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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Paris: Moicano vs. Saint Denis on 09/28/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After a week-long break, the UFC returns to the Accor Arena in Paris this Saturday. The event will mark the promotion's third visit to Paris and first since UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac in September 2023. A lightweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis headlines UFC Paris. Before that bout, the co-main event of the UFC’s 2024 Paris fight card is a middleweight scrap between two middleweight contenders, Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen.
The main card also has William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito, Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle, Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda, and Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola. The “Prelims” headliner is veteran light heavyweight Ion Cutelaba versus KSW favorite Ivan Erslan, who will be making his UFC debut. Undefeated prospect Oumar Sy is also on the prelims and he is scheduled to face off against Da Woon Jung.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Paris: Moicano vs. Saint Denis on 9/28/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Benoit Saint Denis, $9,000 - vs. Renato Moicano
On Saturday, in the main event of UFC Paris, Benoit Saint Denis faces always dangerous Renato Moicano at 155 pounds. This lightweight bout is a critical matchup for both fighters. Before his last bout, Saint Denis was on a tear, winning five bouts in a row. Saint Denis will be fighting on home turf in Paris and this will be his first main event in the UFC.
That's a WRAP on #UFCParis media day! 🎬 pic.twitter.com/d0RVR8z0ix
— UFC (@ufc) September 25, 2024
Moicano is finding success in the lightweight division after competing for years as a featherweight fighter. The former featherweight picked up impressive victories over Brad Riddell and Drew Dober before earning himself a comeback victory to stop Jalin Turner at UFC 300. The winner of this fight is likely going to be facing a top-5 opponent next.
Saint Denis is famous for his relentless and aggressive style. He has a well-rounded game, solid wrestling, and a ton of power. He has a 100% finish rate in the UFC, making him a high-risk, high-reward DFS pick. His recent loss against former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier demonstrated his ability to handle high-level competition.
Moicano comes into this fight riding a three-fight winning streak with two of his last three wins coming inside the distance. His game revolves around grappling and submission. He is a black belt in BJJ, and he’s well-versed in Muay Thai striking. Moicano has 10 submission wins to his name, one knockout and eight wins via decision.
Saint Denis lands 5.70 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 54%. He's absorbing 4.98 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 42%. He averages 4.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and his takedown accuracy is at 37%, with his takedown defense being 69%.
On the other hand, Moicano lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute with his striking accuracy being at 48%. He's absorbing 3.68 strikes per minute and has some of the division’s best striking defense, at 60%. He averages 1.98 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and his takedown accuracy is at 45%. His takedown defense is at 72%.
In this fight, I think, we're going to see Saint Denis and Moicano engage in a striking battle with little grappling. The only way I see Moicano win this fight is via submission and Saint Denis has never been submitted. Saint Denis is a younger man by six years. Saint Denis is better almost everywhere, especially on his feet, and that is the reason I think Saint Denis is going to keep this fight standing and find a way to knock out Moicano. I predict Saint Denis will win this one via second-round TKO.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nassourdine Imavov, $8,900 - vs. Brendan Allen
This weekend, middleweights Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen are scheduled for a three-round bout in the co-main event of UFC Paris. Imavov enters Saturday’s card riding a two-fight winning streak. He's coming off a controversial finish over Jared Cannonier that was arguably an early stoppage, as well as a majority decision over Roman Dolidze. Before that, Imavov faced Chris Curtis in a bout that was declared "NC" due to an accidental clash of heads.
His opponent, Brendan Allen, enters this bout riding a seven-fight win streak that includes five submission wins. He holds wins over notable names such as Andre Muniz, Bruno Silva, and Paul Craig. Allen is hoping to win impressively, enough to make a case for a title shot.
Known as a striker, Imavov enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-4 and he is 6-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. His striking defense is at 59% and he absorbs 3.33 strikes per minute. When it comes to his wrestling, Imavov has a takedown accuracy of 36% and his takedown defense is 74%.
Allen enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-5 and is 13-2 in the UFC. Known for his exceptional grappling and submission game, Allen's takedown accuracy is at 47% and his takedown defense is at 58%. He's averaging 1.74 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same period. While improving on the feet, Allen still lacks the skills as a striker that Imavov has. He lands 3.98 strikes per minute and has a 53% striking accuracy.
Imavov’s striking precision versus Allen’s grappling-heavy approach sets up a classic clash of styles. Allen will look to utilize his superior jiu-jitsu game while Imavov will try to keep this fight standing. While Imavov’s recent experience against top-tier opponents gives him a bit of an edge, Allen’s momentum and submission threat cannot be overlooked.
That being said, Imavov's grappling is severely underrated and I don't see Allen finishing him on the ground. Allen has been hurt by fighters who aren't as technical as Imavov and I think Imavov will be able to keep him at range and piece him up. My prediction is that Imavov wins this fight via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bryan Battle, $8,500 - vs. Kevin Jousset
An interesting welterweight bout takes place on the main card as Bryan Battle takes on Kevin Jousset in a three-round bout. Jousset enters this bout on a five-fight winning streak while Battle, who is coming off a No Contest against Ange Loosa in March due to an accidental eye poke, is looking to get back in the win column.
Before his last bout, Battle had a UFC record of five wins and one loss and was on a two-fight winning streak. Since dropping down to welterweight, Battle has gone 3-1 (1NC). In reality, Battle should be on a three-fight winning streak; however, due to an accidental eye poke and Loosa not being able to continue the fight, the fight was declared a No Contest.
Last year, Jousset made his UFC debut against Kiefer Crosbie in which he scored a first-round rear-naked choke. He faced off against Kenan Song in his last bout and he managed to win via unanimous decision. He trains out of the renowned City Kickboxing gym and he likes to keep the fight on the feet as he primarily relies on his striking.
Compared to Jousset, Battle possesses a more diverse skill set and is considered to be a well-rounded fighter. While in the UFC, Battle defeated Gilbert Urbina, Tresean Gore, Takashi Sato, Gabe Green, and AJ Fletcher. He delivers a high output on the feet, which is also paired with incredible durability and has never seen him suffer a knockout.
Jousset is averaging 8.23 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He's absorbing 5.10 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 53%. When it comes to his grappling, Jousset is averaging 1.51 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 66% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Battle enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-2 and is 5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.52 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Battle is absorbing 3.74 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 44%. When it comes to his grappling, Battle is averaging 1.12 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 28% and a takedown defense of 47%.
While Jousset's striking may present some problems for Battle early on, Battle has demonstrated the ability to adapt as the fight goes on. Jousset is a better technical striker than Battle but Battle packs more power in his punches. Jousset is likely not going for a takedown, so I expect this to mostly play out on the feet.
At some point, Battle is likely going to shoot for a takedown and I see him taking down Jousset and dominating him on the mat. My prediction is that Battle finds a way to win this fight via unanimous decision.
