Fantasy Basketball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Onyeka Okongwu, Kyshawn George, Peyton Watson, More

January 20, 2026

Thunder Dan investigates the strong recent play of several fantasy basketball players to attempt to determine whether or not their production is sustainable going forward.

We've reached a pivotal point in the fantasy basketball season, where we must evaluate our rosters and ask some crucial questions.

How do we evaluate the players on our roster and their current performance? Is it reasonable to expect them to play better or worse going forward? It's a crucial time in the season as we have a limited amount of time to make trades and come up with a plan for how we can get these teams into the playoffs - and win it all once we get there.

It's rarely as simple as "set it and forget it" with rosters in fantasy basketball. Making the right moves, whether it's selling high or buying low on the right player - or just staying the course and riding an increase in production, can make all the difference down the stretch. In this article, I attempt to draw some conclusions about some NBA players who are returning value on their preseason ADP and have increased their fantasy value in recent weeks. Is their production sustainable, or should managers expect them to fall off and look to sell high?

2025-2026 9-CAT Breakouts

Here are the players that we will discuss; each of them fits the pattern of improved performance from their preseason rank in both their L30 and L14 production, and has their highest rank of the season in their current L14 sample.

A few players who just missed the cut here were Keyonte George, Payton Pritchard, and John Collins, among others.

The Yahoo preseason rank should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to guys like Jaden McDaniels, Kyshawn George, and Kon Knueppel, who were being drafted higher than that in a lot of competitive leagues. But I wanted to include it so we at least had a baseline for the expected production for each player this season.

All statistics are current through Monday, January 19.

Tyrese Maxey, PG - PHI

2025-2026 Stats: 47.5% FG%, 88% FT%, 3.6 3PM, 30.2 PTS, 4.4 REB, 6.7 AST, 2.1 STL, 1.0 BLK, 2.5 TO

I will be the first person to admit that I got plenty of stuff wrong about this season with my preseason ranks and content. But one thing I was right about was the emergence of Maxey, whom I was quite bullish on in my rankings (I had him sixth overall) compared to many of my peers.

A lot of the appeal to drafting Maxey in the back half of the first round for me had to do with the uncertainty of Joel Embiid and Paul George. The logic was simple. Both players came into the season with injury questions, and if one or both missed a lot of time, then Maxey would be forced into a massive role for this team.

But it turns out that Maxey doesn't need either guy to get hurt; he's just going to be awesome anyway. He's surged ahead of SGA in the rankings and is the more diverse statistical player since Maxey offers far more threes and has been the better defender in terms of blocks and steals.

Most Blocks Among Guards In The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season :

1. Derrick White — 61
2. Tyrese Maxey — 37
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — 32
4. Anthony Edwards — 28
4. Cade Cunningham — 28
6. Anthony Black — 27
7. Moses Moody — 26
8.… https://t.co/yF3MXbJYLk pic.twitter.com/wBDUfclPGw

— Stat Defender (@statdefender) January 18, 2026

The only thing that stands out as possibly not sustainable is the 1.0 blocks per game, as Maxey was at 0.5 and 0.4 blocks in the last two seasons. Those blocks are just icing on the cake, so even a dip there the rest of the way isn't something that should concern us.

The efficiency as a scorer on such massive volume (22 FGA/game) is a beautiful thing, and his 88% from the charity stripe is on a career high 6.2 attempts as well. There simply isn't a better guard to build around in 9-CAT right now, and Maxey has shown no signs of slowing down any time soon.

Verdict:

If you drafted Maxey in the late first or early second round, enjoy this elite production and look to build around him as the core piece of your team. Philadelphia looks like a playoff team, so there's no concern about an early shutdown like last season.

Trey Murphy III, SG/SF/PF - NOP

2025-2026 Stats: 49.7% FG%, 89.7% FT%, 3.1 3PM, 22.2 PTS, 6.1 REB, 3.6 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.9 TO

We saw Murphy go on a tear last season, where he was putting up top-10 value late in the year, but we told ourselves that was simply a product of him being the only good player on the floor for a Pelicans team that was rolling out a bunch of G-League level talent around him. This pushed his ADP back down into the third round this season, as we all expected his stats to normalize a bit with Zion Williamson back in the lineup and players like Jeremiah Fears and Jordan Poole taking away usage on offense.

The run Trey Murphy is much closer to the norm than an outlier. He continues to improve while remaining a dynamic, unique player.

This @The_BBall_Index chart indicates that, presenting elite cutting/movement scoring and three-point shot-making. pic.twitter.com/QQjynqUVlO

— Garrison Giddens (@ggidds2) January 15, 2026

But Murphy is delivering first-round value on the season and continues to get better as he's been a top-five player over the last two weeks. Williamson has been playing, too, so it's not a matter of Murphy soaking up the usage of other injured players this time around.

If we look at last year's numbers, there are a few things that stick out in comparison. He's taking nearly the same amount of shots (from both behind the arc and inside of it), but has improved his efficiency in a big way. He's made a moderate improvement in his 3P% at 38.7% but a massive improvement in his 2P% at 61.4% - a career high for him.

He's also averaging a career-high 1.5 steals per game, with his previous best being 1.1 in the 2022-2023 and 2024-2025 seasons.

What I love the most is that he's under two turnovers per game again this year (he finished at 1.9 last season, too) and is just one of three players in the entire NBA who is averaging less than two turnovers while also scoring 22 or more points per game (Norman Powell and Lauri Markkanen are the other two, if you were wondering).

Murphy's future in New Orleans is a bit murky right now. The franchise could attempt to trade him in the next few weeks and use the picks they'd receive to help reboot this roster. It makes some sense to deal him at his peak value, but I am not sure they're going to get an offer that's good enough, either, as Murphy is an emerging superstar who is likely the best player on the market.

Verdict:

Fantasy managers are in a tough spot because getting a big enough return on Murphy in a trade in fantasy basketball may be equally as difficult. Holding him is a little risky because he probably takes a hit in production if he's dealt to a contender, and he could also be a shutdown candidate for a bad Pelicans team down the stretch. But don't settle for anything less than top-end players in any deal that involves Murphy. He could be a league-winner, too, if he continues this solid production for the next two months.

Onyeka Okongwu, PF/C - ATL

2025-2026 Stats: 47.9% FG%, 77.8% FT%, 1.9 3PM, 16.1 PTS, 7.9 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.0 BLK, 1.9 TO

The season started slowly for Okongwu as he shifted to the bench with the arrival of Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason. The uncertainty around his minutes and role suppressed his ADP despite a career year of production in the 2024-2025 season. Okongwu finished 60th in 9-CAT value last season and played a career-high 28 minutes per game. The fear, however, was that he'd be limited to a 25-minute role backing up Porzingis and Jalen Johnson.

NBA centers with 100+ AST & 75+ 3PM this season:

Onyeka Okongwu

End of list. pic.twitter.com/yOv5C76qiK

— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) January 14, 2026

Well, the Porzingis experience in Atlanta is shaping up much like it did in Boston. Porzo has played just 17 games in Atlanta and is dealing with an Achilles issue that has kept him out of the lineup for two weeks now.

We rarely see a "sixth-year breakout," but we are finally getting a glimpse of what Okongwu can do with 32 minutes a night, and it's damn impressive. The addition of three-point shooting (career high 1.9 threes on 5.4 attempts) to his arsenal has been a boon to his value, even if it's come at the expense of his FG% (career-low 48%).

Verdict:

There is a temptation to sell high on Okongwu with Porzingis's potential return looming. However, I can't get behind it. Even when Porzingis comes back (if he comes back), he'll face some minutes restrictions and could be rested on some back-to-backs. The Hawks could choose to bring him off the bench in a 20-25 minute role to keep him healthy, and Okongwu has really earned the opportunity to start. His value could dip in the coming weeks, but he should still easily outperform our preseason expectations.

Jaden McDaniels, SF/PF - MIN

2025-2026 Stats: 51.5% FG%, 83.6% FT%, 1.4 3PM, 15.0 PTS, 4.5 REB, 2.8 AST, 1.1 STL,  1.0 BLK, 1.6 TO

Per my chart from the beginning of this article, McDaniels has seen one of the biggest jumps in production of anyone from his L30 to L14 sample. We've seen him go on some really good runs in the past, but as my good friend Adam King pointed out the other day, the difference with McDaniels this season is that we haven't had any real major lulls in production.

McDaniels is thriving alongside Anthony Edwards in Minnesota and doesn't need to score at a high rate to be a fantasy stud as he contributes reliably in threes, steals, blocks, and percentages. However, when his scoring does tick up a bit, he really jumps up in the rankings, as his 17.7 points per game over the last two weeks proves.

Jaden McDaniels blocks Stephon Castle pic.twitter.com/BupdgEulR0

— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) January 18, 2026

The fairly dependable scoring this season has made all the difference. McDaniels' 15.0 points per game is a 2.8-point increase over his output last year and a career-high. He's shooting 41.5% from behind the arc, which has allowed him to chip in 1.4 threes while still maintaining an excellent FG% at 51.5%. None of his other numbers are out of line with what he's done in similar minutes in the last three seasons, so this feels pretty sustainable to me. He's a good bet to finish this year ahead of last season, when he was 76th overall in 9-CAT.

Verdict:

McDaniels is the kind of player that I love on my fantasy teams. He doesn't hurt you anywhere and can chip in all the peripheral categories. These types of players are often undervalued by a lot of managers, so I'd do what I could to try to pry him away from another team if you don't already have him rostered.

Kyshawn George, SG/SF/PF - WAS

2025-2026 Stats: 46.4% FG%, 75.6% FT%. 2.2 3PM, 15.5 PTS, 5.6 REB, 4.9 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.9 BLK, 3.1 TO

I don't have an L7 sample on the chart up above, but if I did, you would see that George ranks 26th in 9-CAT over the last week. We are finally seeing the version of George lately that we got a glimpse of early this season when he came out of the gates like gangbusters, posting some huge numbers in October and early November.

George might be the most-improved player in the league, and if it's not him, then it's probably the "other George" - Keyonte. He was terribly inefficient as a shooter last season and was not used nearly as much to initiate the offense as he is this season. He was drafted by managers in the late rounds mainly because of his upside in defensive stats and the opportunity to play a bigger role on a rebuilding team this year.

That's cold Ky 🔑 pic.twitter.com/TTt8XZWar0

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) January 18, 2026

He's made significant strides as a three-point shooter (40%) and raised his FG% on two-pointers by 8% as well (up to 52%). His overall FG% is much easier to stomach at 46% than it was at 37% last year, and he's nearly doubled his assists from 2.5 to 4.9 per game.

He's shown that he can score at all three levels, and this recent surge of productivity has restored my optimism for his prospects the rest of the way. The arrival of Trae Young could be a complicating factor, but the conventional wisdom seems to be that Trae may not play at all this year for Washington, and it makes perfect sense for them to let him sit, get healthy, and let these younger players develop for next season.

Verdict:

George is a really talented second-year player who appears to be on an upward trajectory. There may be another dip in production coming at any point, but the general trend is still favorable, and his ability to help out in nearly every category is really appealing for 9-CAT formats. I think he's in a great position to be a really valuable fantasy asset down the stretch, and I'd value him in the top 60-70 range in any type of transactions.

Kon Knueppel, SG/SF - CHA

2025-2026 Stats: 48.8% FG%, 89.4% FT%, 3.4 3PM, 19.0 PTS, 5.3 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.2 BLK, 2.2 TO

Knueppel is a rookie, so we don't have any prior data to use for comparison. But comparing him to other rookies from this season and years prior, he stands out as one of the more efficient and reliable first-year players.

The former Duke standout is shooting a ridiculous 43.5% from behind the arc this year and is on pace to shatter Keegan Murray's rookie record of 206 made threes (Kon has 143 through just 42 games).

Kon Knueppel is been an elite off-ball shooter this year pic.twitter.com/kywB3JX0Cr

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) January 19, 2026

Knueppel is doing more than just shooting it efficiently. He's adding value as a rebounder and passer as well. What he doesn't do is get any steals or blocks, but not too many players of his archetype usually do.

The best part about Knueppel has been his durability and steady production. He's missed just one game this season and has not gone through any real slumps either. He stepped up early in the year when Charlotte was dealing with injuries to Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball, but his recent production has been quite good, even with all the Hornets' regulars in the lineup.

He's yet to hit the rookie wall...yet. But I honestly don't think he will. He's in a good situation for sustained production, playing solid minutes (32.3) alongside an elite ball-handler (Ball), which allows him to spot up for open threes.

Verdict:

I am a sucker for efficiency, especially for players who can shoot the long ball with great consistency (like Sam Merrill, Grayson Allen, Duncan Robinson types). Knueppel looks every bit the part of an elite shooter and is locked into a major role on this Hornets team. Even if they don't contend for the postseason, I think it's unlikely that Charlotte sits Knueppel down - especially if he's chasing some rookie records for three-point shooting. He's a bona fide rookie breakout; there's no faking what Knueppel has done over his first half-season as a pro.

Peyton Watson, SF/PF - DEN

2025-2026 Stats: 50.7% FG%, 73.0% FT%, 1.3 3PM, 13.9 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.0 STL, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 TO

Okay, if we are keeping score, it feels like it's been one breakout after another. Where are all the fakeouts??? Well, without totally spoiling it, I think we have a potential candidate here with Watson.

Watson is setting career highs across the board and blowing his numbers from his first three seasons in the league out of the water. Even as a rotational player last season, Watson still played just 24 minutes a game and finished with averages of 8.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists on 48% from the floor and 69% from the line.

Peyton Watson with the off-hand SHEESH pic.twitter.com/ToLfKipTIA

— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) January 19, 2026

Watson's appeal has always been connected to his ability to get defensive stats. He blocked 1.4 shots per game last season and added 0.7 steals. But this year, his offensive numbers have exploded as he's been thrust into a featured role in Denver due to injuries to...well, nearly everyone on the team other than Jamal Murray.

He's scoring with efficiency, shooting 39.7% from three while also connecting on 57.4% of his two-point shots. This is something that we have never really seen from him before, but he's only 23 years old and also hasn't had an extended opportunity to develop his game like this before, either.

I think this is a unique situation with Watson for a few reasons. It's hard to really discern what his production would look like this year if he had not been given a chance to play big minutes in a high usage role. It's quite possible that he has some regression coming on his shooting numbers and that his counting stats will dip a bit when Nikola Jokic returns, as well as others like Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson, who are direct competition for minutes and shots. However, when you watch him play, he certainly passes the eye test, and the team has played well with him on the floor.

Verdict:

I think we can safely call Watson a "breakout" in that he's taken a big step forward as a player in both real life and in fantasy basketball. However, at the same time, we can also probably call his current production a "fake out" as it's not very sustainable once Denver is totally healthy. It's a good time to try to sell high on Watson, but make sure you get good value in return because I think he's still likely a player who will remain rosterable in standard formats for the rest of the season.

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