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Jamie's top DraftKings NBA DFS picks for today, Monday, 12/16/24. His favorite daily fantasy basketball lineup sleepers and value picks for DraftKings DFS.
This has been a lousy week for DFS NBA, hasn't it? The NBA Cup playoff games have been exciting, but I'm over the two- or three-game slates and am eager to get back to some real play. Tonight we get a six-game dance card before the NBA Cup final tomorrow, and then it's back to business as usual on Thursday (with 13 games!).
I need a bounceback tonight after making every possible wrong decision in DFS NFL yesterday, so let's get right to it. There is one expensive player we're going to want to build around (spoiler alert - it's Jokic), so finding values among the six games is going to be key. Be sure to join us in RotoBaller Discord as we help you build for cash and GPPs.
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DraftKings NBA DFS Core Picks
Nikola Jokic, DEN - C ($12,200)
There are times when a $12.2k price tag is worth it and there are times when it's not. This is one where it is, and I'm beginning this article strongly urging you to do whatever it takes to get Jokic in your lineups. As of right now, tightened rotations of Brooklyn and Philadelphia should make it very doable.
Not only is Jokic the best player in fantasy basketball, but none of his immediate competition for the title (Doncic, Giannis, SGA...) are also playing tonight. This puts him in at least a tier of his own, and you could even argue he's two full tiers above the competition. Jokic averages 69.5 DK PPG, which is almost 20 points higher than the slate's next-best player average (Cade Cunningham - 50.4).
Denver and Sacramento is a sneaky pace game, with the Nuggets ranking fourth and the Kings 11th in pace factor, and Jokic can only benefit from the added touches of a fast game.
Domantas Sabonis, SAC - C ($9,700)
The other top play will be directly opposing Jokic on the other side of the ball. After posting an unreal 77 double-doubles in the 2023-24 season (and 65 the year before), Damontas Sabonis has only two games so far this year without one. He's as consistent as it gets, and routinely flashes a ceiling as well (went 32-20 last game).
Jokic on the other side of the ball always poses some foul risk for the opposing center, but it's not enough to scare you off a $9,700 price tag for Sabonis. The pace boost will suit Sabonis well, and Denver is allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing centers despite Jokic's strong play.
Others Under Consideration: Cade Cunningham, DET - PG ($9,600), RJ Barrett, TOR - SF/PF ($9,100), Tyrese Maxey, PHI - PG ($8,800), Paul George, PHI - SF/PF ($8,300)
DraftKings NBA DFS Tournament Pivots
James Harden, LAC - PG/SG ($9,200)
Is Father Time finally catching up with James Harden? It certainly looks that way with his putrid 35.4% FG% in December. For that reason, he's not a cash play. However, the ceiling still exists, as he's only four games removed from a 70.75-point outing on 12/1 against Denver.
"Guards versus Utah" has been a thing for several years now, and this season is no exception. The Jazz are tenth in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency and are once again more susceptible to guard play. They've allowed the third most FPPG to the G position, along with the third most assists and the fourth most drives per game.
Harden needs his shot to catch fire for a ceiling game, but this is a prime environment to take a shot in GPPs.
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DraftKings NBA DFS Value Picks
Cameron Johnson, BKN - SF/PF ($7,200)
$7,200 is not a typical "value" price, but for the role Cameron Johnson is about to inherit he may be underpriced. Cam Thomas remains out and Dennis Schroder was just traded away to Golden State, creating a void of not only the two highest-usage players but also the most shots taken.
Ziaire Williams will also miss this game, and with those three off the court, Cam Johnson is averaging 6.55 more DK PPG. Another key stat is his 23.3% assist rate with those players off, which is 7% higher than with them on. Brooklyn has used a lot of players this year so it might be a crapshoot at first, but Johnson is the most stable player and will get mid- to high-30s minutes.
Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI - SG ($5,800)
Philadelphia is dealing with some key injuries tonight, headlined by Joel Embiid in what looks to be just a lost season for him. In addition, however, rookie sensation Jared McCain will be sidelined indefinitely with a lateral meniscus tear, creating usage and shot boosts throughout the rest of the lineup.
It's a bit of a pain that Kelly Oubre is only SG-eligible, but his recent rebounding spike mitigates the slight issue of position eligibility. Oubre has three straight double-doubles and has played 35+ minutes in four straight. The fact that he's not a one-dimensional player lately bodes well for his DFS floor/ceiling, and Charlotte is 20th in overall defensive efficiency.
Andre Drummond, PHI - C ($5,500)
This is a tougher call on a Philly value, as Gerschon Yabusele could be a bigger beneficiary. However, Andre Drummond continues to rebound at an elite rate (21.86% rebounding rate this season), and the 76ers have shown that they aren't averse to overlapping Drummond and Yabusele.
"Center versus Charlotte" has been a profitable source of fantasy points for a lengthy period, and Drummond could smash his value threshold even if he only gets 24-26 minutes. With Joel Embiid out, both Drummond and Yabusele can be used as a safe source of value.
Others Under Consideration: Gradey Dick, TOR - SG ($5,900), Gerschon Yabusele, PHI - PF/C ($5,200), Caris LeVert, CLE (PG/SG) - $5,000, Malik Beasley, DET - SG/SF ($4,600), Jonathan Mogbo, TOR - PF/C ($4,400), Tyrese Martin, BKN - SG/SF ($4,000)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stack
Bulls at Raptors (240.5 O/U)
The Nuggets and Kings offer the best combination of "good basketball and fantasy basketball", but stacking it is virtually impossible with the two best players (Jokic and Sabonis) eating up a combined $21,900 of your salary). Chicago/Toronto, however, will offer some cheap upside players that allow you to fully stack the game.
For Chicago, any combination of Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Coby White, and Josh Giddey works fine. Vucevic is expected back while LaVine looks to have a true questionable tag. If he's out, bump the other players.
R.J. Barrett's usage rate is almost 35% with Scottie Barnes off the court, and his price is JUST expensive enough that his ownership shouldn't spike. Jakob Poeltl, Gradey Dick, Jonathan Mogbo, and Jakobe Walker all offer their own upside at affordable price tags and can be included in full game stacks.
Chicago is first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and Toronto is ninth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. Giddy up! (Giddey up?) <insert drum hit here> 🙂
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite OVERALL play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: R.J. Barrett
- My favorite VALUE play: Kelly Oubre Jr.
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