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Corbin's DEF fantasy football avoids, busts, draft fades for the first few weeks of 2025. These fantasy team defenses (DST) have tough early-season matchups.
If we're targeting defenses, then there probably will be teams to fade. Take a look at my latest article if you're interested in reading about the team defenses to target as sleepers. We discussed how NFL teams break their season into quarters, and we'll do the same for targeting and starting defenses.
It's rare to have one defense that fantasy managers start on their rosters for most of the season, regardless of matchup. With that, we have four team defenses that were strong via the numbers, have name value, or might have one or two friendly matchups. We could envision these teams being reliable at other points in the season, but not in the first four weeks.
We'll present the data and personnel changes that will impact these team defenses in 2025, particularly as the season begins. All these teams have been drafted inside the top-12 in Average Draft Position in Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Leagues, so fantasy managers have been prioritizing them in drafts. Don't let these team defenses eat up a roster spot in Weeks 1-4 unless it's a format with deep benches.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Green Bay Packers D/ST
- Week 1: GB vs. DET
- Week 2: GB vs. WSH
- Week 3: GB at CLE
- Week 4: GB at DAL
The Packers have nearly the same defensive personnel from last season, heading into 2025. Jaire Alexander signed with the Ravens in the offseason, but injuries have been an issue. Their main offseason addition for the Packers include Nate Hobbs from the Raiders and a few other Day 3 depth pieces.
Seventh-rounder Carrington Valentine stepped up, allowing 0.17 fantasy points per route (FP/RR) and 0.93 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2024, leading the team’s cornerbacks. Keisean Nixon (0.23 FP/RR and 0.87 YPRR) and Javon Bullard (0.26 FP/RR, 1.11 YPRR) were also decent to limit teams to the fifth-fewest FP/DB. The visual below shows the team defenses sorted by the highest zone coverage rate.
The Packers used zone coverage at the third-highest rate, specifically Cover 2 (No. 2) and Cover 3 (No. 10). They allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverage in 2024. The defensive schemes should remain the same, and they have consistency on their roster.
Furthermore, the Packers were stout against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt while bringing pressure at the 11th-highest rate.
Summary
The Packers face the Lions, Commanders, Browns, and Cowboys in their first four games. That’s three top offenses to face within the first four games, making it a challenging start. Depending on your league scoring, the Packers might be one of those defenses that generate 1-2 turnovers, but give up too many points to provide upside.
That’s further evident with the Packers having the second-highest over/under in Week 1, the second-most in Week 2, the worst in Week 3, and the fifth-most in Week 4. The Packers traded for Micah Parsons, which will boost their pressure rates even further. However, it might be strength against strength because the Cowboys (No. 3), Lions (No. 4), and Commanders (No. 10) ranked inside the top 10 in pressured rate allowed in 2024. This might be a scary defense in 2025 with the Parsons addition, but they face high-end offenses, especially against the pass to begin 2025.
Houston Texans D/ST
- Week 1: HOU at LAR
- Week 2: HOU vs. TB
- Week 3: HOU at JAX
- Week 4: HOU vs. TEN
Like the Packers, the Texans' defense has some intriguing pieces, yet it’s about the matchups in the first four weeks. Houston faces the Rams, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Titans in Weeks 1-4. The Texans generated pressure at the sixth-highest rate while being decent against the run game, with the 13th-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
They were middle of the pack in man coverage usage (No. 16), but allowed the 12th-lowest fantasy points per dropback when using man. Interestingly, the Texans allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback last season, but they have two of the better defensive backs, including Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.
Stingley allowed the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route and the fourth-lowest yards per route run. Lassister wasn’t elite, but he still limited receivers to 0.22 fantasy points per route and 0.97 yards per route run. They added veteran C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a third-round cornerback, Jaylin Smith, out of USC.
It is strength against strength, with the Texans generating pressure against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars, posting quality pass blocking numbers. The Texans also added Sheldon Rankins and Darrell Taylor to help against the run.
Summary
After playing through a range of outcomes, there’s a chance Matthew Stafford’s back issue lingers into Week 1 or he struggles to start hot. The Texans might bring pressure to make Stafford uncomfortable. We could envision a similar scenario with the Buccaneers, given Tristan Wirfs battling a knee injury. There’s a similar conversation when they face the Jaguars and Titans, making the Texans somewhat of a contrarian option.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST
- Week 1: SF at SEA
- Week 2: SF at NO
- Week 3: SF vs. ARI
- Week 4: SF vs. JAX
The 49ers have some consistency in their front seven, besides them losing Leonard Floyd, but gaining first-round rookie DE Mykel Williams. However, their secondary looks completely different without Charvarius Ward, who is now in Indianapolis, Deommodore Lenoir (hip), Talanoa Hufanga, who is now in Denver, and Malik Mustapha (knee) as starters to close the season.
They invested six of their eight picks on defensive players, including a Day 3 safety and Upton Stout in the third round as their new nickel cornerback. That might suggest the team understands they have holes on defense as an attempt to replace the lost defensive players.
The visual below shows the teams with the fewest fantasy points per drop-back against zone coverage.
The 49ers allowed the 13th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt while generating the second-lowest pressure rate. However, they were relatively decent against the pass, given the 14th-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Most notably, the 49ers allowed the fourth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when utilizing zone coverage.
The 49ers added a familiar face in Robert Saleh as their defensive coordinator. It’s hard to compare defenses since Saleh last coached for the 49ers in 2020. However, we know the Jets tended to use man coverage at the seventh-highest rate compared to the 49ers, as No. 10 in 2024. Based on their offseason moves, the 49ers’ defense could make some improvements as the season moves along.
Summary
After researching the 49ers, we could talk ourselves into considering streaming their defense against the Saints and Cardinals in Weeks 2 and 3. The 49ers also play the Seahawks in Week 1, which should be a close matchup, given the spread is under three points for division rivals. Based on the 2024 defensive data and the losses on their defense, the 49ers project as a team to avoid based on drafters picking them as a top-10 D/ST in ADP.
Arizona Cardinals D/ST
- Week 1: ARI at NO
- Week 2: ARI vs. CAR
- Week 3: ARI at SF
- Week 4: ARI vs. SEA
The Cardinals were better against the pass than the rush, and we’ve seen them pick up steam with them facing the Saints and Panthers in Weeks 1-2. They allowed the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt and pressured quarterbacks at the seventh-lowest percentage. Interestingly, they were relatively decent against the pass, ranking 12th in the fewest fantasy points per dropback.
The visual below shows the defenses sorted by the lowest pressure rate.
They used a zone-heavy approach, with zone coverage at the 14th-highest rate. Thankfully, they’ve limited fantasy points when deploying zone coverage, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per dropback. They’ve had some defensive personnel changes, involving the reunion of Calais Campbell and five defensive draft picks, two of which went on Day 2. Furthermore, the Cardinals added Josh Sweat, who might help to pressure quarterbacks.
Although the defense took a step forward in 2024, it remained somewhat of a bend-don’t-break type defense, as it allowed the 18th-most explosive pass play percentage while forcing offenses to check down the fifth-most. That’s typically not the type of defense we want for fantasy purposes unless they can generate turnovers and sacks, which seems unlikely with the low pressure rate.
Summary
The Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites in Week 1 and 4.5-point favorites in Week 2. Meanwhile, they’re 3.5-point underdogs in Week 3 and 2.5-point favorites in Week 4. It might make sense to stream the Cardinals for Week 1 and maybe Week 2. However, we’re looking for defenses that we could potentially ride for the first four weeks, which puts the Cardinals into the downgrade bucket.
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