RADIO
One month down, five months to go--unless you’re trapped in the Twilight Zone of small samples, luck (both good and bad) and inconsistency that accompany daily fantasy baseball. It's an exercise in futility, but I digress. In season-long traditional fantasy baseball formats, playing the game the way it’s supposed to be played (I sound like my dad right now), the marathon is just getting started.
For fantasy owners who got off to turbulent starts in April, don't worry because May is the time to grab the momentum and never look back. For those who are basking in the sunshine after a stellar opening month, don’t get complacent. One great month doesn’t guarantee anything in this game, especially this early in the year. Remain engaged, don’t get too attached to your current roster, and continue to make moves that will benefit your team even if they appear risky.
There isn’t any worse feeling than stumbling out of the gate, especially in fantasy sports. Significant change doesn’t happen overnight. Just like coastal erosion, transforming a fantasy roster is predicated on a series of moves, a process which continually improves the quality of your roster. Instead of aiming for one giant trade, look to make a series of small moves that will put you in position when it comes time to make the "big deal" down the road.
This week’s edition of the RotoBaller Stock Watch takes an in-depth look at a few relievers whose stock is on the rise, which fantasy owners should be targeting. These may seem like minor acquisitions right now, but they will not only improve your existing roster, but also provide fantasy owners with valuable trade chips down the line.
Cody Martin (ATL)
The massive void the Braves front office created when they shipped All-World stopper Craig Kimbrel to San Diego has been filled admirably by veteran Jason Grilli, there is no disputing that. However, the best reliever in Atlanta this season has been the 26-year old rookie, Martin, who has posted a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 21-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings of work this season.
While the New York Yankees dynamic tandem of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller lead all relievers in strikeouts with 26 and 23, respectively, Martin is right there on their heels with 21 punch-out’s of his own. With a fastball that averages less than 91 MPH, Martin isn’t cooking with gas to rack up the strikeouts, he’s using a three-pitch mix to keep hitters off-balance at the plate. According to PITCHf/x data, Martin is throwing his fastball nearly 74% of the time while also mixing in a slider (15%) and a curveball (11%) as well.
Most relievers only have two pitchers. There’s a reason they aren’t starting. The fact that Martin has three, including a pair of plus breaking balls gives him a chance to be special coming out of a bullpen. Opponents are batting less than .200 against both his curveball and slider so far this season, while the curve is generating a stellar 35% whiff rate. Martin’s arsenal compares favorably to the one utilized by Wade Davis in Kansas City, whose similar fastball, cutter and curveball repertoire has enabled him to evolve into arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball over the past two seasons.
Martin isn’t a sexy acquisition because he isn’t racking up saves, but that should only make it easier to acquire him as a throw-in piece in a larger trade. If Martin continues to pitch the way he did in April, it may not be long before he gets and opportunity to close in Atlanta.
Arquimedes Caminero (PIT)
If you don’t believe in the magic of Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage and special assistant Jim Benedict by now, you need to stop drinking Jobu’s rum or whatever voodoo rituals you participate in, and see the light. Caminero is just the latest example in a long line of Searage reclamation projects, which includes Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, and Vance Worley over the years just to name a few.
The issue with Caminero was never velocity. He’s always had the fastball velocity, it was just a matter of harnessing the control. I wrote about Caminero during spring training for The Dynasty Guru as a potential breakout reliever because it appeared as though the Pirates had solved his command issues. The results have been scary so far as he’s posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 14-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.1 innings this season.
With a fastball that averages over 99 MPH according to early PITCHf/x data, and a changeup and cutter that average between 90-92 MPH, Caminero is nearly unhittable when he’s locating his pitches. In case you are wondering, why does big-time velocity matter? Well the harder a pitcher throws, the less reaction time a hitter has. If you can locate a fastball coming in at triple digit heat, it’s extremely difficult to consistently square it up.
With all of the speculation in Pittsburgh about Mark Melancon’s steep velocity drop and ability to retain the job long-term, Caminero has the most logical arsenal to be able to step into the closing role. Managers will always gravitate towards pitchers with the ability to come in and get a big strikeout, like him. The problem is that he has thrown just 32 innings in his entire Major League career dating back to 2013. It might be better for the Pirates and fantasy owners to keep Caminero in low-leverage situations for now, but eventually his time will come if he keeps pitching this well.
Yimi Garcia (LAD)
The Dodgers new approach under Andrew Friedman may be most prominently highlighted in how they’ve constructed their bullpen, overhauling a veteran core group that was among the worst in the league a year ago, into an exciting young plethora of options. The most intriguing young live arm in the Los Angeles bullpen belongs to 24-year-old Yimi Garcia.
After missing most of last season due to injuries, Garcia has allowed just one run on four hits while striking out 21 (tied for third most among relief pitchers with Atlanta’s Cody Martin) and issuing just four walks. Primarily a fastball and slider guy, Garcia is missing plenty of bats right now and it’s notable that his average fastball velocity has actually gone up, from 93 MPH to nearly 95 MPH, between April and May.
Kenley Jansen will take over the closer role once he returns later this month, but that should only make it easier to acquire Garcia since he has little chance of racking up saves. Even if you’re not looking to speculate on saves, Garcia is a worthwhile pickup because he’s going to help your rate stats and accrue a boatload of strikeouts in the process.
A.J. Ramos (MIA)
The obvious choice if you’re looking to hedge against the struggling Steve Cishek, the 28-year-old Ramos has opened up the 2015 campaign by posting a 1.23 ERA with 20 strikeouts and just five walks in 14.2 innings. In 144 innings since 2013, Ramos has logged a miniscule 2.63 ERA, coming into this season and has picked up right where he left off. His fastball isn’t overpowering, but he uses an effective off-speed mix highlighted by a slider (20% whiff rate) and changeup (astonishing 42% whiff rate), which enable him to rack up the strikeouts.
If Cishek’s struggles continue, the Marlins may have no choice but to turn to Ramos. If you’re a fantasy owner who likes to speculate on saves, Ramos is the clear cut candidate to target.
Zach McAllister (CLE)
Fantasy expectations for McAllister were raised significantly after his stellar spring training audition in the Cleveland rotation in which he posted 28 strikeouts in 25 innings. Sadly, they vanished in the blink of an eye. After getting crushed by the Detroit Tigers in his debut on April 10th, the Indians banished him to the pen in favor of Danny Salazar.
The 27-year-old has been lights-out since taking up permanent residence in the Indians' bullpen. He’s increased his fastball usage significantly since moving to relief, dialing up either the four-seam or cutter over 80 percent of the time, which is fine when you’re averaging nearly 96 MPH on your heater in short stints. He still possesses the curveball, slider and changeup, but he doesn’t have to rely on them as often, which is a bonus.
Sometimes we need to change our expectations on a pitcher. Maybe it was foolish to suggest that McAllister’s increased fastball velocity would hold up as a starter and that his weaker secondary stuff wouldn’t be an issue as a result, but the Indians were willing to give it a shot.
If we lower our expectations and ask McAllister to come out of the bullpen and work one or two low-leverage innings, he becomes the Mariano Rivera of middle relief and the Indians are a better team for realizing it, instead of trying to wedge him back into the rotation. McAllister will cost you nothing to acquire in any league and since his return to relief, he’s allowed just three runs in 14 innings while striking out a batter per inning. If he’s allowed to go more than one inning consistently, he could rack up some monster inning and strikeout totals for a reliever. It’s hard to overlook the potential.
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