EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 27: English Premier League

February 29, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 27 of the 2023-24 season, starting on 3/2/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

This week is a great one for DFS fans, with six games kicking off at the same time on Saturday. Despite that, the three title contenders all play on different days. We also now know the FA Cup quarter-finalists, so that gives us some clarity for the Gameweek 29 fixtures (the weekend of the cup fixtures). That makes it even more important to plan your FPL transfers over the coming two weeks.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Brentford (+205) vs. Chelsea (+115) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 2 Chelsea

Two wins and 10 defeats in their last 12 games has left Brentford just five points above the relegation zone. Six of their last nine EPL games have seen them concede at least three goals. Chelsea was branded "Billion Pound Bottle Jobs" following their EFL Cup final defeat. That loss should help inspire something, although they have conceded 10 goals in their last four EPL games. Neither defense is reliable, so both teams scoring seems optimal.

Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer

Palmer failed to shine when the lights shined brightest. But he's young and has helped carry Chelsea this season. They would be far worse off without his contributions (10 goals and seven assists). The fact he's scored or assisted more than 40% of Chelsea's goals this season shows he's the No. 1 FPL asset to roster from Chelsea.

Everton (+105) vs. West Ham United (+260) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 West Ham United

Everton's reduced points deduction might help ease some pressure. They've failed to win any of their last nine EPL games, but have drawn five of their last six. They've kept only two clean sheets at home against sides in the top half of the table (eight games). West Ham ended their six-game winless streak and three-game goalless run. They have still conceded at least twice in five of their last six games. Both teams finding the net here is the play.

Fantasy Player Pick: Jarrod Bowen

After blanking in his previous six games, Bowen returned with a bang. It's no coincidence that Lucas Paquetá had missed the previous six games and returned from injury on Monday. While Paquetá didn't get an assist, he provided more balance to West Ham's attack, which should help Bowen continue to thrive.

Is Jarrod Bowen looking like a much more enticing #FPL pick now that Lucas Paqueta has returned from injury? ⚒️

His hat-trick against Brentford certainly makes a case... pic.twitter.com/iVQWSvW42U

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 27, 2024

Fulham (+175) vs. Brighton (+145) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Fulham 1 – 1 Brighton

Fulham has lost just once in their last six EPL games. They have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 fixtures and just one in their last five home matches. Brighton's last-gasp equalizer saw them draw for the first time in five games. They lead the league with nine draws this season, including a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture. Four of the seven EPL contests between these two have ended with a share of the points. I expect the same this weekend.

Fantasy Player Pick: Pascal Groß

The German midfielder is only rostered by 9.9% of FPL managers, despite being a model of consistency this season. He's tallied more bonus points (26) than anyone else this season. His 123 points are eighth-most among midfielders and Groß has regained form with four assists and a goal in his last four matches. He got the assist for Brighton's goal in their draw with Fulham earlier this season. Another assist this week wouldn't shock anyone.

Has @OfficialBHAFC's Pascal Gross been an underrated #FPL pick this season? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/AvlrlnLxLH

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 27, 2024

Newcastle United (-115) vs. Wolves (+280) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 – 2 Wolves

Newcastle's four-game unbeaten run ended and for the seventh time in their last eight games, they conceded more than once when losing at Arsenal. There's been a total of 99 goals in Newcastle's 26 games (averaging 3.8 goals per game). Seven of Wolves' last 10 EPL games have seen three or more goals scored. These two played out a 2-2 draw earlier in the season and while I'm not confident in picking a winner, I expect plenty of goals.

Fantasy Player Pick: Pedro Neto

It's not often I pick a player from the side I expect to lose. But Pedro Neto is almost a 'must-play' in DFS and is underrated in FPL (6.4% TSB%). Only Ollie Watkins (15) has more assists than Neto (11) this season. Wolves will likely play on the counter-attack and Newcastle's leaky defense will struggle to prevent Neto from adding to his impressive goal-involvement tally.

The last time Hwang faced NEW, this happened. 👇🏻

Pedro Neto will also be up against the NEW FBs in a game where I expect us to play on the counter-attack. 🔥

I genuinely feel it's a game better suited to them than SHU. Don't think I'd bench them.#FPL pic.twitter.com/mj0uRgxeIC

— BlackWolf (@FPL_BlackWolf) February 28, 2024

Nottingham Forest (+475) vs. Liverpool (-195) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 2 Liverpool

Forest's last nine games have seen both teams score on eight occasions. They've scored two in each of their last three games and four of their last five home games. They've only been beaten by more than one goal at home once (13 games). Liverpool won the EFL Cup and progressed in the FA Cup in the last few days. Their squad is stretched, but they keep getting results. I expect the same again, but I like the chances of both teams finding the net more.

Fantasy Player Pick: Conor Bradley

With Trent Alexander-Arnold sidelined for another week, Bradley is set to continue deputizing. He has excelled since breaking into the team and has three assists and one goal in his four starts. At £4.1m, Bradley is the ideal discount option to allow you to pay up for stars in midfield and attack while still picking up a solid points haul.

Tottenham Hotspur (-205) vs. Crystal Palace (+500) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 0 Crystal Palace

Tottenham has had two weeks to prepare for this fixture with last week's match postponed due to Chelsea's involvement in the EFL Cup final. That defeat ended a five-game winning streak at home. Oliver Glasner won his first game in charge of Palace. It's difficult to know what to expect from Palace under their new manager and how they play. Regardless, it's even more difficult to favor anything except a home win.

Fantasy Player Pick: Son Heung-min

Son returned from the Asian Cup to come off the bench and get an assist against Brighton. He then blanked in his first start since returning against Wolves and will likely have enjoyed the week off more than anyone else. Son should be fully recovered from his international exploits and already has a goal against Palace this season. He's been able to outperform his expected stats all season and another goal this week shouldn't come as a surprise.

⚽️ Biggest xG overperformers in the Premier League this season:

◎ +4.40 - Son Heung-min
◎ +3.53 - Mohammed Kudus
◎ +3.23 - Diogo Jota
◎ +3.20 - Elijah Adebayo
◎ +3.15 - Callum Hudson-Odoi pic.twitter.com/ZpUJgYP98q

— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 23, 2024

Luton Town (+300) vs. Aston Villa (-130) - 12:30 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Luton Town 1 – 2 Aston Villa

Luton has faced nine of the current top 10 teams at home. They haven't lost by more than a goal in any of those games and scored in eight. They still lost five of those matches. Villa's 13 away games have seen both teams score in eight of them. They won the reverse fixture 3-1 and have scored and conceded in eight of their last 10 EPL games. Expect both teams to score again in this one.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins

Despite being the highest points scorer in FPL (170), Watkins still feels underappreciated. He's rostered by 53.9% of FPL managers, which is third-most, but isn't referred to in the same breath as some of the other elite options. While he's blanked in all three games against the current top-three teams and has to face them again before the end of the season, there's no reason to fade him. Especially against the third-leakiest defense (51 goals against).

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Burnley (+265) vs. Bournemouth (-105) - 8:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Burnley 1 – 1 Bournemouth

Burnley's sixth defeat in their last eight EPL games has all but consigned them to relegation. They've faced six of the current sides placed 11th or below. They've won one, drawn two, and lost two. Both defeats were 2-0, so they have been competitive in such games. Bournemouth comes into the weekend without a win in their last seven EPL games. This game looks like one where the two sides cancel each other out, so a draw appeals.

Fantasy Player Pick: Dominic Solanke

Solanke missed Bournemouth's midweek FA Cup tie due to a knee injury. It doesn't appear serious, but he will be causing much anxiety among FPL managers as he's the most transferred in player this week. That's down to Bournemouth's tantalizing schedule in the coming weeks. Bournemouth's Week 29 fixture with Wolves will be played another time due to Wolves' involvement in the FA Cup. But that just means another double gameweek for Solanke.

Manchester City (-350) vs. Manchester United (+800) - 10:30 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Manchester City 2 – 0 Manchester United

City has entered that part of their season in which they grind out results without being at their fluid best. They've picked up 29 points from their last 11 games, but their only three wins by more than one goal have come against sides in the bottom six. United suddenly looks toothless without Rasmus Højlund. They will likely try to play on the counterattack, as they have in away games against better sides. All that will do is limit the damage.

Fantasy Player Pick: Erling Haaland

Haaland frustrated FPL managers with just 10 points from his double gameweek. He failed to score last weekend against Brentford but did get an assist. If managers were getting concerned about his recent profligacy, he allayed those fears by scoring five goals against Luton Town in the FA Cup on Tuesday. He has five goals and three assists in three games against Manchester United, so start him with complete confidence on Sunday.

Can’t get over Haaland’s stats in the DGW25 matches:

Goals: 1️⃣

Total Shots: 15
Shots On Target: 8
Big Chances Missed 3 +
xG 2.42

10 points feels like a massive underachievement.#FPL #FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/BELq2rjMok

— FPL Swot (@FPLSWOT) February 23, 2024

Monday, March 4, 2024

Sheffield United (+1400) vs. Arsenal (-600) - 3:00 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 – 3 Arsenal

Sheffield United lost their last two home games by a score of 5-0. They've conceded five goals on five occasions this season, including away at Arsenal. They're currently on track to set a record for goals conceded in an EPL season. Arsenal has been the league's biggest scorers recently, with 25 goals in their six-game winning streak. It would be very much "EPL-like" for the hosts to cause an upset, but a heavy away win looks the most likely outcome.

Fantasy Player Pick: Bukayo Saka

Saka has scored in five consecutive league games, finding the net seven times in that run. Only Ollie Watkins (170) has scored more points than Saka (169) this season and he takes his red-hot form to the league's worst defense. It feels like a trap, but Saka is also in prime position for the midfield trifecta this week (a goal, an assist, and a clean sheet). That alone makes him an ideal captain candidate.

Can’t get over Haaland’s stats in the DGW25 matches:

Goals: 1️⃣

Total Shots: 15
Shots On Target: 8
Big Chances Missed 3 +
xG 2.42

10 points feels like a massive underachievement.#FPL #FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/BELq2rjMok

— FPL Swot (@FPLSWOT) February 23, 2024

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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