Early 2020 Best-Ball Draft Strategy

March 30, 2020

Dominick Petrillo advises fantasy football managers on general fantasy football draft strategies to use in 2020 best-ball leagues during the early NFL offseason.

When it comes to draft strategies for fantasy football, there are too many to name. Zero-RB, late-round QB, Value-Based Drafting... whatever you like, it is out there.

Instead of going through all of them, we want to know what the best strategy is to use in early best-ball drafts. It is still quite early, as the NFL Draft has yet to take place, so nobody is holding draft in dynasty or season-long leagues yet (hopefully). That means best-ball is the name of the game, at least until the redraft season officially kicks off with the Scott Fish Bowl expert league in July!

Of course, strategy depends a lot on the scoring aspect of specific leagues, not to mention roster construction. For our purposes here, we will be talking about a general strategy and not about specific players or roster types. I mean, even I can see that the best way to win is to get Christian McCaffrey or Michael Thomas. But not everyone will have the chance to do so. First round aside, what kind of player should you target in your early best-ball drafts?

Seek the Studs

Obviously, the best way to win is to draft as many studs as you can. But not all studs are in plain sight. Whether it be a rookie like A.J. Brown having a monster late-season surge or DeVante Parker having a fifth-season breakout, not all studs are seen beforehand. The same goes for Lamar Jackson, who was a league-winner for many fantasy owners. Ideally, you want a top performer at each position that can carry your team on a weekly basis. Easier said than done though.

Some studs don’t work out. JuJu Smith-Schuster was supposed to be a top-five WR in 2019. In case you forgot, he wasn’t and neither was James Conner. So, although you do want to get a mix of studs in place, don’t put all of your eggs in one basket because if that basket falls, all the eggs will break and so will your season. Be careful when stacking offenses in best-ball because you have no waivers to fall back on. Choose your studs wisely - there's no need to take risks early in your draft, even in best-ball.

Look for the Signs

First and foremost, look at teams who have lost key players and signed new ones to take their place in free agency. Fantasy football is all about opportunity. It is also important to look at last season and who was injured. This is a big factor as it means a breakout player from last season may not have the same value this season. Greg Ward and Boston Scott, I am looking in your direction. Those players should be non-factors this year and don't warrant a roster spot.

When it comes to players switching teams, this is very important. Most players switch due to free agency. This means they are going to a team that wants to use them in a specific way. Sure, it does not always work out in the end. The idea is still there though, and they will get the chance to prove their worth.

A player like Philip Rivers going to the Colts is an easy one. The QB is always going to touch the ball on every play. He will dictate everything that goes on around him, so it is important to look at the supporting cast around them. It is different for other skill players.

Devin Funchess going to Green Bay may seem like an insignificant move to some. What does it mean for the other receivers on the Packers though? For one, it means the team is not really happy with the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison. They were given a chance to shine with Davante Adams sidelined early last season and they failed. The team felt they needed more help at receiver, which is why they signed Funchess. Does this mean he is going to be great? No, of course not. It does mean the likes of MVS and Allison need to be even lower in your priority than they currently are. Going from the second and third receivers down to third and fourth in pecking order is a big drop.

Situations like this need to be looked at carefully before taking late fliers on someone who may have no value at all based on offseason moves.

Rookies

The hardest portion of your draft to figure out of course is rookies. At this point, we don’t know where they are going to end up. We also don’t know how they will acclimate to the life of an NFL player. Are they going to be Amari Cooper and show up in their rookie season or are they going to be Josh Doctson and never arrive?

The important thing to remember with rookies is, the further away from the quarterback they are, the longer it usually takes them to perform in the league. While an RB can show out in year one, something we have seen multiple times recently, the WR and TE positions usually take a couple of seasons to mature into solid contributors.

If you are going to plant your stake on a rookie helping you, it would be better to gamble on a player like Jonathan Taylor or J.K. Dobbins and less on a receiver like Ceedee Lamb or Henry Ruggs.

Not only does the RB position usually pan out sooner than the WR position, running backs also get injured at a higher rate. This means the opportunity for them is higher to get more playing time. When it comes to best-ball drafts, opportunity is key. You cannot make any changes during the season so finding someone like Deebo Samuel from last season, a player with not much in front of him on the depth chart, is important. It's also hard to do. You might just end up with N'Keal Harry.

The Key

There is no perfect strategy. There is no perfect anything. This is why we continue to play and continue to refine things each and every season.

The key is to do your homework. That starts with RotoBaller's preseason Best-Ball rankings, of course. Look for the studs available at each position in each round when you can, but make sure not to prioritize them to the detriment of your other needs. Finding the next breakout player mixed with a smattering of rookies and late fliers is important too. Sure, it is scary to try to figure out which one to choose. Everyone thinks they know best. If this were the case, we would all win. Unfortunately, this cannot happen. There would be riots and looting in the streets.

Do your homework, find players you really like and plant your flag. Just remember to always look at a player's surrounding situation and don’t just rely on stats from last season. Recency bias is real and it can be used to the destruction of a winning roster.

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