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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on October 12th, 2022. Juan Carlos Blanco's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome back to another edition of the FREE DraftKings and FanDuel MLB DFS picks. We're now in the thick of the Divisional Series in each circuit, and Wednesday features a two-game NLDS slate. Naturally, scoring tends to be much more on the lower side during the postseason as the top tier of pitchers take the mound, so we'll rely a bit on the prior individual history between hitters and hurlers, as well as on a variety of splits, as usual.
The player pool is obviously a lot narrower than usual as well, so differentiating in tournaments can be a bit trickier than usual. Additionally, on a two-game slate like Wednesday's, there's virtually no way to avoid rostering at least a couple of hitters against your starting pitcher (s), but it's still a viable strategy if you pick your spots carefully.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 10/12/2022 for the two-game slate locking at 4:35 pm ET. The lineup will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter and ask away!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Clayton Kershaw - LAD vs. SDP ($8,600 DK, $10,500 FD)
Kershaw's 2.28 ERA and 0.94 WHIP were his lowest figures since 2016 and were accompanied by a stellar 12-3 record and a solid 27.8 percent strikeout rate. The legendary lefty finished the regular season with five straight wins as well, a stretch during which he pitched to a 1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9 across 30 innings. He last pitched a week ago and is facing a Padres team whose current bats he's held to a collective .180 average and .547 OPS across 208 career encounters.
San Diego went into Tuesday's Game 1 coming off a productive offensive display in the wild-card round against the Mets, but Kershaw pitched to an 0.75 ERA against them in 12 innings across two starts this season. The Friars had a decent second half against lefties (.313 wOBA) and finished especially strong against southpaws on the road in the last month, but Kershaw posted a 6-0 record, 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, and 0.8 HR/9 across 64 innings at Dodger Stadium this season.
Kyle Wright - ATL vs. PHI ($6,700 DK, $9,500 FD)
Wright's breakout season saw him finally deliver on his vast potential, as he finished with a 21-5 mark, 3.19 ERA, and a career-high 12.2 percent swinging strike rate. The right-hander was especially effective at home, posting a 13-2 record, 2.86 ERA, and 0.8 HR/9 across 103.2 innings. He generated positive results in three starts against the Phillies as well, recording a 2-1 record and a 2.84 ERA across 19 innings.
Current Phillies bats own a collective .159 average and middling .672 OPS against Wright in 84 career encounters. Atlanta was also 6-3 overall against Philadelphia at Truist Park in the regular season, and although Wright has had some trouble with a couple of Phillies hitters in the past (more on that a bit later), his overall body of work and the fact he'll be pitching with an abundance of rest after lasting taking the hill on Oct. 1 make him an excellent option on the small slate at his salaries.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Travis d'Arnaud - C/1B, ATL vs. Zack Wheeler ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD)
As alluded to earlier, sometimes one of the metrics you have to lean on a bit heavier in the postseason with so many quality pitchers in action is a hitter's personal history against them, and d'Arnaud is a prominent example in that regard. As talented as Wheeler is, d'Arnaud has punished him for a .467 average with a double, a homer, and only two strikeouts in 17 career encounters. The veteran also finished the regular season with a career-high 18 homers and 44 extra-base hits overall, and he opened the postseason Tuesday by going 2-for-5 with a double, a homer, and three RBI.
Wheeler's one poor split also happens to be against right-handed hitters on the road, where he gave up a .300 average, .789 OPS, and .339 wOBA. Then, he surrendered a .351 average and .350 wOBA in that split with men on base specifically; meanwhile, d'Arnaud generated a .339 average, 1.035 OPS, .440 wOBA, and .350 ISO in the 64 plate appearances he logged against righties at home with men on base, making it an ideal match for DFS purposes.
Orlando Arcia - 2B, ATL vs. Zack Wheeler ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD
Arcia got on base twice via walk in Game 1 on Tuesday, and he demonstrated some nice pop this season with 18 extra-base hits (out of 51 total) and a co-career-high .416 slugging percentage. The veteran also happens to be another member of the Braves that has enjoyed a decent amount of success against Wheeler, posting a .375 average with a homer in eight career plate appearances versus the Phillies starter.
Arcia brings the added bonus of a solid 9.0 percent walk rate and relatively modest 21.8 percent strikeout rate, and he generated a .276 average and .348 wOBA against righties in his home park. And, he's another Braves hitter that may very well be able to exploit Wheeler's issues in same-handed road matchups with men on base -- Arcia posted a .346 average and .496 wOBA with men on against righties at home across 29 plate appearances this season.
Trea Turner - SS, LAD vs. Yu Darvish ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD)
Turner turned in an MVP-caliber season that included a career-high 39 doubles and 100 RBI, along with the highly appealing combination of 21 homers and 27 steals (30 attempts). The star shortstop also checks in with a strong prior body of work against Darvish, who he's tormented to the tune of a .353 average with a pair of two-baggers and a homer in 17 career plate appearances. Turner also thrived against Padres pitching in general this season, producing a .316 average, .830 OPS, eight extra-base hits, and 14 RBI in 83 plate appearances.
Turner was already at it again in Game 1 on Tuesday night, doubling and homering off Mike Clevinger in his first two plate appearances as of this writing. The success against a righty at Dodger Stadium is nothing new for Turner, who posted a .295 average, .794 OPS, and .346 wOBA in that split during the regular season. Meanwhile, Darvish was somewhat hittable by right-handed hitters on the road, as they got to him for a .274 average and six homers across a 201-batter sample.
Manny Machado - 3B, SDP at Clayton Kershaw ($5,200 DK, $4,300 FD)
Machado is one of those exceptions that's worth rolling out in the same lineup as your starting pitcher, as he's capable of doing damage with one swing of the bat. The veteran infielder is coming off another outstanding season that saw him slash .298/.366/.531 with the second-most extra-base hits of his career (70) and 102 RBI. He then closed out the wild-card series against the Mets with a 2-for-5 night that included a double and an RBI, and he does have three career homers against Kershaw in 35 career encounters.
Machado finished with some very drastic home/road splits against lefties this season that saw him succeed much more versus southpaws at Petco Park. But, he still managed a solid 21.7 percent line-drive rate versus lefties on the road. Additionally, he happens to be an excellent hitter against Kershaw's top pitch, the slider, crushing that offering for a .902 OPS and .384 wOBA.
Other options: Freddie Freeman - 1B, LAD vs. Yu Darvish ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD)
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bryce Harper - PHI at Kyle Wright ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD)
Harper is one of two Phillies bats that is worth considering against Wright, due to both his ample talent and his prior history against the Braves starter. Harper was able to get 35 games' worth of action at the end of the season to get reacclimated after an extensive IL stint due to a fractured left thumb, and he then homered in the deciding Game 2 of the Wild-Card series over the Cardinals. He carried the momentum into Tuesday's Game 1 win over Atlanta, going 3-for-3 with a double, a walk, and a run.
Wright gave up a .249 average, .318 wOBA, and 1.3 HR/9 to left-handed hitters at Truist Park, while Harper was excellent against right-handed pitching on the road. The lefty-swinging slugger tormented righties when traveling for a .302 average, .858 OPS, and .362 wOBA, along with a 24.2 percent line-drive rate and 39.7 percent hard-contact rate. Harper also gives Wright very little off-ramp in terms of pitch selection against him, as he owns respective .341, .464, and .355 wOBAs against the curve, four-seam fastball, and changeup, three of Wright's top four pitches.
Mookie Betts - LAD vs. Yu Darvish ($5,700 DK, $4,400 FD)
Betts has an interesting prior body of work against Darvish -- despite an unsightly .192 average against the veteran in 28 plate appearances -- he sports a .423 slugging percentage thanks to four of his five hits in the sample going for extra bases. Additionally, Betts has only struck out six times in that span, meaning he may have been victimized a few times by some poor luck when putting the ball in play.
The star outfielder is coming off having slugged a career-high 35 homers this season, and he was outstanding against Padres pitching with a .361 average, a 1.179 OPS, and 14 extra-base hits in 75 plate appearances. Darvish's vulnerabilities against right-handed hitters on the road were already detailed in Turner's entry, while Betts posted a .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching at home. He generated a .372 wOBA, .254 ISO, and .871 OPS at Dodger Stadium overall, which, when combined with his aforementioned track record against other Padres pitchers other than Darvish, makes him a very high-upside play.
Nick Castellanos - PHI at Kyle Wright ($3,600 DK, $2,500 FD)
Castellanos was the star of the Phillies' Game 1 win Tuesday, going 3-for-5 with a double and three RBI overall. The slugger did have a down year power-wise with only 13 homers in 136 games, but he still carries plenty of upside and was at his best against right-handed pitching on the road. Castellanos generated a .284 average and .739 OPS in that split, along with an above-average 22.1 percent line-drive rate.
Castellanos was also a very good performer against two of Wright's top three pitches, the four-seam, and the sinker, posting respective .368 and .333 wOBAs against those offerings. Wright was very effective in same-handed matchups at home, but the upside Castellanos offers at his very modest salaries certainly makes him a viable value option if you want to load up elsewhere.
Other options: Michael Harris II - ATL vs. Zack Wheeler ($4,400 DK, $3,700 FD)
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