4 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Byron Buxton, AJ Smith-Shawver, Ozzie Albies, Jackson Jobe

May 14, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 7 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 7 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at Byron Buxton, AJ Smith-Shawver, Ozzie Albies, and Jackson Jobe.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.

This week will be an abbreviated version of the series, but each of these players could have a big impact on fantasy managers' futures. Let's dig in to learn more and decide if their short-term trends will continue!

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 11, 2025.

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (OF)

.271/.314/.535 Slash Line, 9 HRs, 25 RBI, 8 SBs

Byron Buxton has been a frustrating fantasy player throughout his career. He has showcased a strong power-speed skill set, but has also struggled with batting average and injuries. He has looked good in 2025 with a .271/.314/.535 slash line, nine home runs, and eight stolen bases. Should fantasy managers buy into it?

Three straight games with a HR for Byron Buxton! 💥 pic.twitter.com/pC50tcU0RX

— MLB (@MLB) May 8, 2025

Buxton’s injury issues are the least controllable aspect of his game. He hasn’t reached 400 plate appearances since 2017 and is already roughly 40% of the way there. How fantasy managers assess this really comes down to their risk tolerance, as this could change at any time.

Digging into the numbers, Buxton’s approach at the plate is the same as it has been. He walks very little and strikes out a ton, but his batted-ball profile is stellar. This has allowed him to maximize his contact output with a .349 BABIP. I would expect his batting average to regress closer to his .306 career average, given there haven’t been significant changes in his batted-ball profile.

It is difficult to draw a definitive conclusion about Buxton. He is performing well now, but he has struggled in the past with a similar approach. Factor in injury risk, and Buxton is truly a mixed bag.

At this point, fantasy managers who already roster him may as well ride out his production for however long it lasts. He has finished seasons with this level of production before, so hopefully he can keep things going.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 11, 2025.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

2-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 24.6% Strikeout Rate, 32 2/3 IP

AJ Smith-Shawver has quietly emerged as a viable fantasy option while pitching in the Braves' rotation. The 22-year-old has a 2-2 record with a 2.76 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 24.6% strikeout rate in six starts and 32 2/3 IP. Should fantasy managers expect his success to continue?

While things have panned out for him, there are a few indications that he may not continue to get the same quality of results. First, he has had some walk issues. He has a career 10.7% walk rate and has been in line with that this season at 10.9%. This hasn't hurt him yet, but it isn't a great recipe for success.

Smith-Shawver's batted-ball profile also leaves room for improvement. He has allowed a lot of hard contact with a 16.5-degree launch angle. This quality of contact is reflected in his .302 BABIP, and both his batted-ball profile and walk issues show in his inflated 1.35 WHIP. His 5.12 xERA and 4.06 SIERA support the discrepancy between his peripherals and his skill set.

On the positive side, his strikeout numbers do seem to be supported. Overall, Smith-Shawver has generated an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. This has mostly come from his split-finger fastball, which has induced a ridiculous 24% swinging-strike rate. He has utilized this pitch as his main secondary offering, with 34.7% usage.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Filthy 86mph Splitter...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/2MIWI2cVcB

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2025

Overall, Smith-Shawver's under-the-hood metrics do not support a 2.76 ERA. However, they do support a decent strikeout floor. I think Smith-Shawver could be viewed as a higher-end streamer at this point and would start him in favorable or middling matchups. His next scheduled start is against the Nationals, so he could continue to be a Fantasy Riser.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 11, 2025.

Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves, (2B)

.218/.276/.340 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 15 RBI, 5 SBs

Ozzie Albies has been a high-floor fantasy option for power and speed throughout his career. He hasn’t lived up to expectations in 2025, slashing .218/.276/.340 with five HRs, 15 RBI, and five SBs in 170 plate appearances. How worried should fantasy managers be?

Albies has done a good job limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, building a solid foundation for his approach. The big issue is the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 12th and fourth percentiles of baseball, respectively.

He has hit the ball in the air more than ever with a career-high 21.6-degree launch angle, which has compounded his issues. His 14.1% infield fly-ball rate is higher than his career 8.9% mark, his 7.8% HR/FB rate is lower than his 11.5% mark, and his .232 BABIP is a career low and much lower than his .290 career mark.

Typically, I would be inclined to give the benefit of the doubt and say that Albies' quality of contact may regress more towards his career averages, which would make him a buy-low candidate. This may still be the case, but he has done such a poor job that I would want to see things start to get better before believing it.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 11, 2025.

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

2-0, 4.88 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 16.4% Strikeout Rate, 27 2/3 IP

Jackson Jobe came into the season as one of baseball’s most exciting prospects and potential Fantasy Risers. Unfortunately, he has actually been somewhat of a disappointment with a 4.88 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 16.4% strikeout rate. Can he turn things around?

Wednesday night saw two of the top young pitching prospects face off in Jackson Jobe and Chase Dollander.@adnansvirk and @CY24_7 look back at when Justin Verlander and Félix Hernández faced off in 2006 and when Clayton Kershaw faced off against Max Scherzer in 2008. pic.twitter.com/xwBUddTSN9

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 11, 2025

Jobe hasn’t set himself up for success due to poor control. Walks were an issue for him at times in the minors and have persisted this season with a 12.3% walk rate.

This has bled into his lack of strikeouts as well. Jobe has thrown less than half his pitches in the strike zone, leading to few chases from hitters. His 8.3% swinging-strike rate is lackluster despite getting tons of spin on his pitches.

These issues have rendered Jobe ineffective and have limited his workload. Even if the Tigers plan to limit his innings, he hasn’t given them a reason to let him pitch more than five innings, except for one of his six starts.

Fantasy managers should not take too much away long-term from six starts of a top prospect who is 22 years old. However, he simply has not converted his skills into results so far this season. He is worth holding onto to see if he can turn things around, but fantasy managers may not have that luxury depending on how they’ve done early on.

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