RADIO
Before you read any farther, check out the first part of this series, where I look at five receivers who I think are risers in dynasty right now. Don't worry...I'll wait for you to read that.
Alright, welcome back! Now that I've covered some names that you should target, let's talk about five wide receivers whose dynasty outlooks don't look as good. I'm not going to cover some of the obvious names like Larry Fitzgerald and Jordy Nelson, who are varying degrees of fine players and are falling in large part due to concerns about longevity. Age is always part of the concern in dynasty leagues, but I want to highlight players who have other concerns in addition to age.
Also, a quick bonus note: there are some players who aren't rising or falling but represent a good value for teams wanting to win right now, players like Rishard Matthews and Pierre Garcon can help you win now, but they can't really help you win in 2020. So, who should you be avoiding? Who won't return much value this year and will definitely not return much value in the future? Let's find out. (Positional ranking in RotoBaller's dynasty ranks in parentheses.)
Dynasty Wide Receiver Stock Watch: The Fallers
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns (WR56)
Trade rumors have started to circle Coleman, which could end up being a good thing for the young wide receiver, who currently projects to be the third option at wide receiver for the Browns and could fall farther as the team seems to be enamored with rookie Antonio Callaway.
Coleman has had a disappointing first two seasons in the NFL as injuries have cost him parts of both years, leading to PPR finishes as the WR83 and the WR91. The hype around Coleman, which was high when he was drafted 15th overall in 2016, is starting to drop. That hype was justified at one time based on his workout metrics:
There's some obvious reasons why people were high on Coleman, especially when it looked like Josh Gordon's career was over and he'd be the future main option in Cleveland. But Gordon's return and the trade for Jarvis Landry has pushed Coleman down the depth chart, and nothing about Coleman's 2017 performance -- when he ranked outside the top 100 in catch rate and quarterback rating when targeted -- suggests that he's going to perform well in Cleveland this year.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers (WR30)
Funchess owners were feeling good last season after the Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin and Funchess stepped into the starting role for the Panthers. He finished as the WR20 in PPR last season and there were high hopes coming into this season. Those hopes still exist, but Carolina's drafting of D.J. Moore puts a damper on some of the long term outlook for Funchess. In the Cam Newton era, there have been just two seasons where a receiver finished better than 20th (and a pair of finishes at 20th) and the number two receiver on the team has never finished higher than WR47.
So, we have seven years of evidence that suggests Moore and Funchess can't both put up sustainably strong seasons. In the near future, my money is still on Funchess, who has the advantage of knowing the Panthers system and having already established a connection with Newton, but if Moore shows promise and steps up as the season progresses, we're likely looking at a downturn in production from Funchess at the worst possible time. By 2019, Funchess has hardly any fantasy value if Moore winds up as the team's WR1. I'd be looking to sell on Funchess in dynasty if I can right now.
Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta Falcons (WR67)
This one seems so obvious after the Falcons drafted Calvin Ridley and honestly...yeah, that obviousness is right. Barring injury, Julio Jones and Ridley should be the top two wide receivers in Atlanta for the foreseeable future. Where does that leave Sanu? He took 44.6 percent of his snaps from the slot last season, but Ridley has shown an ability to play both inside and outside, which means Sanu's role in the slot might not be safe this season. His catch rate, the 12th best last year, and his history of making contested catches gives him short term value, but so much will depend on Ridley's development. The Falcons also have a fairly easy out from Sanu's contract after this season, when the Falcons would save $6,000,000 if they cut Sanu after June 1, 2019. What does the market look like for a then 30 year old receiver? Not good enough to justify spending much capital on in dynasty.
Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills (WR78)
Jones was a top 50 guy at his position coming into his rookie season, but the addition of Kelvin Benjamin, the struggles of Jones, and the whole A.J. McCarron vs Josh Allen at quarterback thing has hurt his value. He's down to the WR78 spot in RotoBaller's rankings right now and, despite the major plus of his age, I'm pretty much right there in line with the rest of the crew on Jones.
He isn't, by any stretch of the imagination, completely ready to be written off as a bust, but there are things that really concern me. Here are some of Jones's efficiency stats per PlayerProfiler:
Those numbers are disconcerting for anyone counting on Jones. He made most of is plays in short yardage situation, but that was accompanied by a low catch rate, which is the opposite of what you want from someone being counted on in short yardage situations.
Jones could be a buy low candidate at the right price and a surprising Josh Allen performance could boost his value, but signs are pointing downward right now.
Carlos Henderson, Denver Broncos (Not Ranked)
This one goes out to the army of Carlos Henderson truthers, who had a point heading into this off-season seeing as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both barreling towards the end of their dynasty usefulness, but then the Broncos went out and drafted Courtland Sutton and Daesean Hamilton. Henderson still has value and could end up as a key piece for the Broncos, but I don't love his future after seeing how the Broncos drafted. In the short term, he'd have to beat out three players (Thomas, Sanders, and Sutton) who project to be the top three receivers in Denver. That's going to be nearly impossible barring injury.
Going forward? If the Broncos move on from Thomas and Sanders and go with youth at the position, Henderson should have a key role in 2019...unless the Broncos draft another receiver, or Hamilton beats out Henderson this season, or...
I'm feeling a Leonte Carroo/Laquon Treadwell situation here -- a guy with all the promise in the world, but not the right opportunity to take advantage of that situation. There's a reason Henderson isn't ranked in RotoBaller's latest dynasty rankings.
More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
