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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the PGA Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - PGA Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Southern Hills
7,556 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
For the fifth time in PGA Championship history, Southern Hills will be the host venue for the week, but you might want to throw out some of what you think you know from past iterations because of the restorations that have taken place over the past few years.
Measuring in as a 7,556-yard Par 70, the property might not always play to the exact specifications of the scorecard, but the hilly terrain and rolling hills will create this uneven lie extravaganza, with no two shots looking alike. That is worth noting since golfers that can provide creativity and accept bad breaks might be at an advantage in this warm-weathered wonder of a layout, and the property can quickly turn good efforts into a disaster because of the creek that meanders throughout the grounds. Think of a facility where fiery greens and fairways will produce extra rollout, and shots that don't stop in the correct locations possess a risk of either trickling down the shaved-runoff areas of the putting surface - sometimes as far as 20-to-30 yards off the green, or perhaps even worse, into the creek if a drive off the tee catches the wrong slope of the hill.
All those factors should naturally put a vision of great tee-to-green form into your head, and that point becomes even further emphasized when you look into 11 different holes featuring four or more sand traps guarding the surface. Like any PGA Championship test, notable total driving will be a factor for the week, but the ability to control your irons from all distances, mixed with a short game that can recover and save par on errant approaches, might be the key if you want to conquer the venue. I will dive deeper into my statistical breakdown in the section below, providing a more in-depth understanding of how I measured the numbers, and I hope that will help give a greater insight into the track for those looking to create their models for the week.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Southern Hills | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted T2G (35%) - That is a large percentage upfront, but I took a recalculation of the metrics to provide 40% of that computation from a reweighted proximity total from 100 yards and beyond, 30% total driving, which is a 65/35 split of distance over accuracy and then 30% around the green. I believe there are other ways to break down those percentages if you want to get highly technical, but I wanted to pinpoint golfers that could avoid the hazards off the tee, hit these smaller surfaces with their irons and save scores when something does go wrong during the opening two steps of that equation.
- Weighted Fast Bentgrass (15%) - There is a separate category in my model if you want to look at straight putting, but I took a redistribution where 70% came from a total aspect and 30% looked into putting on similar greens. That combination provided a complete examination of the data, which I preferred over pinpointing only the premier putters on the surface.
- Strokes Gained Total Hard Scoring Courses (10%) - I am not necessarily convinced that the winning score lands as low as some are suggesting in the space, but somewhere between a four-under to 12-under seems like a reasonable range to expect.
- Strokes Gained Total Wind (5%) - The wind that is projected in the forecast deserves a more significant weight than five percent, but I haven't loved my recent models where I have gone higher than that total. There are so many abnormalities regarding wind in general, and I prefer adding it as something I can look into more from a daily perspective, and maybe not so much as a deciding factor over all four rounds.
- Weighted Par-Four (15%) - The Par 70 nature gives us 12 par-fours each day and half of those stretch between 450-500 yards.
- Weighted Scrambling (10%) - Some of these numbers are used in a double-dipping sense, but scrambling, around the green, fast Bentgrass, bogey avoidance and sand save percentage all went into the end product.
- Sand Save (10%) - Eleven of the holes are guarded by four-plus bunkers. Pretty much every location will have multiple that come into play. Sand save percentage will be equally as crucial as around the green, if not more so.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Scottie Scheffler continues to lead the way - this time at $11,400 on DraftKings. The American has been stellar in his young career at PGA Championship venues, posting back-to-back top-eight finishes in his only two tries, and it would appear as if you are trying to get cute for the sake of saying you did if you attempt to fade this year's Masters winner. Scheffler ranks number one in my model for safety, making him one of the better targets for cash-game builds, and he jumps to second overall in my reweighted tee-to-green category - 20 spots higher than his projected output.
Moving down the board by $200, we land on Jon Rahm ($11,200), who finally got himself back into the winner's circle during his last start at the Mexico Open. The around the green worries that place him 124th in that statistic over the previous 24 rounds will detract a handful of percentage points when it comes to ownership, which means if you are willing to trust the two strokes that he gained around the greens during his victory a few weeks ago, you might be able to create some leverage on the field at his 10-12 percent projected mark.
Justin Thomas ($10,700) rides into the week with tons of momentum, having done everything but capture titles over the past year. The upper-echelon statistics of weighted tee-to-green, weighted scrambling, weighted proximity, and par-four scoring propels him to the top of my model in various spots, and the style of most PGA Championship courses will always suit his game - evident by his 2017 win at Quail Hollow.
And the last player I will mention in a positive sense is Rory McIlroy ($10,000). My model has historically been very in-tune with the Irishman finding success, and it is worth noting that McIlroy grades as the most likely person to walk out of Southern Hills with the second major of the year. That is a significant statement since we haven't seen the 33-year-old take down a grand slam event over the past eight years, but if this contest can creep its way into double-digit scoring, as opposed to a single-digit slugfest, McIlroy has the game to end that drought at this tree-lined, fiery fast test.
And all of that, of course, leads me to Collin Morikawa ($10,400), who has historically been the bane of my existence in these major championships, including when I faded him during his 2020 PGA Championship win. Look, you have to pick and choose your spots for these boards that create easy-to-build lineups, and it is not that I can't foresee the American causing me emotional despair once again, but there are just other areas and players that I would prefer playing, including dropping down into the $9,000 section and seizing some of that value instead. If Morikawa beats me, I will tip my cap to him, but if I am trying to create leverage, give me Rahm/Scheffler, and if I am trying to go for the upside of my model, I will take McIlroy or Thomas.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
The easiest way to start this section is likely to mention who I am least interested in playing, which would be Viktor Hovland ($9,900), Dustin Johnson ($9,500) and Brooks Koepka ($9,000). We will likely need a drastic change of some kind between now and Thursday for me to want to implement any of those three names into my builds, so let me mention a few of the reasons I am lower on the group than consensus.
Hovland's ranking of 141st in strokes gained around the green is being somewhat ignored because of the connection of Tulsa being an hour away from Oklahoma State, and we are left in this spot where his irons would need to be extremely dialed in, something that I wouldn't discount entirely, but I am attempting to simplify the equation and not need such an A-level performance at all times.
Johnson is probably the most concerning fade of the group since there are metrics that point in his favor, but are we sure he can put together four rounds of success at his current price tag? If the ownership does happen to drop down to six or seven percent, I am willing to reconsider my stance on this topic, but anything around 10 percent is still too high for the uncertainty he provides.
And there isn't going to be a higher number than one percent for me to want to play Koepka. The injury concerns are real, and this narrative of him only performing in major championships is one that continues to confound me. I view it in a similar sense to what I said with Morikawa, where if he beats me, then congratulations on defying the statistics pointing in a different direction.
That means Cameron Smith ($9,700), Jordan Spieth ($9,600), Xander Schauffele ($9,300), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) and Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) are the names I am considering most heavily at this moment. I will continue to run numbers over the next few days to condense this player pool down as far as I can, but each is inside the top-11 in some iteration of my model, and I think we might be able to successfully deploy the group in MME builds because of the upside that they possess.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Let's attempt to concentrate on three names in this $8,000s to highlight where I am most intrigued as of Monday. Once again, please note that my opinions might shift as new information enters the market, but the three golfers I continue to find myself clicking are Shane Lowry ($8,700), Daniel Berger ($8,600) and Louis Oosthuizen ($8,000).
It appears that I am not the only one to derive such a conclusion for Lowry, but there are always ways to get unique in your builds. The statistics and form both are meshing together to show a golfer peaking at the right time of the year, and Lowry has provided three top-12 finishes over his past four PGA Championship tests.
Berger is a golfer that I have found myself backing during pretty much every PGA Championship since 2017, and I actually wrote during that 2017 event - a tournament where I also picked the winner Justin Thomas - that Thomas and Berger would both secure their first majors eventually during a PGA Championship contest. Thomas crossed that off the list right away, and I continue to play the waiting game on Berger, who has the skillset to thrive during these Par 70 ordeals.
And let's continue to double-check on the health of Oosthuizen as we get closer to Thursday. It is less than ideal that his last start resulted in him withdrawing from the Masters, but certain players will always have that heightened withdrawal bug. When we have to take those golfers at 15-25% ownership for DFS sites, I am out, but we know Oosthuizen can top-five any time he is active during a grand slam, and six percent is way too large of an overcorrection at this moment.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
That is a long list that will need to be worked through to lower playable choices, but there is a lot to consider. Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,900), Keegan Bradley ($7,500), Alex Noren ($7,000), Tony Finau ($7,900), Tommy Fleetwood ($7,600), Jason Kokrak ($7,300), Talor Gooch ($7,400), Russell Henley ($7,200), Brian Harman ($7,000) and Jason Day ($7,500) are the early names that stick out to me.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
I know we always stress how pricing is incredibly soft for majors, but I honestly don't see a great $6,000 range to pick between. My player pool will be a combination of Kevin Na ($6,900), Aaron Wise ($6,800), Mito Pereira ($6,700), Sebastian Munoz ($6,800) and Chris Kirk ($6,900) - with the occasional sprinkle of the remaining names that made the cut in the image above.
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