X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitters Advanced Statistics: Keys to Analyzing Fantasy Trends

Advanced statistics are not new. Though as recently as 10 years ago they were the subject of much derision among sportswriters and broadcasters, all but the most hidebound and dusty now acknowledge their existence, with most embracing them at least to some extent. Even Hawk Harrelson-- he of "The Will to Win"-- accepts and uses On-Base Percentage during ChiSox broadcasts. At this stage, of course, it seems kind of ridiculous that On-Base Percentage or Slugging Percentage are considered advanced stats: they are stats kept in many of our fantasy baseball leagues, and nearly every baseball fan is conversant with them.

But that's exactly the point. When these stats were new, the few people who could understand them had a decided edge in analysis. But now that they are common, they aren't as good at getting a leg up on the competition. So we're going to look at some other stats-- some relatively common, some more on the fringe (at least depending on whom you're talking to)-- that can help you get the inside edge in your fantasy baseball league this year.

 

Advanced Stats for Fantasy Baseball

A quick note before we proceed: these are all projection stats. Baseball is a strange and unpredictable game, and wonderful because of that. Odd things can happen, distanced from any analysis. But these advanced stats should give you a good idea of how things should go in the future.

 

BABIP

This is a stat that is on the verge of mainstream acceptance, but until it gets there, it is one of the key indicators you can use to get the edge on other people in your league.  It stands for "batting average on balls in play," and is pronounced "BAH-bip". What it measures is a batter's average on balls that can potentially make an out. This excludes walks, home runs, and strikeouts-- the three outcomes that the defense has nothing to do with. While players generally have a 30% average to get a hit on balls in play, the numbers can swing wildly for a week, a month or even a season, and also vary based on hitter's skills.

And you know this, instinctively. How many times have you heard an announcer say "Hit well, but bad luck! Right to a fielder!" All the time, right? Because here is the thing: most hitters cannot control exactly where the ball goes, and no one can do it consistently. What they can do is control how hard they hit the ball, and how frequently they make solid contact (more on this later).

We see BAPIP flukes all the time, and you can use this to your advantage. Say you've drafted 2015 golden boy Josh Donaldson, who should be about a .265 hitter. After three weeks, he's hitting .387, and ESPN is going nuts about how he's taking his game to a new level. Now, he's a great player, but you look, and see his BABIP is well over .400.  You can expect that BA to drop significantly as the BABIP normalizes closer to Donaldson's historical norm of .290. But your buddy doesn't know that, and so Donaldson's trade value is worth way more than it should be. You strike fast, and are able to turn a hot start into Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Rendon, who maybe struggled out of the gate. You'll smile smugly when Donaldson bats .220 in May.

 

Line-Drive / Ground Ball / Fly Ball Percentage

Pretty straightforward. What percentage of a batter's balls in play are line-drives, fly balls, or ground balls? This is usually a stat that describes why a player is good, rather than predicting that he will be good. Hitting it in the air tends to produce the most outs, but also home runs for the powerful guys. Ground balls cause a slightly lower % of outs than fly balls, on average (speedy guys like Dee Gordon are an exception), and line-drive hitters tend to have the most fluctuation due to luck, but will usually have the highest batting averages.

While this isn't a stat generally used for predictive purposes, you can use it if you see what appears to be a flukish start for a player on your squad or on someone else's.  Imagine a buddy has Joey Votto, and after a month he has ten home runs. You see that Votto's FB% is at a low 28%, as opposed to the 40% level of most power hitters. One of your league mates might assume Votto has his power stroke back, but it is more likely he had some great luck in seeing a huge percentage of those fly balls leave the park.

Votto will soon regress to his career norm HR/FB rate, and with the low number of fly balls he hits in the first place, the power that came back in a flash will fade away just as quickly. By paying attention to career norms and small sample sizes, you have more information with which to analyze a players potential future performance. If your friend isn't looking closely at the numbers, he might be willing to make a trade and overpay for Votto.

 

UBR

This is a fun one, especially for people who say you can't quantify things like smart base-running. Well, this attempts to do just that.  Different places have different methods of calculating it, but UBR seems to me to be the most comprehensive. It is important to note that it doesn't account for base-stealing, which is separate category. It takes into account things like properly tagging up, advancing from second to third on a grounder to short, taking an extra base (or getting caught while trying to do so).  It is properly complicated-- I'm certainly glad someone else charts this and does the math-- but it does give you an insight into a player's game, especially if he has been traded or his team has been reshaped around him.

A high UBR shows you that the player does an excellent and often team-independent job of getting in position to score.  So if your player has scored a lot of runs, but you are worried how a trade might affect that, take a look at UBR. Obviously, runs scored are always team-dependent, but getting yourself in position to score is often a matter of individual skill. A good UBR player won't drop off the map because he has a lesser batter hitting behind him, whereas a bad one will struggle more.

 

O-Swing, Z-Swing & Others

While these might sound like the names of mediocre rappers performing "hip" life lessons at a middle-school symposium on strangers, they are actually fascinating ways to measure a batter's plate discipline.

O-Swing is the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone a batter swings at; z-swing the percentage inside the zone.  You also have O- and Z-contact, as well as a few others to help you determine how frequently a hitter makes contact on pitches outside and inside the zone.  You want lower in the O and higher in the Z in terms of swinging.  There are exceptions, like Vlad Guerrero swinging at an insane 40% of pitches out of the zone in his career-- but Vlad was insanely great, and he connected on nearly 70% of those. Vlad is the exception.

This is a great way to track someone's progress as a hitter, to see if he is maturing, or if he is always going to be swinging at everything. When analyzing a player's career, see if he is improving in terms of plate discipline. Interestingly, some guys like Adam Dunn have great plate discipline (which is why he walks a ton) and huge strikeouts for the same reason: he never  swings at pitches outside of the zone, and too often keeps his bat on his shoulder on pitches that are close, putting him in the hole on corner pitches. Use these stats to judge a player's mental development before drafting. Also, players with higher Z-contact rates are less prone to wild batting average swings. They more frequently make contact with quality pitches to hit, giving them a better chance to maintain a solid average.

 

So, that's just a few of many amazing new hitting stats that not only have reflective, but also predictive possibilities. Even if your league still holds batting average sacred and feels that runs scored is the one true measurement of a hitter, you can see the factors that go into these stats, and you can use that knowledge to take hold of your league. Doing so will prove that you have The Will To Win.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF