May 16, 2017

The top FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 5/16/17 by Kevin Luchansky. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel.

After yesterday's mess of pitching options, it's a relief to have some real studs on the mound on this 15 game Tuesday. Two games are taking place today in the late afternoon, so FanDuel has a few options for us today: Early Only (2 games), All Day (15) and Main (13), which begins at the usual 7:05 EDT.

Before we jump into stacks, pitchers and position players, let's see what we can gather from the early morning Vegas lines and odds. The teams with the highest projected run totals are as follows, and could certainly make for stack targets (particularly in cash games): Diamondbacks (5.1), Rangers (5.1), Yankees (4.9), Twins (4.9) and the Astros (4.9). Fairly significant line movement in a positive direction for both the Twins and Astros, who opened at 4.6 and have both climbed to 4.9. As for our heaviest favorites, which can be telling as to which cash game pitchers to target and often times which offenses to fade, we have the Rangers (-198), the Cubs (-189), the Angles (-180), and the Astros (-174).

Mid-morning update: the Reds at Cubs have a monstrous opening over/under of 11.5 runs. The wind is blowing out tonight at Wrigley! The Cubs now have the highest implied run total at 6.7 runs! That is the highest non-Coors figure I've seen this season by a good amount.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/16/17. They'll range from value plays, to elite and everything in between. If you have any questions, hit me on Twitter at @kpLUCH. Let's get to it.

Offensive Stacks

New York Yankees against Jason Hammel 

Vegas has this game pegged for 9+ runs with an emphasis on the Yankees side as their projection is just a fraction under 5 - and one of the top five of the night. It's no secret the Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball and the matchup they have tonight is one to like. Over his past three starts, Hammel has allowed an opponent wOBA of .380 and an ISO of .250. Those are very poor numbers for Kansas City and very great numbers for Yankee stack backers this evening. In that same stretch of time, Hammel has also allowed a 39% hard hit rate, a flyball rate of 43% and average batted ball distance of a whopping 245 feet. There's a lot of pop in this Bronx Bomber lineup and I'm concentrating most on those who can clear the fence for me tonight, namely Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Chris Carter and Starlin Castro.

Chicago Cubs versus Bronson Arroyo

The Reds pitching staff is a mess, and even so, Bronson Arroyo still has no business pitching at this level anymore. Those 2004 days with the Red Sox feel like three decades ago. Luckily for you, me and the DFS clique, Arroyo still pitching at the major league level means we can attack him with as many opposing hitters as possible. The Cubs make for an excellent stack tonight, not only because of the matchup against lowly Arroyo, but also the fact that this is a hitter's park - especially when the wind is blowing out - and the Cubs, thanks to a few slumps, are priced as values. My favorite Cubbies to stack tonight are Miguel Montero, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo.

Also consider: Texas Rangers versus Jerad Eickhoff

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Yu Darvish - SP, vs PHI ($10,600)

The Rangers are the heaviest favorites of the day and it has a lot to do with Yu. Despite a brutal start in his last game, he has been pretty dominant and consistent this season. In that rough outing against the Padres - a game in which he started with a negative 15 score - he still managed to climb up to 31 points, just missing salary based expectations. This is a good matchup for Yu, though, as he should get ample run support, he faces a team that is projected for just 3.5 runs (compared to the Rangers 5.1) and the projected Phillies lineup strikes out 25% of the time against right-handers this season. That combined with his amazing 11.09 K/9 give him good strikeout upside, and his Statcast data from his past three starts are positive, revealing they he may have been the victim of some bad batted ball luck in his most recent start. In that three-start stretch he's allowed a batted ball distance of just 197 feet, which is more impressive when you consider he only induced ground balls at a 36% clip.

Also Consider: Dallas Keuchel - SP, at MIA ($10,900)

Stephen Strasburg - SP, at PIT ($10,400)

After a shaky outing in two of his past three, the time is now to jump on Strasburg in tournament formats (at this price, you need to find some high upside punts or pair him with a double stack - I suggest the latter, but there's a few ways to skin this cat). Shaky outings - while they do scare off potential owners, giving us exposure with higher leverae - alone don't warrant consideration, but the fact that Strasburg has that "going for him" combined with excellent strikeout upside in a pitcher's park against a pretty weak offense makes for an excellent GPP concoction. For the year, Strasburg boasts excellent K/9 rates (10.7) and he's done a fine job keeping the ball in the yard, too (0.9 HR/9).

Also Consider: Danny Salazar - SP, vs TBR ($9,500) - GPP only

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Austin Barnes - C, at SFG ($2,300)

Barnes has been one of my favorite punt cash game plays and upside tournament plays over the last few weeks and I'm going back to the well tonight in what is a pretty optimal spot for Austin. He's near the minimum price which is incredible considering his splits and the matchup. For the season, he owns a .378 wOBA and .250 ISO split against southpaws, and the southpaw he faces tonight - Ty Blach - has surrendered over a .400 wOBA over the past 15 days.

Also Consider: Gary Sanchez - C, at KC ($3,400)

Freddie Freeman - 1B, at TOR ($4,400)

This man is on fire and doing oh so many impressive things in the year 2017. He's become a must play in cash games, especially when facing a right-handed pitcher in a solid hitters park, as is the case tonight. His splits against right-handed pitching are herculean, as he's posted a .439 wOBA and a .338 ISO.

Also Consider: Logan Morrison - 1B, at CLE ($3,500) - GPP pivot

Rounded Odor - 2B, vs PHI ($2,800)

I love Odor's value today and despite not having the most memorable start to the season, it's not like he hasn't produced at a solid level. The price is way too low today. He's got a good wOBA split (.320) and a nice ISO split (.230), good lineup order value smack dab in the middle for the team projected for the most runs and happens to be competing tonight in a great hitters park. Oh, and Jerad Eickhoff has been struggling quite a bit as well.

Also Consider: Daniel Murphy - 2B, at PIT ($3,800)

Joey Gallo - 3B, vs PHI ($3,300)

I don't mind to pick on Eickhoff alone, but this one is just too good to pass up. Gallo has his nights where he fails to hit value, but those are becoming fewer and farther in between while his nights of absolutely crushing his price implied value are more frequent. For the upside he represents, this is quite an ideal price. In 2017, he's the proud owner of a .344 wOBA split and monstrous .322 ISO split.

Also Consider: Evan Longoria - 3B, at CLE ($2,800) - GPP

Trea Turner - SS, at PIT ($3,900)

Turner's priced has dropped a pretty significant $500 despite beating value in two of his past three games. What this means is that the FanDuel pricing has yet to catch up and we likely wont see Turner as such an ideal price for a while if he continues the upswing - and he most likely will. Turner sports great splits this season - .395 wOBA, .255 ISO - and he's had an average batted ball distance of 213 feet and a 40% flyball rate in the past 15 days. I smell a home run on the horizon tonight.

Also Consider: Pat Valaika - SS, at MIN ($3,000) - GPP

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

Charlie Blackmon - OF, at MIN ($4,000)

Blackmon leaves the opportune confines of Coors Field, and it's that fact that I am hoping he is faded tonight in tournaments because despite the negative park shift, this is a really strong matchup for him. Phil Hughes has been known to get tattooed from time to time and Blackmon with his monstrous splits - .421 wOBA, .308 ISO - is in line to take advantage.

Franklin Gutierrez - OF, at SFG ($2,900)

Gutierrez is a strong tournament option tonight and if he's slotted sixth or higher in this potent Dodgers lineup he makes for a pretty solid cash game option as well. He's known as a southpaw killer for very good reason. He strikes out a fairly decent amount, but when he connects, he makes it count. For the year, he has a .263 ISO and 555 slugging percentage split against lefties.

Jorge Soler - OF, vs NYY ($2,600)

When Soler heats up he's really not a batter most pitchers like to face. He has a violent, hard stroke similar to that of Gary Sheffield, and when he turns on one, the ball gets out of the park in a damn hurry. Soler has a small sample size for the year but his ISO split is north of .300 and the hard hit rate of 31$ isn't extraordinary, but combine it with the fact he's got a 53% fly-ball rate and you have the makings of a home run recipe.

Also Consider: Andrew Benintendi - OF, at STL ($3,600)

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