DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Mexico Open At Vidanta With Tony Finau, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Stevens and More Golf Advice (2024)

February 19, 2024

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Mexico Open At Vidanta. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Mexico Open At Vidanta

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Mexico Open At Vidanta

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

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• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 136
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

Last Five Winners Of The Mexico Open At Vidanta

Expected Cut-Line 

Vidanta

7,456 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Paspalum

For a course that measures over 7,400 yards and delivers a heightened onslaught of second shots from distance, there still isn't much challenge to highlight at Vidanta.

Wide-open fairways and virtually no rough will turn this into a bomber's paradise. There are places to miss if you go incredibly wayward off the tee. However, golfers who can use their driver as a weapon will have an advantage in finding success.

The first point to note for that answer stems from the sticky, paspalum grass that removes rollout from the equation. While the expected driving distance will see a 14-yard increase over expectation, that grass-type factor, mixed with the venue being played at sea level, only further enhances the notion that you better be comfortable with a driver in hand.

We see that lack of ability to generate enough distance off-the-tee as far as you need to shrink the track when we received an astronomical 61.6% of second shots from beyond 175 yards last year, a total that placed 22.2% above the PGA Tour average projected influence. That requirement highlights a preferred plan of bomb-and-gouge meets long iron savants, although the last part of this solution may come down to the wind you always receive on a track near water.

Many secondary answers of scoring on long par-fours (seven over 445 yards) and things of that nature will be taken care of when you pinpoint that first step of the calculation, but don't get it twisted; this is a ball-strikers course that rewards length of all kind.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Total Driving + Weighted Proximity (30%)

Weighted Strokes Gained Total- Last 24 Rounds (10%)

Strokes Gained: Wind (10%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Fairways + Short Rough (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Proximity 175+ (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

The way I see it on Monday afternoon is that there are three real options to consider in the $10,000+ range. 

1. Tony Finau ($12,000) - Finau ranked first in my model throughout all three iterations of my build. The putter has remained ice-cold if you are trying to find a reason to avoid paying this exorbitant price tag, but the fact that DraftKings made him so expensive should make life a little easier. Anything that pushes less than 30% + should make Finau the deserving name to beat. 
2. Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700) - I remain a believer that markets have been too slow to react to Nicolai Hojgaard. Is Hojgaard Ludvig Aberg? No. However, the 22-year-old consistently grades as a top-25 talent on tour whenever I run my season-long builds. Look for Hojgaard's distance and quality long iron play to give him a real shot at this title. 
3. Thorbjørn Olesen ($10,300) - This would be GPP-only as a leverage option. I have little interest eleswhere. The price tag is too high since Olesen should be below an option like Stephan Jaeger ($9,800), but if the entire industry decides to fade him, I will take a shot on a golfer who still graded sixth overall inside of my model and 12th for upside. As an industry, we sometimes overproject the difference between the 12th golfer and those above him. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

The two most mispriced players in this section for me were Stephan Jaeger ($9,800) and Ryo Hisatsune ($9,200).

Jaeger led the field in consecutive cuts made at 21 and delivered credible course history after generating back-to-back top-18 place finishes at Vidanta. When we add that to his third-place grade when combining total driving and weighted proximity, there is a solid argument to be made that the 34-year-old should have landed behind only Tony Finau and Nicolai Hojgaard on the board.

It took less than five minutes for us to shift the Ryo Hisatsune price over Mackenzie Hughes on BetOnline in the head-to-head market by over 20 points. Getting ahead of those movements is one of the things that makes the RotoBaller premium subscription so worthwhile, but there are a ton of ways to consider Hisatsune this week. The 21-year-old has already shown immense upside early in his career, and the weighted scoring inside of my model delivered a pronounced return when he graded first in this field. Don't be shocked if Hisatsune works his way into the next elevated event, perhaps by winning this week.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I am making a concerted effort this week to condense the article into one or two targets per section versus the general talk about each tier we have had lately. I believe both routes are useful when constructing builds, but the two names for me in the $8,000s would be Davis Thompson ($8,900) and Austin Eckroat ($8,000).

Thompson graded first in my model when combining weighted total driving and proximity for Vidanta, and the additional high-end grades for weighted scoring and recent strokes gained total will only heighten the upside for one of the more aggressive players in this field. Thompson should be able to use his youth and distance as a massive advantage.

Eckroat was an interesting name because while he lacked top-tier upside in any one area, the overall safety was heightened throughout my sheet. When I took the lowest grade that he possessed over seven categories and made a filter for all other players in the field to at least match that low-end mark, it left us with the following five golfers.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I do like the boom-or-bust nature of Nate Lashley as an outright bet, but the two names that caught my eye early in the week for DFS were Sam Stevens ($7,100) and Carson Young ($7,400). 

Stevens was the highest-rated player that I had in the $7,000+ section. The price at $7,100 made him the best value on the board for me of any golfer from a section we have discussed. My model thought he should have been over $1,000 more expensive than this going rate. 

Young has quietly re-entered a return that will place him closer to his form in 2023 when everything was clicking on all cylinders. His three made cuts since the American Express will give him a higher ceiling than this price. 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Parker Coody ($6,500) and Joseph Bramlett ($6,800) were two golfers who had a ceiling that intrigued me in Mexico. The floor had some questions, but what golfer in the $6,000 range wouldn't?

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