X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Passing on Passers - A Case For Drafting Your QB1 Late

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

We all know that Patrick Mahomes, in his second season as an NFL player and his first as a full-time starter, broke a record set in 2013 by the very own Peyton Manning. In 2018, Mahomes finished the season with 417.1 fantasy points, edging Manning's 412 by 5.1 in the final tally. That is impressive in and of itself, but do you know what is more impressive? Mahomes accomplished such feat being drafted around the 10th round on average with an ADP approaching 120.

Don't get me wrong, though. The 2018 season also saw Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck rack up more than 325 points. The former boasted an ADP of 42 and the latter's was at around 85. Good quarterbacks with high ADPs more often than not are going to produce points no matter what.

That doesn't mean, though, that you should draft one of those highly-coveted, highly-priced quarterbacks. Each and every year the passing game seems to get more importance in the NFL. It shows both in real-life and in fantasy leagues. Today, I'm here to analyze what has happened during the past few seasons at the QB position in order to convince you, once for all, that you should wait on drafting your QB1. Thank me later. Note: to see images in full size, just click on them.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

The Average Quarterback Production Is (Almost) At A Historical High

The following chart depicts the points generated by every quarterback from 2010 to the 2018 season. There have been 209 quarterbacks ranked since 2010 on Fantasy Football Calculator's (FFC) database. From 2014 on, the trend has gone upwards in total QB point production barring a little regression in 2017 (Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson missed 18 combined games, though). Even with that, 2018 has been the best season of the decade by far in terms of QB fantasy production:

Accounting for the number of quarterbacks to feature on FFC's ADP rankings each season, and thus showing the average points per quarterback instead of the total points accumulated by all players at the position, things stabilize a bit. There is an up-and-down line going from 2011 to 2018.

An uptick in production is followed by a lesser outcome the next season, and vice-versa. Maybe 2019 average production moves down again after a peak in 2018, but we'll have to wait to know and I have serious doubts that will be the case.

All of this is great but, who are the quarterbacks truly awarding the most points to their owners?

 

Higher ADPs Don't Always Translate Into Higher Production

Although I may have convinced you that 2018 proved that the quarterback position is posting arguably historically high marks, that doesn't mean you should pass on the best quarterbacks available early in your draft, right?

The fact that more QB-points were generated in 2018, at first sight, and with the presented evidence, still doesn't tell us who was really generating all that point surplus. At this point, you wouldn't be wrong assuming there was an uptick in production just because of heavy-lifters as Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Tom Brady (ADPs 1-2-3 in 2018) were putting on tremendous performances. Turns out that is not entirely the case.

Here is every player on FFC's dataset represented by a single dot per season. You can find their ADP (overall among all players, not only QBs) on the horizontal axis, and their fantasy points at the end of that season in the vertical one:

As we could expect, there is indeed a relation between ADP and fantasy points produced at the end of the year. Exactly, the correlation between both variables amounts to an R-Squared value of 0.15 (where zero means no relation, and one means total positive correlation). Good, definitely not great.

To make things a little less messy, here are the quarterbacks ranked for the 2018 season and their fantasy points production. I have applied a color scale divided into five levels to make things easier to the eye:

Getting back to Mahomes, he was the clear leader of the pack with his record 417.1 points. After him, there was a group with 310+ points comprised of six QB. Then there was another group that scored between 240 and 310 points with nine QBs in it. Finally, the worst two groups had seven and four quarterbacks respectively, all of them producing under 215 points (except Derek Carr who got to 215.8).

The same trend line that applied to the whole dataset can also be seen to a certain point here. At the top left part of the chart, we find the highest-drafted QBs and those with the highest production numbers. As we go down and to the right things get murkier with the likes of Tyrod Taylor making their appearances.

 

A Season-By-Season Look At Quarterback Production Based on ADP

The same as I did with the 2018 season in the previous section I have done for every year since 2010, putting all charts together in the same image so you can easily and quickly compare all of them:

Excluding the weird outlier that 2015 turned out to be, every year presents a similar trend line. The R-Squared values range from .12 to .32, with the exception of 2015 again featuring a negative correlation (!)

As I'm trying to convince you of not drafting the highest-ranked QBs by ADP, I'm going to leave part of the data out to focus on the really good point-producers. The next chart is limited to the last five seasons, and to quarterbacks with at least 200 fantasy points in their accounts at the end of the year. Also, QBs with an overall ADP over 84 (end of the 7th round in 12-team leagues) are highlighted:

Of the 86 quarterbacks to score more than 200 points between 2015 and 2018, only 39 of them did so while being drafted inside the first seven rounds of fantasy drafts. Less than half of them! Of those 39, only 15 (again less than a half!) put up more than 300 points. In comparison, 10 quarterbacks drafted from the 84th pick onwards logged 300+ points in at least one of the past five seasons. You can't tell me you're not starting to seriously consider passing on QBs early.

As I said before, there are sure bets on players that almost 99% of the time are going to do what we expect them to do. Rodgers raved on 2014 and 2016. Wilson and Brady did so in 2015 and 2017. They came with high ADPs but they were worth the price. On average, though, the best QBs are not linked to a high ADP as the data clearly shows.

Nobody could predict Mahomes putting on a record-season last year, for sure. But the odds of that happening again (at least to a certain extent) with any other underrated or overlooked quarterback are higher than ever. Drafts are living, breathing processes. Their flow varies from one to another and things can look totally different depending who your fantasy league-mates are, their backgrounds and experience, strategies, etc. If you see Mahomes available at the start of the fifth or sixth round, as impossible as it sounds, you take him. You have to adapt and take advantage of the situation. But if that drop doesn't happen to him or any other super highly-rated QB, you're probably better off passing on quarterbacks since at least the 8th round arrives, loading on RBs and WRs (and the eventual TE if you like so) with the prior picks.

Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff all were picked on average at or later than the 8th round in 2018. All of them, too, produced more points than all but two players (Watson and Rodgers) ranked above them by ADP. Deshaun Watson getting off the board at around the 42nd pick or Aaron Rodgers at the 30th could have cost you a lot of points if you had selected them over other much better point-producers at the WR or RB position considering how Jared Goff, for example, finished just under 20 points behind those two.

The takeaway from all of this is that the difference in points from an ADP-30 QB and an ADP-80 one is not worth the price to pay for the first one given how much more expensive he would turn out to be.

So for the upcoming season, each time you enter the draft room, keep that in mind. Be comfortable laughing at those trying to snatch Mahomes, Mayfield or Watson in the first two or three rounds of the draft. Wait for your chance. Bank on sleepers.

Finally, all you'll have to do is wait for the season to finish and present all of those too-fast gamblers a QB leaderboard. Their quarterbacks may be floating around the top spots, but yours will undoubtedly be near enough to them, if not over their names if you truly hit the right button on draft day.

Enough with all those Zero RB and Zero WR strategies. Go Zero QB. Just wait and reap the rewards. You can thank me now.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Max Scherzer1 hour ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw1 hour ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler1 hour ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager2 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz2 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Alex Caruso2 hours ago

Ayo Dosunmu Probable Friday
Darius Garland2 hours ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell2 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson4 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds4 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu4 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray4 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano5 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole5 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz5 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon6 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco6 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad6 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov6 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto6 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin7 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard7 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins7 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist7 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear7 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop7 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels7 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado8 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer8 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman8 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent8 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White19 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl20 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon20 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter20 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic20 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio20 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday20 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton21 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Eduardo Rodriguez22 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell22 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green22 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson22 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman22 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres24 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer1 day ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar1 day ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More