NBA season is as awake as ever during the holidays, and your leagues’ standings don’t take a break either, so here we go.

Recently, I read an eye opening article from the amazing Ben Falk over at Cleaning The Glass. He looks over confusion caused by inconsistencies in wording and descriptions, as well as the use of probabilistic language (“could”, “might”, “likely” etc.), when going over our evaluations for NBA prospects. An example Ben gave was that a person saying “I’m not a huge fan” and another saying “Really? He’s not bad” could be thinking of the exact same level of projection, while the perception of the statement can look entirely different.

This leads right into fantasy, and how the same type of evaluation inconsistency clouds perception for us, and leads to an optics gaps between a given player’s perceived fantasy value and their real value. In today’s Twitter-dominated age, we are exposed to multiple hot takes after every game, where every hot streak and cold streak by a player is scrutinized by thousands of people with varying points of view, and sometimes, our perception of what each player truly is as an asset in our game can become seriously clouded over days, months, even years. These valuation gaps can be taken advantage of when drafting as well as when negotiating trades.

Perception > Reality – The Overrated Fantasy Assets

We’re going to take a deep look at some players who I feel have fallen into this phenomenon, where there are real gaps between what the generally accepted perception of them is both in real life and in fantasy. Keep in mind that this is looking at standard category leagues only (8/9-cat), valuations would be different for point leagues and for DFS. We’ll start by looking at those whose perception greatly exceeds their production.

Russell Westbrook - PG, OKC

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 4^th/8^th, 2016-2017: 2^nd/8^th, 2017-2018: 15^th/35^th
Perception: Stat stuffer/padder, better fantasy than real life player
Reality: Restrictive build-around 1^st rounder for fantasy, elite on/off numbers, better real life than fantasy player

The perception of Russ as a player has always been that he fills up the stat sheet and pads his stats, making him a better player for fantasy than in reality. In fact, the opposite is true. Russ does not deserve the amount of hate that he gets from people. Sure he is prone to lapses but his overall body of work should absolutely make up for it, and metrics will tell the story perfectly. Russ has been a fixture in the top 10 for win shares, box plus/minus, net rating, real plus/minus, VORP and even PER for the last 5 years. The Thunder have been 13.8 points/100 possessions better with Russ on the court this season, despite what’s been an off year for him for the most part so far. This isn’t new, as Russ has been near the 95^th percentile in his on/off numbers for the past 3 years. This doesn’t even take into account the intangibles, where Russ is a phenomenal leader whose heart and motor set a great example for teammates, and is a significant part of the great culture that the Thunder have been able to cultivate.

Despite being a huge Russ fan due to the reasons I mentioned above, I have never owned Russ in fantasy before even though I’ve been playing 3-5 competitive money leagues a year for the last 5 years. The reason is because drafting Russ with an early first severely limits the direction of your team, and I believe strongly in staying open with your first round pick. Westbrook’s huge negative z-score in field goal percentage pretty much prices you into a punt FG% build, which limits your options heavily going forward as you really don’t want to force a rate stat punt after just one pick. When you compare Russ to other top 7 picks, they are all much less restrictive in team-building and don’t force you into a specific punt build right away. While Russ’ production is great, there’s a real danger in punt FG% not being open and your draft not coming together, and the risk of ending up with a non-coherent team is something that I look to avoid with a top-5 pick. I’m not saying Westbrook is a bad fantasy player, I would snap-pick him if he fell to me at pick 8, but I’ve always felt it better to go in another direction with a top 5 pick.

Andrew Wiggins - SG/SF, Min

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 90^th/115^th, 2016-2017: 84^th/117^th, 2017-2018: 170^th/194^th
Perception: Future superstar, top-50 fantasy upside, “Maple Jordan”
Reality: Year 4, he is who he is, terrible in fantasy, more Rudy Gay than Maple Jordan

There’s still a perception going around that Wiggins is a definite future superstar in the making, and he gets over-drafted every season in leagues and continues to disappoint as a fantasy player. It’s now year 4 of Wiggins’ career, and we should have a pretty good idea of what kind of player he is. Wiggins is a decent player but he hasn’t shown superstar potential just yet, and it feels like his pedigree is what is causing people to keep projecting enormous ceilings onto him. Wiggins definitely has strengths. He has been an incredible finisher at the rim his entire career, routinely finishing in the 70^th-80^th percentile in efficiency up close, and he’s also one of the best in the league at drawing contact, finishing in the top 10% in fouls drawn on his shots for the first 3 seasons of his career.

Unfortunately, the latter works against him in fantasy, as his below average mid-70s FT% combined with high frequency of attempts makes him a huge negative in that category. Another troubling trend is the decline in Wiggins’ attempts at the rim, which is down to 30% from the 40% rate he maintained early in his career, causing his FG% to take a hit as well, as he is not a good shooter. The shooting is a huge problem for Wiggins, as he has been below average across the board in all phases of the court beyond the short mid-range, and hasn’t shown much improvement in that regard at all since he came into the league. He also has huge deficiencies as a playmaker and rebounder, which shows in his fantasy profile. On top of all this, Wiggins has also been a disaster on defense in his young career, finishing with a huge negative in DBPM every season that essentially negates his offensive value and this shows up in fantasy as well with deficiencies in the defensive categories on top of his other issues. Essentially, Wiggins is a high volume punt percentages guy who doesn’t really give you much of anything outside of points, and that is usually not where you want to be with your mid round selections.

Harrison Barnes - SF/PF, Dal

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 144^th/119^th, 2016-2017: 81^st/76^th, 2017-2018: 98^th/101^st
Perception: Number 1 scoring option in Dallas, top-50 upside
Reality: Capped ceiling, barely a top-100 player

When Harrison Barnes was signed to Dallas, many expected him to take the scoring load and thought he could be a top-50 fantasy guy as the number one option. Even after a lukewarm season last year compared to expectations, Barnes was still being drafted in the 60s this year despite finishing far away from that projection in his first season as Dallas’ primary scoring threat. Homer Simpson once called “De-Fault” the two sweetest words in the English language, and Barnes is Dallas’ highest scorer for that reason, over 5000 year old Dirk Nowitzki and rookie Dennis Smith Jr. Barnes has been really bad this season, as Dallas has been an astounding -20.7 points per 100 possessions worse with “The Pencil” on the floor, and while there is a little bit of small sample size noise, it has to be noted that Barnes’ game has changed this season in a less than positive way.

As a role player on the Warriors a couple years ago, Barnes was a knockdown shooter from 3 while being assisted on over 70% of his total shots as well as almost every single one of his 3s. With a bigger role in Dallas, Barnes has had to create more of his own offense, and his elite 3-point shooting numbers from his days in spacing heaven look to be a thing of the past as he’s had to actually create shots off the bounce. Barnes ranks in the 90^th percentile in midrange shot attempts and has seen his attempted 3s dip considerably this season as he loses more confidence in that shot. This has resulted in a fantasy profile that is now deficient in 3s as well on top of anemic defensive numbers and low assists numbers that show Barnes hasn’t shown much growth as a playmaker either. Barnes is a top-100 option with capped upside, who looks to lose more of his scoring role once Dennis Smith Jr. gets more comfortable with the offense.

Reality > Perception – The Underrated Fantasy Assets

Gary Harris - SG/SF, DEN

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 98^th/89^th, 2016-2017: 65^th/55^th, 2017-2018: 43^rd/37^th
Perception: Role player, low-usage with a top-100 valuation
Reality: Only 23 years old, star potential, solid top-50 fantasy asset

People are starting to know Gary Harris, but there still isn’t much talk about the possibility of him becoming a future star. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say that Harris’ ceiling is Klay Thompson, and his fantasy ceiling might be even higher than the Warriors’ sniper due to his high steal numbers. The Nuggets have been 16.4 points per 100 possessions better with Harris on the floor, and the spacing he provides cannot be understated. Despite his own 3-pt shooting percentage being down this season, the Nuggets shoot 5.2% better from three as a team with a 3.9% bump in eFG%. Harris was a negative on defense last season but has made huge strides in that department this year, with Denver allowing 8.1 points per 100 possessions less with him on the floor this season.

For fantasy, Harris went into the season with sleeper chatter, but most didn’t expect the degree of breakout we’ve seen so far this season. He’s providing elite 3s and steals to go along with good percentages, a tick up in assists and a solid return on points as well. Nothing he’s done this season seems too unsustainable, and again, Harris is only 23 years old with significant room to grow as a player. He is a bona-fide top 50 asset now, and has the upside to be even better going forward. That screams star potential to me.

Robert Covington - SF/PF, PHI

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 59^th/63^rd, 2016-2017: 39^th/36^th, 2017-2018: 29^rd/20^th
Perception: Role player, top-75 player, streaky shooter with terrible FG%
Reality: Integral part of The Process, extremely underrated player, top-40 player

Robert Covington has had more exposure as an internet meme than as a very, very good basketball player, and that absolutely undersells his star turn from undrafted free agent brought in to help the tanking Sixers lose games to one of the absolute most valuable players in the league. While fantasy circles know all about “Lord Covington”, most still don’t appreciate just how good of a player he’s become.  The Sixers have been 16.1 points per 100 possessions better with RoCo on the floor than without, and his current Real Plus/Minus of 4.85 ranks 6^th behind Harden, LeBron, Curry, Giannis and Westbrook.  How’s that for value? Covington is the defensive fulcrum for a young team still finding itself with real expectations for the first time since The Process began, and his impact on that side of the ball has ranked in the 80-100^th percentile in almost every important metric. Joel Embiid may be “The Process”, but no one move encapsulates Sam Hinkie’s asset hoarding gambit than the discovery of Robert Covington.

For fantasy purposes, despite three excellent seasons in a row, Covington still was under-drafted this year, falling to an ADP in the late 60s despite posting a string of 3 excellent seasons in the top-70. People still throw up their arms at every Covington cold streak and complain about the low usage and FG%. The FG% issues are overblown, as Covington’s low volume doesn’t make him an automatic punt in the category, and he also goes late enough in drafts where you usually know your build, meaning if punt FG% is open and you moved in already, you’re getting a top-20 asset for your build in the mid rounds. Covington is an absolutely elite source of 3s and steals as well as providing a solid supplement of boards and out of position blocks, yet people have still not been able to wrap their heads around the idea of Lord Covington, top-30 player.

Al Horford - PF/C, BOS

8/9-cat ranks: 2015-2016: 26^th/16^th, 2016-2017: 38^th/34^th, 2017-2018: 31^st/30^th
Perception: Defensive anchor, top-50 player, overdrafted
Reality: Underrated offensively, top-30, improved considerably since moving to Boston

Al Horford has always gotten respect as a defensive anchor, and while he is the heart and soul of the Celtics’ elite defensive unit, it’s easy to overlook just how good he is, and how much better he’s become on the other side of the ball. Horford has only really added a 3-point shot to his arsenal for 3 years, and he’s already improved his mark from around league average in 2015-2016 to elite this season. Even prior to this season, the spacing from Horford’s added range as well as his much improved playmaking ability has led to huge jumps in team FG%, with Boston shooting 2.9% better with Horford on the floor last season and an exceptional 10.5% better this season. The Celtics have been 13.5 points per 100 possessions better with Horford on the court, and he is a big reason why the team is still thriving despite Gordon Hayward’s injury.

In Fantasy, Horford has managed to get back some of the efficiency he gave up with his newfound range. Horford was a top-20 option back when he was making only 0.1 threes a game, and while his defensive numbers have come down a bit since his peak, adding 1.5 threes to what was already an elite fantasy profile still makes him an extremely valuable player. Perception had Horford on a lot of do-not-draft lists early this season, and he has exceeded those expectations. Horford’s skillset is incredibly easy to fit into a build, as he has a non-damaging FT% stat for a big to go along with valuable out of position 3s, steals and assists that mix and match together allowing him to effectively work as an anchor for punt points and punt rebound teams.  He also fits into punt steals, punt blocks and punt FT% builds, albeit not as well as the prior two builds. Horford is a versatile Swiss army knife whose quiet consistency has been overlooked.

Putting It Together

There’s definitely tons more players on either side of the perception equation than the ones mentioned here, but the concept is definitely something to keep in mind as trade deadlines approach. “Name Value” is a phrase that gets thrown around a lot, and it boils down to a question of perception. It works both ways, both positively and negatively, and is important to keep in mind when evaluating and negotiating trades. Sometimes, a clearer look can truly lessen the clouding of our judgment.

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