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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing 10-game matinee mix on DraftKings and an 11-game grouping on FanDuel, which includes the Coors Field game. The weather looks like it could get tricky today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/11/2023 and the slate locking at 12:40 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. MIN ($11,400 DK, $11,400 FD)
Without a doubt, Kevin Gausman is the top pitching play on this slate. He's coming off back-to-back 11-plus strikeout performances and has accrued at least 24 DK points in five of his last six outings. Overall, Gausman carries a 3.19 xERA and 2.53 xFIP, including a .282 xwOBA, a 5.5% walk rate, and an elite 34.3% strikeout rate. He has been blown up a couple of times this season, so Gausman is not without risk, but his ceiling is unrivaled today.
Gausman will square off with the Twins on Sunday. Minnesota scores 4.3 runs per game, but this version of their lineup is watered down without Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. They strike out at a league-worst 26.7% rate against right-handed pitchers and carry just a .678 OPS against them since the beginning of May.
Between a personal string of dominance and a favorable matchup, Gausman looks poised to be the slate's high scorer. Despite the expensive price, he will be very popular.
Mitch Keller, PIT vs. NYM ($10,400 DK, $10,300 FD)
Keller opened his 2023 campaign as one of the league's most dominant pitchers. He's faltered over his past three outings, surrendering 15 total earned runs over 17 1/3 innings pitched. That said, Keller's overall numbers continue to encourage. He sports a strong 3.49 xERA and 3.23 xFIP. That includes a .294 xwOBA, 33.3% hard-hit rate, 86.8 mph average exit velocity, 6.3% walk rate, and a 28.3% strikeout rate. Despite his recent struggles, Keller's ceiling remains about as high as any other pitcher.
The Mets present an unexpectedly appealing matchup for Keller. They score a middling 4.4 runs per game on the season, but their struggles have worsened recently. Since the beginning of May, the Mets own an unimpressive .713 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a .165 ISO and .312 wOBA. To further complicate matters, Pete Alonso just landed on the injured list. Outside of Francisco Alvarez's recent offensive surge, there's not a lot of consistent production in the Mets' lineup.
This looks like a promising opportunity for Keller to get back on track. Keller isn't a cheap player to roster, but he'll be a worthwhile tournament play and pivot from a presumably chalky Kevin Gausman.
Also consider: Shane McClanahan, Hunter Greene, Freddy Peralta
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bo Bichette – SS, TOR vs. Louie Varland ($5,300 DK, $3,600 FD)
Bichette is enjoying a phenomenal season, slashing .323/.355/.518 with 14 home runs. He ranks in the 99th percentile among all hitters with a .327 xBA, alongside similarly impressive numbers like a .545 xSLG, .388 xwOBA, 92 mph average exit velocity, and a 47.4% hard-hit rate. Bichette is as dominant as they come at shortstop, and he even feels slightly underpriced today.
Louie Varland has been touched up a considerable amount this season. He sports a 4.80 xERA, which includes a .486 xSLG and a 10.8% barrel rate. Varland has been vulnerable to batters of all handedness, but in regard to Bichette, right-handed hitters have slugged .480 against him with a .334 wOBA and eight home runs this season.
Isaac Paredes – 3B, TB vs. Martin Perez ($4,200 DK, $3,200 FD)
Paredes is effectively a left-handed hitting specialist. He's batting .326 against southpaws this season, including a .522 slugging percentage, .196 ISO, and 163 wRC+.
Martin Perez is coming off a strong outing, but negative regression is closing in. He carries a 4.93 xERA and 4.76 xFIP, including a .461 xSLG, .344 xwOBA, and .283 xBA. Perez has been touched up by lefties and righties equally in 2023, but right-handed hitters are his weakness historically, and they have swatted nine home runs against him this season.
Josh Naylor – 1B, CLE vs. Brandon Bielak ($3,400 DK, $3,100 FD)
Naylor has caught fire in June. He's hit safely in 10 consecutive games entering today, including five straight multi-hit performances. Following a slow start to the season, Naylor was overdue for massive positive regression. He sports a phenomenal .300 xBA, .528 xSLG, .372 xwOBA, 47% hard-hit rate, and 11.6% barrel rate.
On the flip side of regression, Brandon Bielak has got some negative regression coming his way. In sharp contrast to his surface level 3.35 ERA, Bielak carries a 5.65 xERA. That includes a .504 xSLG, 50% hard-hit rate, and 13.6% barrel rate. These expected results are bound to catch up to Bielak soon.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. – OF, ATL vs. Trevor Williams ($6,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
Any day is a good day to play Acuna, and today is certainly no exception. He leads the majors with a .343 xBA and trails only Aaron Judge with his .637 xSLG and .447 xwOBA. Acuna also sports similarly outstanding figures, like a 54.4% hard-hit rate, 94.8 mph average exit velocity, and 15.3% barrel rate. Altogether, that amounts to a 152 OPS+, 12 home runs, and 28 stolen bases.
Right-handed batters are slugging .523 with eight home runs against Trevor Williams this season. He sports a decent enough 4.15 ERA, but the expected results are much worse. Williams carries a 5.51 xERA, .514 xSLG, .361 xwOBA, and 13.3% barrel rate.
Luis Robert Jr. – OF, CWS vs. Braxton Garrett ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD)
Having thus far avoided missing any significant time due to injury, Robert has already set a new career-high with 14 home runs in 2023. He sports a .477 xSLG and 13.1% barrel rate. Robert is particularly dominant against left-handed pitchers, slugging .721 with a .326 ISO and 233 wRC+.
Braxton Garrett carries a 5.12 xERA through 12 outings, alongside a .485 xSLG, 46.6% hard-hit rate, 91.1 mph average exit velocity, and 9.8% barrel rate. Right-handed batters are slugging .486 against him with a .346 wOBA and seven home runs.
Joey Wiemer – OF, MIL vs. JP Sears ($2,700 DK, $2,900 FD)
Milwaukee has been one of the league's worst teams against left-handed pitching, but Wiemer has been a rare bright spot. He's slugging .736 with a .396 ISO and five home runs against southpaws. The rookie has caught fire of late, having just broken a nine-game hitting streak. He's an excellent value play.
JP Sears has surrendered 13 home runs to right-handed batters this season, including a .469 slugging percentage. He sports a mediocre 4.20 ERA, but his 4.73 xERA, .338 xwOBA, .465 xSLG, and 12.1% barrel rate suggest tough times are ahead for Sears.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Williams
The Braves look great in this spot. Their high-powered offense scores 5.2 runs per game. That includes a strong .764 OPS and .189 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Atlanta's roster options range from premium bats like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson to midrange and discount plays like Sean Murphy and Eddie Rosario. Full stacks or mini stacks will be accessible.
Trevor Williams has been touched up this season, but not nearly as much as he should be. He carries a manageable 4.15 ERA, but his 5.51 xERA illustrates how lucky he's been. Williams has surrendered a .514 xSLG, .361 xwOBA, .276 xBA, and 13.3% barrel rate. It's unlikely he makes it through this outing unscathed. Once his day is done, Washington's bullpen offers a 4.84 ERA, the fourth-worst in baseball.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy
Chicago White Sox vs. Braxton Garrett
In contrast to the premium stacks and expensive arms we want to get in our lineups today, the White Sox are here for salary relief. They've underwhelmed as a whole this season, but Chicago can hit left-handed pitchers with the best. Since the beginning of May, they sport a fantastic .803 OPS against southpaws, including a .173 ISO and 123 wRC+. They're likely without Eloy Jimenez today, but there's enough firepower in this lineup to work with.
Braxton Garrett carries a 5.12 xERA. That includes a .485 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, 46.6% hard-hit rate, .287 xBA, 9.8% barrel rate, and 91.1 mph average exit velocity. His struggles are largely concentrated on right-handed hitters, which works out perfectly for a righty-dominated White Sox lineup.
Favorite Plays: Luis Robert Jr., Jake Burger, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal
Also Consider: Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres (FD only)
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