April 18, 2017

Kevin McHugh discusses the fantasy football dynasty league stock of current NFL running backs for 2017. These players may be risers or fallers according to ADP.

April is a fantastic month for dynasty gamers, as the 2017 NFL Draft is upon us.  While we wait for perhaps the NFL's most significant offseason event, there are plenty of current NFL players to talk about, namely running backs.

Here is a look at the running backs who saw a significant change in their dynasty stock for the 2017 season, for better or worse.

Note: 2017 average draft positions from Fantasy Football Calculator are in parentheses.

Stock Rising

Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (5.02)

2016 stats: 952 rush yards, 7 TDs, 40 receptions, 319 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Receiving a second-round tender from the Browns as a restricted free agent, Cleveland didn’t want Isaiah Crowell to get away, and for good reason. Crowell quietly finished 15th amongst running backs with 944 rushing yards in 2016, while tacking on 40 receptions despite the presence of receiving back Duke Johnson.

Isaiah Crowell had to create his own holes in 2017 behind a porous Cleveland offensive line. Fortunately, the Browns made a much-needed effort to improve up front in the offseason, adding free agent offensive linemen J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler.

With five picks in the first three rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft, the Browns will have plenty of opportunities to improve the offense as a whole. If Cleveland can make significant strides on offense in Hue Jackson’s second year on the job, Isaiah Crowell stands to benefit in 2017 and beyond.

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots (11.05)

2016 stats: 344 rush yards, 2 TDs, 17 receptions, 145 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Rex Burkhead signed with the New England Patriots after being underutilized in Cincinnati, and could provide serious value at the running back position in both redraft and dynasty. Burkhead was extremely productive when given a chance in 2016, posting at least 50 total yards when given 9 touches or more, and posted 144 total yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 touches in Week 17 against the Ravens.

In New England, Rex Burkhead looks to help replace LeGarrette Blount’s 299 carries in 2017, as he is far better suited for a heavy workload than Dion Lewis or James White. The Patriots called 482 running plays in 2016, the third-most in the league, so there will be carries to go around even if Blount resigns with New England. With Lewis and White primarily being utilized as 3rd-down options, Burkhead has a great shot to earn touches on 1st and 2nd down.

Tom Brady may be working with the best receiving corps he’s ever had, which should continue to clear out lanes in the running game.  Bound to see plenty of scoring opportunities, Rex Burkhead may finally get a chance to showcase his skills while playing in one of the most desirable situations for a running back in the entire league.

Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers (6.10)

2016 stats: 457 rush yards, 3 TDs, 44 receptions, 348 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Talk about running backs in desirable situations. No running back saw his stock climb higher this offseason than Ty Montgomery, who has a shot at a serious breakout season in 2017. Last season, the converted wide receiver ranked sixth in the league with 6.7 yards per touch while totaling 44 receptions. Montgomery  also was able to maintain his efficiency with a greater workload, as he totaled 126 and 163 total yards in the two games where he received at least 18 touches.

With Eddie Lacy and James Starks out of the picture, expect Ty Montgomery to take on a larger share of touches in 2017. The threat of Aaron Rodgers will continue to provide open lanes in the running game for Montgomery, and if the game script calls for it, he should continue to function as Green Bay’s primary receiving back.

The Packers didn’t bother to add a running back in free agency, instead choosing to retain Christine Michael, who is no threat to steal touches from anyone. Still only 24, Ty Montgomery could have quite a career in front of him.

C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks (8.03)

2016 stats: 172 rush yards, 1 TD, 17 receptions, 208 receiving yards, 0 TDs

C.J. Prosise had the look of a PPR monster as soon as he received significant playing time, totaling 153 yards on 24 touches in a Week 10 effort against New England. A week later, Prosise ripped off a 78-yard touchdown run against Philadelphia before suffering a fractured shoulder blade, ending his season. Prosise, who also played wide receiver in college, was brought in to provide Seattle the pass-catching back that has been missing in the offense for years.

While the injury was an unfortunate break for C.J. Prosise, it should allow fantasy owners to acquire the talented second-year back at a reasonable price. Further affecting the perception of Prosise is the presence of the newly acquired Eddie Lacy, and there are bound to be some Thomas Rawls truthers out there. While Seattle’s backfield appears crowded at the moment, keep in mind the Seahawks have no financial commitment to Lacy or Rawls long-term, as Lacy was signed to an incentive-based contract while Rawls was an undrafted free agent. Now is the time to acquire C.J. Prosise before his value skyrockets next offseason.

Stock Falling

Eddie Lacy, Seattle Seahawks (4.06)

2016 stats: 360 rush yards, 0 TDs, 4 receptions, 28 yards, 0 TDs

Eddie Lacy signed with Seattle in the offseason on a contract that includes weight incentives, which should give you plenty of incentive to avoid him at all costs. Lacy joins a crowded backfield that includes the aforementioned C.J. Prosise and Thomas Rawls, and it will be anyone’s guess as to who receives the majority of carries week to week.

Having averaged a meager 4.8 yards per touch over the past two seasons, Eddie Lacy needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and he won’t get it in Seattle.  Making matters worse, Seattle fields a terrible offensive line, relying on Russell Wilson’s mobility, which caught up to them in 2016. Factor in C.J. Prosise as the primary back on passing downs, and there just isn’t much to like about Eddie Lacy going forward.

Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens (6.10)

2016 stats: 382 rush yards, 2 TDs, 30 receptions, 162 receiving yards, 1 TD

A popular dynasty target a year ago, the excitement around Kenneth Dixon has died down considerably. Dixon flashed some potential as a rookie, catching 30 passes hitting paydirt in 3 out of his final 4 games. Unfortunately, Baltimore acquired Danny Woodhead in the offseason, right before Dixon was popped with a 4-game suspension for PEDs.

Woodhead’s presence kills any value Kenneth Dixon would have provided this season as a receiver out of the backfield, and Terrance West is still there to handle early-down work.  In a crowded backfield that still includes Lorenzo Taliferro and Javorius Allen, Kenneth Dixon won’t have the opportunity to establish early-season momentum in 2017.

Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings (3.12)

2016 Stats: 788 rush yards, 12 TDs, 33 receptions, 264 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Latavius Murray can be considered one of the most disappointing running backs in fantasy football at this point. Murray has been extremely inefficient the past two seasons despite playing in theoretically one of the best situations for a running back in the entire league, while losing a considerable amount of work to DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Yes, Murray scored 12 touchdowns, but when you receive 40 red-zone carries in a prolific offense behind one of the best offensive lines in football, well, you do the math.

Signing with the Minnesota Vikings, Latavius Murray might want to make some adjustments to his upright running style. The Vikings fielded one of the worst offensive lines of all time last season, to the point where Sam Bradford had to check down so often, he set the all-time NFL record for completion percentage in a season. Unbelievable. The run blocking wasn’t very good either, as Viking running backs averaged a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry. Having averaged a mere 4.4 yards per touch over the past two seasons with Oakland, it’s hard to see Murray having much success in Minnesota.

James White, New England Patriots (11.2)

2016 stats:  166 rush yards, 0 TDs, 60 receptions, 551 receiving yards, 5 TDs

While he probably should have been named Super Bowl MVP, don’t let James White’s record-setting performance on the game’s biggest stage fool you. White has been very efficient on a per touch basis with New England, but never sees enough touches on a week-to-week basis to have any fantasy value.

Dion Lewis is by far the more dynamic pass-catching back, and health permitted, will see the majority of playing time in that role in 2017. In addition, Tom Brady has more options in the passing game than he’s ever had, and there won’t be enough targets to go around for James White. Throw in Rex Burkhead, a possible return by LeGarrette Blount and/or the addition of another free agent like Adrian Peterson, and White looks like nothing more than depth at the position.

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis