RADIO
Welcome back!! This matchweek we have a special article, The Kick-Off, King Of The Pick Edition!! The 2023-2024 season has come and gone and we are officially at last week of the season.
The top three favorites for this week are Manchester City -1050 vs West Ham United +19000, Arsenal -700 vs Everton +1500, and Liverpool -700 vs Wolverhampton +1400. I will guide you through this ten-match slate starting at 11:00 A.M. EDT.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via X @df_solutions, or in our Discord chat rooms.
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Matches That Matter:
Manchester City – play West Ham at home – and Arsenal – play Everton at home – are both vying for the title this weekend with Arsenal down by two points with a goal difference advantage. Arsenal will need to win and Manchester City to draw or lose in order for the Gunners to have any shot of claiming the title.
If Manchester City wins the FA Cup – played next week –, either Chelsea or Newcastle will play in the Europa League next season. Chelsea currently holds the sixth spot with 60 points, while Newcastle are in seventh with 57 points and a large goal differential advantage. If Chelsea loses and Newcastle wins Newcastle will take over the sixth spot.
EPL DFS Goalies
Mark Flekken - DK $4.5K || FD $8
Opponent - Newcastle United
Value and ownership are going to be key items, especially in King Of The Pitch or KOTP. Goalie, Mark Flekken of Brentford FC accomplishes exactly that. As stated above, Newcastle needs to win and Brentford are playing at home. Two big advantages for Flekken.
Newcastle are expected to put on a shooting gallery and Brentford is already known for conceding more Shots Against Per 90 than Goals Against Per 90, setting the goalie up for a safe floor. Flekken is also the only keeper at home who has any remote chance of winning his respective match at home that has a salary of less than $5K. Even if he is to concede one or two goals, his save volume alone should keep him around value.
Mark Travers - DK $4K || FD $8
Opponent - Chelsea
Mark Travers is in a similar position to that of Mark Flekken, however, his chances of pulling off a win are not as high. Despite his win chances being lower, his save volume is nearly identical to Flekken's. Outside of Cole Palmer from Chelsea, the Blues have not posed a significant threat the majority of the season. If Travers can keep them at bay, he could win someone KOTP. Keep in mind that Travers started the season in the Championship with Stoke City and played well enough to earn a call back to AFC Bournemouth.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Raya (DK $5.9K || FD $13), Sa (DK $3.7K || FD $7)
EPL DFS Forwards
Son Heung-Min - DK $7.8K || FD $21
Opponent - Sheffield United
Outside of playing at Bramall Lane, there is little reason as to why Son Heung-Min or otherwise known as Son is less than $8K on DraftKings. In the forward’s last five domestic matches, he has two goals, 12 shots, 11 created chances, seven crosses, two corners, and four tackles.
When assessing from a season viewpoint, Son is the 15th-best player in Progressive Carries with 110 and he is also the second-best player for the Spurs in Progressive Carries with only Dejan Kulusevski producing more. Sheffield, in Per 90 stats, is the worst club in Shots Against, Created Chances Against, In-the-Box Shots Against and In-the-Box Goals Against. For just under $8K on DraftKings, Son is expected to blow past his value with at least one goal or assist, four shots, and three created chances.
Morgan Gibbs-White - DK $7.9K || FD $16
Opponent - Burnley FC
Morgan Gibbs-White is another value player and one that may generate half the ownership he typically would see on a smaller slate. The attacking midfielder has produced one goal, three assists, 10 created chances, 16 crosses, four corners, four tackles, four interceptions, and three clearances in his most recent five domestic fixtures.
The Clarets, are a bottom-five club, defensively, in the top flight. Revisiting Gibbs-White’s first meeting with Burnley at the beginning of the season, he posted four shots, two created chances, eight crosses, five corners, and one tackle. In order for him to help take down a KOTP, Gibbs-White will need to surpass his value and more.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Saka (DK $10.5K || FD $23), Muniz (DK $7K || FD $18)
EPL DFS Midfielders
Cole Palmer - DK $9.5K || FD $24
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Cole Palmer is the heartbeat of Chelsea and the key to their club’s resurgence in the second half of the season. In his last five domestic appearances, he has two goals, one assist, 24 shots, 16 created chances, 27 crosses, 16 corners, one tackle, three interceptions, and two clearances. The Cherries have been an inconsistent club defensively the entire season with them dropping their last two matches, getting outscored 5-1 in the process. Over the season, they are a bottom-ten club defensively and are the fifth-worst in both Goals Against Per 90 and In-the-Box Goals Against Per 90.
This bodes well for Palmer who thrives on the wing. Over the season in the Premier League, Palmer is the seventh-best in Expected Assists Per 90, the eighth-best in Shot-Creating Actions Per 90, and the fifth-best in Goal-Creating Actions Per 90. Furthermore, over the season, he is the 13th-best in Progressive Carries in the top flight with 111 carries and the second-best on Chelsea with only Raheem Sterling ahead of him with 116. If Chelsea is to secure their place as the sixth-best club in the top flight, Palmer will need to have a ceiling match.
James Maddison - DK $6.9K || FD $18
Opponent - Sheffield United
Yet another Spurs player sees their salary slashed for the final match of the season. James Maddison who typically sits between the top of the $8K range and middle of the $9K range is less than $7K on DraftKings!! That is a crime and everyone should be taking full advantage. However, that could pose a problem.
Those playing KOTP may be forced to play Maddison due to his overwhelming ownership and his high chances of having one final solid performance. Throughout his last five domestic matches – three starts –, he has one assist, nine shots, nine created chances, 26 crosses, 24 corners, five tackles, and two interceptions. As mentioned above, Sheffield United is not a top-tier club when it comes to defense. Despite Maddison sitting behind the front three, the creative midfielder is the catalyst to the attack and he will be heavily involved in a battle for sixth place.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pereira (DK $6.6K || FD $15), Kulusevski (DK $4.6K || FD $15)
EPL DFS Defenders
Pedro Porro - DK $5.5K || FD $15
Opponent - Sheffield United
As expected, Pedro Porro was a massive all-around addition for Tottenham this year, bringing his two-way play and eagerness to jump into the attack. He showcased that once again in the 2-1 win over Burnley a week ago, where he generated one goal, four shots, one created chance, five crosses, one tackle, and one interception.
Dating it back to his last five outings and he has one goal, nine shots, five created chances, 27 crosses, five corners, eight tackles, five interceptions, and eight clearances. He is a fantasy gold mine on FanDuel’s platform where they weigh defensive actions much higher. Either way, he walks into a premium matchup for the final fixture of the season. Sheffield United in Per 90 stats, are the worst in Crosses Against, In-the-Box Shots Against, and In-the-Box Goals Against. Expect Porro to have one of his best performances of the season.
Timothy Castagne - DK $3.9K || FD $11
Opponent - Luton Town FC
Just in time for the season to end, Timothy Castagne started to feel comfortable enough in his own skin, proving that he still has his fire from when he played for Leicester City. The fullback in his last five domestic matches has, one goal, one assist, two shots, two created chances, seven crosses, nine tackles, four interceptions, 12 clearances, and three blocks.
Those are stellar peripherals for someone who has been overlooked and will be on a large ten-game slate. He may not generate as many defensive actions due to Luton Town’s poor offense, however, he will have plenty of chances to generate offensive peripherals. For under $4K on DraftKings, Castagne is the ideal low-ownership play with the potential for a high-ceiling match.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Trippier (DK $6.5K || FD $15), Aina (DK $4K || FD $10)
Corner Takers
- Arsenal: Saka
- Everton: McNeil
- Brentford FC: Mbeumo/Jensen
- Newcastle United: Trippier/Murphy
- Brighton & Hove Albion: Groß
- Manchester United: Fernandes
- Burnley FC: Brun Larsen
- Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White
- Chelsea: Palmer
- AFC Bournemouth: Cook/Christie
- Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
- Aston Villa: Luiz
- Luton Town FC: Doughty
- Fulham FC: Pereira
- Manchester City: De Bruyne
- West Ham United: Ward-Prowse/Bowen
- Sheffield United: Hamer
- Tottenham Hotspur: Maddison/Porro
- Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Robertson
- Wolverhampton: Ait-Nouri/Gomes
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off. Good luck in all of your contests today!
