RADIO
With Summer League winding down, it's time to start thinking about how we rank this year's rookie class for the purposes of our fantasy basketball dynasty leagues.
We've gotten to see most of these players on a basketball court and even though they haven't necessarily all played great because #ITISSUMMERLEAGUE, we do have enough information to start building some profiles of these players in our heads.
So, let's look at the top 30 rookies for dynasty leagues. Players are ranked and also placed in tiers. The farther down the list you go, the less confident I am in where these guys have been placed. Got it? Yeah! Let's get to rookie-ing.
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Dynasty Rookie Rankings
| Rank | Tier | Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Luka Doncic | G | Dallas Mavericks |
| 2 | 1 | Deandre Ayton | C | Phoenix Suns |
| 3 | 2 | Trae Young | G | Atlanta Hawks |
| 4 | 2 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | C | Memphis Grizzlies |
| 5 | 2 | Marvin Bagley III | F | Sacramento Kings |
| 6 | 3 | Michael Porter Jr. | F | Denver Nuggets |
| 7 | 3 | Mohamed Bamba | C | Orlando Magic |
| 8 | 3 | Wendell Carter Jr. | C | Chicago Bulls |
| 9 | 3 | Mikal Bridges | F | Phoenix Suns |
| 10 | 4 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 11 | 4 | Collin Sexton | G | Cleveland Cavaliers |
| 12 | 4 | Miles Bridges | F | Charlotte Hornets |
| 13 | 5 | Kevin Knox | F | New York Knicks |
| 14 | 5 | Kevin Huerter | G | Atlanta Hawks |
| 15 | 5 | Lonnie Walker IV | G | San Antonio Spurs |
| 16 | 5 | Zhaire Smith | G | Philadelphia 76ers |
| 17 | 5 | Robert Williams | C | Boston Celtics |
| 18 | 6 | Chandler Hutchison | F | Chicago Bulls |
| 19 | 6 | Elie Okobo | G | Phoenix Suns |
| 20 | 6 | Jerome Robinson | G | Los Angeles Clippers |
| 21 | 6 | Troy Brown | G | Washington Wizards |
| 22 | 6 | Mitchell Robinson | C | New York Knicks |
| 23 | 6 | Donte Divincenzo | G | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 24 | 6 | Josh Okogie | G | Minnesota Timberwolves |
| 25 | 6 | Grayson Allen | G | Utah Jazz |
| 26 | 7 | Khyri Thomas | G | Detroit Pistons |
| 27 | 7 | Aaron Holiday | G | Indiana Pacers |
| 28 | 7 | De'Anthony Melton | G | Houston Rockets |
| 29 | 7 | Jacob Evans | F | Golden State Warriors |
| 30 | 7 | Jalen Brunson | G | Dallas Mavericks |
Tier One: Potential Stars
I've got two players in my top tier, though only Luka Doncic is a no-brainer selection for me. The third pick in this year's draft, Doncic possesses the ability to be an elite passer and ball handler and has already garnered comparisons to a young James Harden. He'll need to continue to improve his shooting if he wants his career arc to expand from Oklahoma City James Harden to Houston James Harden, but he's going to be a very good NBA player for the Mavericks.
I'm not nearly as high on DeAndre Ayton as a lot of people are, but his ceiling is that of a star in the NBA, so he sits in the second spot in the rankings even if questions about his defense introduce some doubt about his ability to actually be a dominant NBA big. He'll put up good statistics for fantasy purposes right off the bat for the Suns this year as his offensive game doesn't seem to be a major question at this point.
Tier Two: High Level Starters
The order here isn't super important -- I have Trae Young pretty solidly in third, but Bagley and Jackson are pretty close to each other.
Young is a controversial player, a guy who looked like he had some Curry in him for a large chunk of the season at Oklahoma last year, but sputtered at times and looked streakier. I love his NBA potential, though, because he does a lot of things well that create successful NBA players: he can shoot and he can pass. For BBALLBREAKDOWN, Jackson Frank wrote about the Hawks new backcourt and points out the quality three point shooters around Young in Atlanta who should help open the floor up for him, allowing him to succeed. He isn't Stephen Curry, but he has a ton of potential to be something resembling Curry, though his stats at times in Summer League also suggest that he could be Salim Stoudamire Part Two.
Marvin Bagley III and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both versatile bigs. Jackson's performance thus far in Summer League has shown that he can step out and hit threes effectively, while Bagley's shooting has been hit or miss. Both guys should have productive NBA careers, but I have Jackson ranked slightly above Bagley.
Tier Three: P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L
The Nuggets got a steal with Michael Porter Jr., who was expected to be a top five pick before a back injury cost him most of his college season at Missouri. He brings more shot creating to Denver, has range, and can play both forward spots. Bamba has crazy wingspan and should be able to both protect the rim and hit jumpers. Wendell Carter Jr. is a guy who might need to be bumped up these rankings after his performance at Summer League. He can be a strong interior presence for the Bulls and can step out and hit the mid-range shot. Mikal Bridges is on the edge of this tier and the fourth tier, but his upside is that of one of the best three-and-D players in the league, which enough to get him this spot.
Tier Four: Good Players // Early Playing Time
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should see a ton of minutes for the Clippers this year. A good ball handler and passer, but I'd like to see more from him as a shooter before I trust him more than the guys ranked above. Collin Sexton is a guy who a lot of people -- me included -- aren't high on because his main skill set just seems to be can get the ball to the rim and not much else, but he should be pretty good at that skill. Miles Bridges can play the three or the four for Charlotte; I think he should be able to displace Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup during his tenure with the Hornets. Bridges should provide excellent defense.
Tier Five: Good Players // Slightly Less Early Playing Time
Kevin Knox has excited some people at Summer League with his ability to make exciting finishes at the rim, but his shot is still inconsistent and the Knicks might need to ease him in slowly. Kevin Huerter has good potential for the Hawks as a backcourt running mate to Trae Young, but he's missing Summer League after hand surgery, which means we don't get to see how that pairing will work. He'll probably struggle on the defensive end, but his three point shooting gives him a lot of upside. Lonnie Walker has a lot of big shoes to fill in San Antonio and will be asked to be the offensive head of the Walker/Dejounte Murray backcourt. He needs work, but he could be a very good shooter. Zhaire Smith has some work to do on the offensive end, but he'll bring solid defense off the bench of the 76ers. How crowded the 76ers rotation is brings down his value a bit. Robert Williams is next because of his upside, though he's an incredibly raw prospect who isn't great in the pick-and-roll and is bad from the free throw line.
Tier Six: Rotational Guys
Chandler Hutchison isn't going to be as good as teammate Wendell Carter Jr., but that doesn't mean he'll be a bad NBA player. The Boise State product is the kind of player who can do a little bit of everything on the basketball court. Elie Okobo has a good chance to end up as the starting point guard in Phoenix. Jerome Robinson will share a back court with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and won't be asked to do too much in comparison, but he was a 40.9 percent shooter from three in his last year at Boston College. Troy Brown actually looked better as a scorer in Summer League than he did for much of his time at Oregon, which is either an encouraging sign or just random noise. I'm picking the encouraging side. Mitchell Robinson averaged the most blocks per game in Summer League history, was extremely efficient at the basket, and also should be higher on this list, but I'm just worried about him being too limited offensively in the NBA. Donte DiVecenzo is someone I'm not high on, but he can bring the Bucks some much needed shooting. Josh Okogie has so much hustle and potential, but he'll also be a rookie playing for Tom Thibodeau so...we'll see how his playing time goes. Grayson Allen's statistical output at Duke regressed over his time there, which is a thing that really worries me. He has potential, but picking him is risky, which is why he's got the final spot in this tier.
Tier Seven: Useful Guys
Khyri Thomas has three-and-D upside, but a lot of his value depends on how fast he sees the court in Detroit. They've got some decent wings, but no one who screams I am irreplaceable. Aaron Holiday was impressive during Summer League, but we'll have to see if he can be a well rounded player in the NBA or if he'll be pigeon-holed as a bench shooter. De'Anthony Melton might deserve a higher spot after Trevor Ariza's departure from Houston. He's a great defender, but there are concerns about his shooting after a year off. If he can settle into the Houston offense, Melton is a guy capable of playing multiple positions. Jacob Evans is talented, but his playing time as a rookie is capped by being a Warrior. And finally, Jalen Brunson is in Dallas on a team that has been using its point guards a lot over the past few seasons. Brunson put up elite offensive numbers on a per possession basis in college and he should be able to share the backcourt with Dennis Smith Jr. at times. Maybe Dallas has too many ball handlers with Luka Doncic on board as well, but I think Brunson should be able to be effective offensively when playing off the ball as well.
