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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 4 of the 2025-26 season on 8/30/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how best to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
The EPL is back after the international break. We had a profitable Matchday 3 and have four more matchdays before the next international break. With the European club competitions kicking off next week, too, there is no shortage of action to look forward to in the coming weeks.
Here, we'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 4 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Betting Picks
Bournemouth (+138) vs. Brighton (+190) - 10:00 a.m. ET - Saturday, September 13
Bournemouth made it back-to-back 1-0 wins in the league with their impressive victory at Tottenham Hotspur. In truth, the scoreline flattered Tottenham. Brighton had an even more impressive victory last time out. They came from behind to beat Manchester City 2-1 for the second time in 12 months.
We're going to play the goals market, picking at least three goals being scored in this game. That's happened in the last four meetings between these two. According to whoscored.com, Brighton's 5.91 xG (expected goals) is the third most in the EPL, while Bournemouth's 5.63 xG is the fourth most.
We'll also be backing Brighton to win the game, using the 'draw no bet' market. This ensures our stake is refunded in the event of a draw and more than doubles our money if the Seagulls win. Brighton has won five of the last six fixtures against Bournemouth.
Betting Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-139) - 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Brighton - draw no bet (+106) - 1 unit
West Ham United (+235) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+114) - 12:30 p.m. ET - Saturday, September 13
The oddsmakers appear to be pricing this game on the results two weeks ago. West Ham beat Nottingham Forest 3-0, but Forest were the better team for 80 minutes and capitulated late. West Ham were dreadful in their previous two games. Bournemouth completely outplayed Tottenham on Matchday 3.
But Spurs won their opening two fixtures, scoring five and conceding none. We'll take Tottenham to win or draw with both teams scoring in the game. Six of the last seven league meetings have seen both sides score, and the previous three times Spurs have visited West Ham, the game ended 1-1.
Betting Pick: Single game parlay - both teams to score & double chance (Tottenham win or draw) - Yes (-113) - 1.5 units
Brentford (+340) vs. Chelsea (-129) - 3:00 p.m. ET - Saturday, September 13
Cole Palmer is set to miss out with a groin injury, which should allow Enzo Fernandez to continue playing in a slightly more advanced role. It's something he's been doing more of following his move to Chelsea, as evidenced by his goal against West Ham back on Matchday 2.
Enzo Fernandez extends Chelsea's lead! 😲 pic.twitter.com/8AstUfUGar
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) August 22, 2025
Palmer's absence also means that Enzo is on penalty duties, scoring one against Fulham a fortnight ago. While a goal is on the cards, we'll take things a little more carefully and back Enzo to have a shot on target at plus odds. He's achieved that in the last two games and in both matches against Brentford last season.
Betting Pick: Enzo Fernández - over 0.5 shots on target (+120) - 1 unit
Burnley (+850) vs. Liverpool (-295) - 9:00 a.m. ET - Sunday, September 14
Liverpool possesses the only 100% record in the EPL after three games. They should have no problem extending it to four games. Burnley kept a clean sheet in their only home game so far, but that came against fellow newly promoted side, Sunderland. They conceded three against Tottenham and Manchester United.
Liverpool put four past Bournemouth and three past Newcastle United. Liverpool also scored 16 goals in six matches against newly promoted sides last season. They scored at least three goals in four of those fixtures. We'll play Liverpool to score three times at plus odds.
If we back Liverpool to score a few goals, it makes sense to play an individual player. That player is Florian Wirtz. The German international hasn't set the league alight since his summer transfer, failing to register a goal or assist so far. We'll be backing that to change on Sunday.
Florian Wirtz for Germany vs. Northern Ireland:
◉= Most ground duels won (7)
◉ Most fouls won (4)
◉ Most chances created (3)
◉= Most shots (2)
◉ Most shot on target (2)And one fantastic free-kick. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/pYYIsGEgtj
— Squawka (@Squawka) September 8, 2025
Wirtz leads Liverpool in shot-creating actions (11), without having an attacking return to his name. He scored for Germany against Northern Ireland during the international break and is set to break his duck for Liverpool.
Betting Pick: Over 2.5 total goals by Liverpool (+118) - 1 unit
Betting Pick: Florian Wirtz to score or assist (+112) - 1 unit
Here are our weekly parlays, opting for the results, individual players, and our top picks. Obviously, you can mix and match them however you choose if you're following our match predictions.
Parlay 1: Bournemouth/Brighton over 2.5 total goals, West Ham/Tottenham both teams to score, and Liverpool over 2.5 total goals (+507) - 0.5 units
Parlay 2: Enzo Fernández over 0.5 shots on target and Florian Wirtz to score or assist (+366) - 0.5 units
Parlay 3: Brighton win or draw, Tottenham win, Chelsea win, and Liverpool win (+706) - 0.5 units
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be giving out some individual players worth consideration based on how games are expected to play out.
Attack
Sunday's games look like the best options for goals this weekend. The oddsmakers have Liverpool's trip to Burnley as the shortest priced to see at least three total goals (-167). That's an implied probability of 62.55%. Just behind that is the Manchester Derby, with an implied probability of 62.26% for over 2.5 total goals.
Back in April, these two sides played out a goalless draw. Their previous six EPL meetings saw a total of 27 goals. While I do expect the over to hit, this isn't a game I'd be targeting too heavily in DFS or FPL. United will likely be pragmatic in their approach, but have carried an attacking threat.
Manchester United are currently the biggest xG underperformers (-4.99) across Europe’s top five leagues. 🎯❌ pic.twitter.com/KKNpi6LKyy
— WhoScored (@WhoScored) September 7, 2025
We have three games this weekend with plus odds for over 2.5 total goals. One of which sees Fulham host Leeds United, with the two clubs having scored three goals between them so far. Leeds' only goal this season came from the penalty spot. This is a fixture I'd be steering well clear of in all formats.
Defense
Of the three aforementioned games with plus odds for over 2.5 total goals, two teams stand out to target defensively in fantasy. That's Crystal Palace and Everton. The Eagles host a Sunderland side that blanked in their only other away game this season.
Meanwhile, the Toffees welcome Aston Villa, the only side yet to score a goal this season. The concern is that Villa surely won't go four games without a goal to start the season. And Villa did welcome some new attacking recruits at the transfer deadline, so I wouldn't bank too much on Everton keeping a clean sheet.
One team I would bank on blanking their opponent is Newcastle. The Magpies have the lowest xGA (expected goals against), courtesy of whoscored.com.
Making the trip to St. James' Park is Wolves. The side with the lowest xG this season, courtesy of whoscored.com.
Wolves have also blanked in three of their last four trips to Newcastle, losing the last two encounters 3-0. There's little reason to think Newcastle won't be able to keep another clean sheet against Wolves this weekend.
Players to Target
Erling Haaland remains the safest attacking option. City’s attack hasn’t really clicked into gear yet, nor has Manchester United’s defence. The Red Devils conceded two against Grimsby Town and Burnley before the international break. Haaland has six goals and three assists in his five league games against United.
We've already covered Wirtz in our betting picks, so it makes sense to pair him with another Liverpool player in fantasy. While many DFS and FPL players will be clamouring for record signing Alexander Isak as their striker, I don't expect him to start this weekend's game.
Alexander Isak played just 28 minutes for Sweden during the international break ⏰
Do you have concerns over the forward’s minutes ahead of Gameweek 4? 👀 pic.twitter.com/HzbN1OIVq8
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) September 9, 2025
Instead, Liverpool will likely go with Hugo Ekitike to lead the line again. Isak will play some part, but that will probably be from the bench. That'll leave him fresh for Liverpool's midweek Champions League tie. Ekitike has two goals and an assist to his name in the EPL so far.
At the other end of the pitch, Daniel Munoz is an ideal defender to target. As well as being in contention for a clean sheet, the Palace full-back poses an attacking threat. He's already got one assist this season and tallied 10 attacking returns last campaign.
It's a similar story for Newcastle's Kieran Trippier. Trippier just about helped us last week and should be in the running for another strong week. As well as a Newcastle clean sheet, Trippier is on set-piece duties. Wolves conceded the joint-most goals from set-pieces last season (20).
Matchday 3 Review
Below is a quick recap of how our picks last matchday turned out. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season. Good luck with those FPL and DFS teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
Wolves' game with Everton was one we avoided in FPL and DFS. It ended up being a five-goal thriller, despite the two sides totaling 3.15 xG (expected goals) between them in their opening two games. Thankfully, Newcastle United redeemed us with the clean sheet at Leeds United, which we predicted.
We also correctly avoided Sunderland's fixture with Brentford. Although the oddsmakers had it as the second-lowest scoring game of the weekend, both teams found the net, and it would have ruined many lineups and parlays.
It was also a solid week for our player picks. Chris Wood blanked (more on that shortly). But Erling Haaland found the net and Kieran Trippier kept a clean sheet, although the latter was subbed off just after the hour mark. That was still enough to bag a clean sheet bonus in FPL.
Chris Wood was second-most transferred-in player for Gameweek 3…
Today: 😐#FPL pic.twitter.com/cwyvAiWRfr
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) August 31, 2025
On the betting front, Bournemouth got us off to a flyer. Not only did they beat Tottenham, they bagged both of our bets when hitting the over in corners and cards. While Aston Villa's game with Crystal Palace didn't go as expected, we still saw the required three goals to secure another big win.
Unfortunately, we couldn't sweep the week or hit our parlay as Nottingham Forest were stunned by West Ham United. Chris Wood missed a very good chance in the second half to help us complete the perfect week, but we still come into Matchday 4 on the back of a profitable week.
Matchday 3: +2.16 units (8 units played)
Season: -2.06 units (20 units played)
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