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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 on 03/27/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After the ridiculous card the UFC put together for its 259th event just a couple of weeks ago, it was always going to be impossible to have another "numbered" card of such magnitude. Just remember, we enjoyed three title-fights back on March 6 and the one in the main event featured two actual champs going against each other as Israel Adesanya went up a division to face Jan Blachowicz. Insane in the brain.
That doesn't mean this weekend's card lacks fireworks. In fact, the main card only features four fights yet they are top-to-bottom packed of talent, and the heaviest of belts is once more on the line, and in a rematch no less. Miocic and Ngannou will do it again and for the second time since they first met inside the octagon all the way back in January of 2018 when the former defeatured Francis in a 25-minute bout that went to decision. Not only will we close the night with that incredible fight, but we'll get to watch former-champ (and no. 7 WW) Tyron Woodley face no. 10 WW Vicente Luque, O'Malley and Almeida trying to regain steam, and a couple of still-fresh fighters in Worthy and Mullarkey face each other on the lightweight beat.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 on 03/27/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Francis Ngannou, $8400- vs. Stipe Miocic (C)
No need for lights on Saturday night because these two will definitely bring some fireworks. Uh, oh. We're getting a rematch to the first fight between Ngannou and current-champ Miocic that took place all the way back in January 2018. And if we're honest, these two are entering those two after putting on very very great runs each.
Miocic got the best of Ngannou, though it took him the full five rounds of the bout to get there. Miocic had KO'd all five of his prior foes, four of them in less than 5 minutes. While Miocic proceeded to lose the title to Daniel Cormier just six months later, he regained the belt in a re-do in Aug. 2019 and he successfully defended in the third installment of that trilogy back on in August of last year.
Ngannou's ascension to the title-fight was impressive, with six finishes (five KOs, one sub) prior to that. Same as Miocic, Francis lost the next bout to that title fight (Derrick Lewis) but has now won four in a row via KO--the longest taking all of 1:11 minutes (!!!) of octagon time. Ngannou seems to be riding his utmost peak, enters this fight as confident as ever, and Miocic (although winning those Cormier series 2-1) seems to be going down and nearing his retirement. Gotta go with Ngoannou, though Miocic is a fairly valuable play given his low salary and recent outcomes.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vicente Luque, $9100 - vs. Tyron Woodley
No newcomers in this fight, but two men on very different paths of late. Tyron Woodley is one of the best to ever do it in the UFC. He's got six title-fights to his name already, all of them taking place not long ago in the 2016-to-2019 span. He first defeated Robbie Lawler, defended the belt successfully four times, then ultimately dropped it against mighty Kamaru Usman (this man, in case you don't know, has yet to lose a UFC fight...). The problem for Woodley is his current three-fight losing streak, dropping his two 2020 fights against Burns and Covington via decision and KO respectively.
Luque, on the other hand, will get inside the octagon for the first time since Aug. 2020 carrying a two-fight winning streak and an 8-1 overall record from Oct. 2017 on. Luque is on an opposite run as that of Woodley, and it shows. Yes, he lost one to Stephen Thompson, but that fight went to the judges' scorecards and he has finished all of the other eight fighters he's dealt with in the last three years (7 KOs, one sub).
It is too obvious and boring to pick Luque here, but it is also the most reasonable outcome we'll see on Saturday. Woodley, though, might be appealing for those spending big bucks in the rest of the lineup spots as he comes with the second-lowest salary and is not entirely out of the equation. That being said, I consider Luque a lock to rack up fantasy points, finish Woodley early, and be a bonafide winning-play this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sean O'Malley, $9200 - vs. Thomas Almeida
Speaking of winning plays... Sean O'Malley has the highest salary of this weekend's slate. Almeida, on the other hand, has the lowest. Sean is currently boasting a ridiculous 76% winning probability against Thomas, and even though his price is sky-high he's still the second most-rostered fighter in DK at the time of this writing. Build around Sean, folks.
O'Malley debuted in 2018 with a decision W, and then was out of the circuit for a couple of years. He got a booming return, though, fighting three times in 2020 to close the year with a 2-1 record--all of the three fights ending in KOs. While he dropped his last one against Marlon Vera, everybody expects Sean to get back to the W column come Saturday night...
...in great part because Almeida has sucked in his last fights. See, Almeida also fought in Jan. 2018 and then stayed out until October of last year. He's stuck in a three-fight losing streak that started in 2017, sandwiching a KO loss between two decision Ls. Even going the distance in those two fights and staying alive for 7+ minutes before getting KO'd by Rob Font, all Almeida has done is topping at 36 FP. Ugh. O'Malley projects to almost 100 (!) FP on the day, so even if the salary is super high you should be getting his body in your lineup no matter what.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jamie Mullarkey, $7600 - vs. Khama Worthy
A fight for a man's life! Yesss! Jamie Mullarkey is getting into the octagon for the third time under the UFC banner and for the third time in the past three years too. He did so in Oct. 2019 and Oct. 2020, dropped both of those fights via decision, and is looking at a potential 0-3 record that would leave him hanging on a very worrying situation going forward. Mullarkey wasn't that bad in those two losses, more than anything when it came to the ground game as he pulled off 8-of-26 TD attempts, but ultimately those amounted to a whole lot of nothing.
Worthy, while having lost his last fight in just 1:33 minutes back in September of last year, still has a couple of wins to his name coming last June and in Aug. 2019, in which he was able to finish his two foes early via one KO and one submission. Worthy isn't going to pursue takedowns, as he has a grand total of attempts in his three-fight UFC career, but he can catch anyone and put up the Sub as he did to Luis Pena the last June.
Worthy's upside has come from the bonus points he's earned by virtue of finishing both of his rivals, while Mullarkey has still been able to put up some relatively good fantasy numbers even on two losses. This looks close on paper, both fighters are in the 48-to-58% probability of winning this one, yet the salaries are widely separated. I'd go with the cheap dog here and hope for an upset, which doesn't feel too crazy to think about.
