EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 26: English Premier League

February 22, 2024

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 26 of the 2023-24 season, starting on 2/24/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

After two additional midweek games on Matchday 25, we have just eight games this weekend. The EFL Cup Final takes place on Sunday between Chelsea and Liverpool. Their games against Luton Town and Tottenham Hotspur being rescheduled means we have a shortened slate but still plenty of action to enjoy. There's also a bonus preview of the EFL Cup Final at the end with my favorite plays.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Aston Villa (-190) vs. Nottingham Forest (+475) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 2 Nottingham Forest

Villa has alternated wins and losses over their last four games. Those four matches have seen a total of 15 goals, with Villa scoring nine of them. They've scored in every home fixture but conceded more than one in each of the last three. Forest's run of seven straight games in which both teams scored ended last weekend. Their last four away games have seen Forest score and concede. Goals at both ends seem likely this weekend.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ollie Watkins

His 161 FPL points this season are only bettered by Mo Salah (167). Four goals and five assists in his last six games leaves Watkins as the must-have forward and there's no reason to believe he won't add to those numbers this week.

Brighton (-120) vs. Everton (+300) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Brighton 3 – 0 Everton

Brighton's form looks like it's improving, with just two defeats in their last eight EPL games. After three consecutive blanks, they have scored 10 goals in their last three games. Everton's struggles in front of goal have seen them score just three goals in their last six games, blanking in four of them. They've failed to find the net in any of their last three away fixtures. A comfortable home win is the best play here.

Fantasy Player Pick: Simon Adingra

If you saw the RotoBaller Roundtable for this week's FPL preview, you'd have seen a consensus of support for Adingra. He created Côte d'Ivoire's two goals in the AFCON final and returned to EPL action by scoring twice last weekend. Brighton faces Fulham and Nottingham Forest in the following two weeks before a tough schedule. Adding Adingra now for the upcoming three juicy fixtures looks like a great differential play (0.5% TSB in FPL).

Set to claim a share of the bonus ⏳
Best ever #FPL return ✅
Game-high five shots in the box 👟

It's safe to say Simon Adingra is back with a bang 🔥#FPL #SHUBHA pic.twitter.com/N1jvYyW6ZM

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 18, 2024

Crystal Palace (-105) vs. Burnley (+300) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Burnley

Palace will welcome new manager Oliver Glasner to the home dugout this weekend. He'll be without stars Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, but Palace have scored in each of their last three games without the pair. Burnley's conceded 17 goals in their last six EPL games. But they have scored in seven of their last eight away games. Burnley has lost eight of their 12 away games and while I fancy both teams to score, a home win at this price is the play.

Fantasy Player Pick: Will Hughes

This is a DFS-only play as no player on either side has any appeal in FPL right now. If Hughes does start, he'll be Palace's primary corner taker. Burnley's conceded more goals from corners (nine) than any other team this season. This is a dart throw that could pay dividends, especially if the new manager has worked on set pieces this week.

Manchester United (-180) vs. Fulham (+425) - 10:00 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Manchester United 3 – 1 Fulham

Manchester United has dragged themselves back into the top-five race with four straight wins. They can go level on points with fifth-place Tottenham and will be seeking to score at least two goals for a sixth consecutive game. Fulham's won just won of their 12 away games this season. Only Sheffield United (five) have taken fewer points on their travels than Fulham (seven). United should make it five wins in five games.

Fantasy Player Pick: Rasmus Højlund

Højlund needs no build up. Just a look at his numbers in recent weeks should be all the incentive you have to play him in DFS and add him in FPL. Only three teams have conceded more goals away from home than Fulham (26), so the Danish forward is in a perfect spot to keep his run going.

Rasmus Hojlund leads the way among forwards over the last seven Gameweeks 🔥#FPL pic.twitter.com/oanN47wVPw

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) February 19, 2024

Bournemouth (+600) vs. Manchester City (-250) - 12:30 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 2 Manchester City

After going seven games unbeaten, Bournemouth's now failed to win any of their last six EPL games. They have conceded 14 goals in that winless run, but have scored in five of the games. City's winning run ended last weekend, but they bounced back to winning ways on Tuesday. They have only kept one clean sheet on their travels since the opening weekend of the season. Both teams scoring in this game looks like the best value play.

Fantasy Player Pick: Kevin De Bruyne

De Bruyne was rested in midweek, so he should be fresh for this weekend. Since returning from injury, De Bruyne has only started one away game. He came off the bench to score and assist at Newcastle and got an assist at Brentford. You can't back against him getting a fifth assist in only his fourth start this season.

Arsenal (-265) vs. Newcastle United (+600) - 3:00 p.m. EST

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 1 Newcastle United

Arsenal made it five straight wins to begin the calendar year for the first time in their history. They've scored 21 goals in the process and Taiwo Awoniyi is the only opposition player to have scored against them in that run. Newcastle's 41 goals conceded are more than the entirety of last season (33). There have been at least four goals in each of their last seven EPL matches, so taking the 'over' in total goals here makes sense.

Arsenal have won their first FIVE league games of the calendar year for the first time in their history.

✅ 0-5 vs. Burnley
✅ 0-6 vs. West Ham
✅ 3-1 vs. Liverpool
✅ 1-2 vs. Nottingham Forest
✅ 5-0 vs. Crystal Palace

Record breakers. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3PdfoOTVYC

— Connor Humm (@TikiTakaConnor) February 17, 2024

Fantasy Player Pick: Bukayo Saka

Saka scored a brace for the second straight game last weekend, making it six goals in his last four games. He's scored a total of 49 FPL points in the last four games and is third in the FPL ranks for total points (159). Newcastle's leaky defense and Arsenal's goal-scoring form makes Saka an ideal captain option this weekend.

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Wolves (-220) vs. Sheffield United (+550) - 8:30 a.m. EST

Score prediction: Wolves 3 – 0 Sheffield United

Wolves did the double over Tottenham last weekend and will want to end a two-game losing run at home. Their 2-0 defeat against Brentford at home on Matchday 24 was their first home defeat against a side in the bottom half of the table. Sheffield United took another hammering last weekend, losing by five or more goals for the fifth time this season. Anything but an easy home win seems unlikely with at least three goals being scored.

Sheffield United set new record for most goals conceded after 25 Premier League games 📉 pic.twitter.com/NQ8jMnRYML

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) February 18, 2024

Fantasy Player Pick: Pedro Neto

Despite missing nine games through injury, Neto's 11 assists are the second-most in the league. Since returning from injury, Neto has started five games, scoring once and picking up three assists. He's Wolves' biggest threat in the final third and Sheffield United looks incapable of stopping anyone with quality from picking them apart. A double-digit points haul is well within Neto's capabilities this weekend.

Monday, February 26, 2024

West Ham United (+145) vs. Brentford (+175) - 3:00 p.m. EST

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 2 Brentford

West Ham turned a six-game unbeaten streak into a six-game winless run in the space of three matches. Three draws have been followed by three abject defeats in which they've conceded 11 goals without scoring. Brentford has lost four of their last five matches and have only two wins from their last 11 EPL games. I do expect West Ham to end their barren spell in front of goal and with both teams having leaky defenses, goals will be plentiful.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ivan Toney

Since returning from suspension, Toney has scored four goals (with one assist) in six games. The only games he failed to score in were both against Manchester City. Toney has only faced West Ham three times since Brentford's promotion to the EPL. He has two goals and two assists against them. He remains one of the best forward options in FPL and will expect to keep up his goal-scoring form since returning to the side.

EFL Cup Final

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Chelsea (+220) vs. Liverpool (+120) 10:00 a.m. EST 

Score Prediction: Chelsea 0 - 1 Liverpool (+850)

Liverpool's injury issues may temper their attacking play. But they have enough depth to get through a big game with the longer-term likely more impacted by the issues. Chelsea has shown signs they are finding some form in the league, but still throw in a poor performance too regularly to have any confidence in backing them. I expect a normal cup final game with things being nervy to begin with before Liverpool finds the winner later on.

Favorite Plays

Both teams to score - No (+135)
Total goals - Under 2.5 (+115)

Before Liverpool's 4-1 win over Chelsea less than four weeks ago, the prior seven meetings were drawn (including four 0-0 draws). That includes two cup finals, which Liverpool went on to win on penalties after being goalless. They repeated the same feat in the FA Cup final less than three months later. Both teams have scored in only one of the last six EFL Cup finals as it's usually a tight and closely contested game.

Chelsea to score - No (+245)

This is the third EFL Cup final for Chelsea in the last six years. They lost the previous two in penalties after goalless draws. Chelsea have also competed in five of the last seven FA Cup finals. They lost four of them, failing to score in each of their last two and only scoring once in the other three. Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino managed Tottenham in two cup finals (Champions League and EFL Cup). He lost both games 2-0.

Half time/full time 90 minutes - Draw/Liverpool (+425)
Second half moneyline - Liverpool (+135)

We see with so many cup finals, both domestically and internationally, the first half will be edgy. Games will generally open up in the second half. Liverpool has been level at the break in 13 of their 25 EPL games this season, while Chelsea has gone in at halftime deadlocked 15 times. Chelsea has been outscored in the second half 13 times. Liverpool have outscored their opponents in the second half 18 times.

Most bookings - Chelsea (-105)

In Chelsea's last two EFL Cup finals, they've picked up three bookings and more than their opponents. They also picked up three and four yellow cards in the two league meetings this season, and with 82 yellow cards shown in the league, are the EPL's most booked team.

Darwin Nunez 5+ total shots (+180)
Darwin Nunez to hit the woodwork (+800)

Darwin Nunez hit the woodwork a record four times against Chelsea in Liverpool's 4-1. With Diogo Jota out injured, expect the Uruguayan to start the game if he's fit enough to. He had a total of 10 shots in that game and while I don't expect a repeat, he'll certainly be trying to put that last meeting behind him from a personal standpoint.

Darwin Núñez hit the woodwork FOUR times against Chelsea, setting a new Premier League record for a single game 🫣 🏅 pic.twitter.com/apOgnruct2

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) January 31, 2024

Mo Salah to not score and Liverpool to win or draw (+120)

Mo Salah has never scored a non-penalty goal in a cup final. While he made a triumphant return from injury last weekend, scoring and assisting against Brentford, Salah is still nursing a hamstring issue and missed Wednesday's game. While I have no doubts he will start unless the injury is severe, being odds-on to score when history is against him doesn't bode well. Add in Liverpool to avoid defeat in 90 minutes to get plus odds.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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