13 Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts

March 10, 2025

Michael Florio's 2025 fantasy baseball starting pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

Say the word breakout and fantasy players' ears everywhere perk up. Everyone is in chase of a player that will greatly outlive the price you pay to get them. That to me is the biggest difference between a sleeper and a breakout. A sleeper may outlive their ADP by a couple of rounds, but a breakout will take a huge jump and go much earlier in drafts next year. 

A breakout does not necessarily have to be a late-round pick either. Last year I wrote this article and it included names such as Tarik Skubal, Grayson Rodriguez, Joe Ryan, Michael King, Cristopher Sanchez, and even a couple of arms I am doubling down on this year. While you had to pay up for Skubal last year, he certainly broke out as he won the American League Cy Young and is now a top-2 pitcher off the board. 

These pitchers all have varying ADPs and are available throughout the draft. They all bring different breakout capabilities, but all can take a big jump if things break right this season. 

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Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

If you have followed me long enough, you know Blake Snell has a special place in my heart. I pounded the table for him before his breakout 2018 season and ended up winning an FSWA award because of it. I have never stopped believing in Snell and he has added another Cy Young to his mantle while going on a run as the best pitcher in baseball numerous times.

Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.

Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025

I know, many of you are thinking how is a borderline SP1 a breakout candidate. Well, that ADP is factoring in his risks, which are slow starts and hurting your ratios. Still, when he is on, he will provide absolutely elite strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

Plus, now he is on the best team in baseball, so could post a career-high in wins. Plus, we have seen the Dodgers and their very smart staff help elevate many pitchers before. Last year he had a career-low xERA (2.57) with a career-high strikeout rate (35 percent).

His 1.05 WHIP was the second-best of his career. It is possible Snell could take a jump beyond the usual dominant Snell we get for stretches at a time. There is an argument to be made that he is coming at a discount. 

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

I am a sucker for a top international pitching prospect. Last year I drafted Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga and both were great for my fantasy teams while they were on the field. This year it is Roki Sasaki that I will be taking shots on. He dominated in his four years in Japan, never posting an ERA above 2.35, while averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.

He touches triple digits with his fastball, has one of the best splitters in the world, and has a plus slider and a curveball. Oh, and he pitches for the Dodgers who are likely going to win the most games in the MLB and have helped elevate pitchers for years now.

The only concern I have is how many innings he will throw. Still, the upside is immense. 

Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves 

Spencer Schwellenbach is perhaps my favorite pitching target this season. And I say that as a Mets fan who had to watch him dominate my favorite team every time he faced them. Coming into last year, it wasn't clear if Schwellenbach would even pitch in the majors, yet he finished the season with a 3.35 ERA, 3.44 xERA, and a 1.04 WHIP.

I especially like that he racks up strikeouts at an above-average rate while limiting walks, which is evident by his 20.8 percent K-BB rate. He also allowed a barrel rate of just 4.7 percent. Limiting walks and hard contact, while missing bats, is an easy recipe for success. 

Spencer Schwellenbach debuted today with a different pitch mix:

23 pitches
2 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 2 K
30 CSW%

I’m fine if I’m the one who’s gonna say it, he will be a top 3-5 Cy Young candidate in 2025. pic.twitter.com/4Qy6JYMKvr

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 25, 2025

Plus, there is plenty of reason to believe the 24-year-old is just getting better as he was a shortstop primarily in college and only starting pitching full-time in 2023. That is a very Jacob deGrom-like profile that caught my attention immediately.

He should be in a position to pick up wins on a strong Braves team too. I love Schwellenbach as an SP2, or even an SP3 on pitching heavy builds. 

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros 

Last season, Hunter Brown had the lowest rate of hard contact allowed of all starters who threw at least 50 innings, at 22 percent. That was just ahead of Paul Skenes, Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal. He also generated groundballs 49 percent of the time.

Soft groundballs tend to lead to a lot of outs and double plays. As if that is not enough to like, Brown has struck out over a quarter of the batters he has faced in all three of his MLB seasons. We saw the start of a breakout in the second half last season when he posted a 2.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. A true breakout could be on tap this season.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

From one Hunter to another! I picked Greene as a breakout pick last year, and he was very good, pitching to a 2.75 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 1.02 WHIP, while striking out 27 percent of the batters he faced. But I believe he can still reach another level! What jumped out to me last season was he finally started limiting hard contact and not just relying on missing bats.

He posted a 32 percent hard-hit rate and a five percent barrel rate, both of which were by far the best of his career. As was his 43 percent ground-ball rate. Early in his career, Greene could miss bats, but when batters made contact, they typically did a lot of damage. That was not the case last year. 

Plus, in the second half he posted a 1.13 ERA with a 0.75 WHIP, while not losing any strikeouts. If he can continue to build off what he did last year, just in more innings, we could be talking about Greene as an SP1 by the year's end. 

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

I originally was going to leave Kodai Senga off this list, but then I saw his ADP. There is no way he should be going outside the top 40 starting pitchers. Injuries limited him to just one (dominant) start in the regular season last year, which may lead to people forgetting how good he was in 2023.

That year, Senga pitched to a 2.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, striking out 29 percent of the batters he faced and finishing with an 18 percent K-BB rate. In the second half of that season he posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

His ghost fork pitch is one of the best putaway pitches in baseball and he generates groundballs at a high rate. He has the capability of being a high-end SP2 in fantasy baseball, if not better. And if you are still a little worried, you already are getting him at a discount due to the injury factor. 

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks 

Brandon Pfaadt was included in last year's version of this article and while he certainly did not break out, he showed positive signs that one could be coming. What immediately jumps out to me is he increased his strikeout rate, while limiting walks, finishing with an 18.8 percent K-BB rate.

There were 30 starters last year to go at least 50 innings and post a K-BB rate that high or better. Of those 30, only two had a higher BABIP than Pfaadt's .315 (highest was .318). That shows that luck was not on his side. 

There is plenty to like as well, such as all of the ERA indicators being around a run less than his actual ERA. He also reduced his barrel and hard-hit rate from the previous year, while generating a lot more groundballs. If he has a little better BABIP and strand rate luck, the breakout could be in store.

Pfaadt came up with hype after having success in the minors. The hype has started to dwindle, which is exactly when you should buy in. 

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Last season, Bryan Woo posted a 2.89 ERA and a 2.72 xERA while walking less than three percent of the batters he faced. That led to him finishing with a 0.90 WHIP. He allowed a barrel less than five percent of the time.

Woo limits hard contact, doesn't allow free passes, generates a ton of ground balls, and keeps the ball in the park. That is exactly what you have to do as a pitcher who does not miss a ton of bats.

The lack of strikeouts may lead to him falling in drafts a bit, but he is an excellent source of ratios, especially WHIP, which can be harder to find as the draft goes on. He is especially valuable in points leagues, as he often goes six-plus innings in a start. 

Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves

I have been a sucker for Reynaldo Lopez since his days with the White Sox. Last year in 25 starts he pitched to a 1.99 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. He posted a 19.5 percent K-BB rate, the second-best of his career.

He was elite in the second half, though, pitching to a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, with a 28.7 percent K-BB rate, which was the third-best among all starters. The Braves have shown a knack for just transforming pitchers. I am not going to doubt them here, especially since he is barely being drafted as a top-50 starting pitcher. 

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels 

I have been chasing the Yusei Kikuchi breakout for a while now. And just when I think I am out, he pulls me back in! Last season he finished with a 4.05 ERA, but all of the indicators were 3.70 or lower.

He posted the second-highest BABIP (.309) of his career, which shows he had some bad luck. He posted a career-high strikeout rate (28 percent), and a career-low walk rate (six percent). That led to a 22 percent K-BB rate, the 13th-best among all starting pitchers.

That climbed to 24.8 percent in the second half, as the WHIP dropped to 1.05 and the ERA to 3.49. Those are gains that are worth chasing in fantasy, even if he has disappointed in the past. 

Clay Holmes, New York Mets

Call me a homer if you want, but I am willing to bet on Mets starting pitchers this season. Last year, the Mets were able to transform Sean Manaea into a fantasy SP2, while making Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson very fantasy-relevant arms.

David Stearns and company have been helping elevate pitchers for years now, going back to his Milwaukee days. They see something in Clay Holmes as they paid him starter money very early into free agency. 

Clay Holmes pitch usage this spring:

Sinker - 26
Sweeper - 15
Slider - 13
4-seam - 11 (new)
Kick change - 8 (new)
Cutter - 3 (new)

6 IP / 0 ER / 5 K

— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) February 27, 2025

Holmes may have a reputation as an up-and-down closer, but that is why he is basically free in a lot of drafts. But we know he has the stuff to miss bats and pitch at a high level in the bigs. He has looked good in spring training and is throwing three new pitches, which is nothing new to pitchers under Stearns.

This is more about taking a cheap gamble on a team that turns failed pitchers around before. You can also take a cheap pick on Frankie Montas, who brings even more upside, but you will have to wait for him to get healthy first. Lastly, Max Kranick is a name to add to your watch list and for you NL-only players to target.

David Festa, Minnesota Twins

David Festa debuted last year to solid results for his first taste as a big leaguer. However, we have seen him consistently post high strikeout and groundball numbers in the minor leagues.

That is exactly the type of pitcher I like in fantasy because it is much tougher to string hits together and avoid double plays, as long as the pitcher can keep the ball in the park. Additionally, Festa just got better as the year went on. In the second half, he posted a 3.81 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 1and .25 WHIP, with a 20.4 percent K-BB rate.

Festa is a young pitcher who had success in the minors and got better throughout his first year in the majors. He misses bats and can generate a ton of groundballs. And the best part? You can get this young upside arm outside the top 100 starting pitchers in ADP. 

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

This is a bit of a deep cut for me, but Andre Pallante stood out while researching this article. Last season Pallante allowed barrels at just 2.8 percent of the time, the lowest amongst all starting pitchers.

Nobody else generated a rate below four percent. He limited hard contact with the best of them as well. His 61 percent ground-ball rate was also the best in the bigs. His lack of strikeouts will likely make many in Roto leagues overlook him.

I still like him as a late-round dart throw, but he especially shines in points leagues. He has shown he can go deep into games and in these leagues, you are less concerned with strikeouts and more so want a pitcher who can eat innings, as those points add up quickly. Pallante has shown the capability to do so.

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