X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Divisional Round - Vegas Lines, Over/Under Picks & Predictions

Welcome to the Divisional breakdown here at RotoBaller! The Wild Card round played out vastly different than most of us anticipated, and it has given us some hefty spreads for the second round of the playoffs. Three of the four teams are currently priced to win by at least a touchdown, which puts us in an awkward position when handicapping these games.

In general, overreactions are prevalent in the sports betting world. It is what allows bookmakers to set prices that look appealing on the surface but are meant to be nothing more than fool's gold. I think that is something you need to keep in mind when doing your research this week and try not to let any single thing you saw last weekend cloud your judgment going forward

There are a lot of moving pieces to begin any NFL week, so I will update this article as pertinent information comes to light. Without further ado, let's jump right into the NFL Divisional round.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco (-7.0): O/U 45.0

The Minnesota Vikings are not a bad football team, but their victory over the New Orleans Saints did come as a bit of a shock to most people watching on Sunday. I don't think the result was overly surprising when you consider the fact that the Vikings featured a run game that could cause New Orleans issues if they took advantage of outside rushes. But despite the surprising win, we shouldn't all of a sudden forgive their missteps along the way this year.

There are a few key points we should look into when trying to figure out what the casinos believe the proper line should be behind this game. It is important to note that the Vikings opened as an eight-point underdog on the road last week to New Orleans, and regardless of what shop you use as your source for initial pricing this week against the 49ers, you are going to be looking at a range between +6.5 and +7.0. The reason I find diving into the matchup in this fashion is because we do have some information about what the proper number would have been just a week ago.

Let's not forget that the 49ers traveled into New Orleans during Week 14, a game where San Francisco was pegged as a one-point underdog on the road. Somewhere around three points generally is the accepted power rating for what home-field advantage is worth if other mitigating factors aren't coming into play, so we are looking at a spot that says sportsbooks had the 49ers two points better than the Saints on a neutral field.

When we come back around to tie this whole picture together, a proper opening line would have been about 10 points for the 49ers and Vikings just a week ago. I don't believe casinos would have wanted to take on the full liability of giving sharp bettors a key number of 10 to begin the week, but we were probably looking at around -9.5 when taking into account all determinants. All of this begs the question: Why do we get this over adjustment? And how can we take advantage of it?

Public perception is the answer to the first part of the question, but there is a common misunderstanding when it comes to why shops open numbers where and how they do. Books aren't trying to provide a price that is dead even in terms of value; rather they are looking to find the ideal going rate that draws action towards the area they want. That might mean looking for even bet splits on games where they don't want any liability and sometimes it means releasing a number that is going to make them need one team or another.

I don't want to make it sound as if a correction of three points isn't possible, but a movement of that kind this late in the season would require injury or some other variable to shift the line. If you go back and watch how the Vikings were able to escape New Orleans, you will see they used their personnel in an ideal fashion. Minnesota moved their outside pass rushers to the middle to apply pressure up the gut, which caused Drew Brees issues because of his height. On top of that, the Vikings ran Dalvin Cook directly to the outside because of injuries suffered by the Saints to their outside defenders. You can't take away Minnesota's superior gameplan, but you can begin to question New Orleans' lack of adjustment and the inability they showed to defend their flaws.

The Vikings have done a solid job on the year in defending tight ends when teams enter the red zone - only allowing one score, but their 91 receptions surrendered place them fifth-worst in the NFL. That is a little alarming going up against George Kittle, but their most significant disadvantage might come on the outside and through the trenches. The Vikings rank 26th in defensive success rate against the pass, as well as 31st against the rush. That is a bad combination against a team that likes to take shots to Emmanuel Sanders/Deebo Samuel and then use their three-headed backfield to deliver the kill shot. I think we see this game get ugly early and expect San Francisco to roll into the NFC Championship.

Prediction: 49ers 27 – Vikings 17 

Recommended Picks: 49ers (-7.0), Under 45

The total appears to be pretty close at 45, although I do think there is still a little value left on the under at that number. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is most likely not going to be overly aggressive with QB Jimmy Garoppolo making his first playoff start, and it was obvious last weekend that the Vikings prefer to shorten the game by running themselves.

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): O/U 47.5

If I told you before the game last week that Ryan Tannehill was going to go into Foxboro and throw for 73 yards, you would never have expected for Tennessee to come out of New England victorious. Well, that is precisely what he did, as the Titans ran 49 offensive snaps for a whopping 4.8 yards per play in the game.

To me, this is a Tenessee team that might have been sharp around the time Ryan Tannehill took over for the squad in Week 6, but when we look at their schedule during that duration, only two wins have come against teams inside the playoffs, which includes a victory against a Houston Texans unit that was resting their starters in Week 17.

The Titans have faced the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of passers, but it has only amounted to a success rate that places them 23rd in the league. Yes, they deserve some credit for stopping Tom Brady and company, but that was a team who was struggling to find an identity on offense all season. It is going to be extremely hard for the Titans to have any chance of springing the upset if they can't figure out a way to put the Ravens in third-and-long situations throughout the game, and if we look at the numbers, they are only ranked 28th against the pass during first and second downs.

On the flip side of the ball, the popular sentiment is going to be that Derrick Henry has a chance to lead the Titans to another upset victory, but we need to discuss that possibility for a second. There is no taking away from Henry's dynamic performance last Saturday, but the size difference between what New England has on their front seven and what the Ravens possess is vastly different. Baltimore has enormous defenders that should be able to disrupt Henry's attack, and it was apparent to me last weekend that the Titans are going to struggle to produce points if they ever find themselves behind early.

The first few minutes of this contest might tell a significant story about what kind of a game we are in store for, but I find it challenging to handicap this in a manner that gives the Titans much of a shot. Tannehill is going to have to show me something offensively that I don't think they can accomplish against an upper-echelon sort of defense, and assuming he can't, this has blowout potential written all over it.

Prediction: Ravens 31 – Titans 13

Recommended Picks: Ravens (-9.5), Under 47.5

Similar to the first game on Saturday, there is some value on the total because of my stance on the underdog. It is probably a little more dangerous in this contest since the Ravens are so dynamic offensively, but I do believe the Titans' downside is greater than the Vikings. 

 

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5): O/U 51

I haven't touched this game yet in any fashion, but I do have some friends that are professional gamblers that unloaded on the Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) when this spread opened. I'm not sure if I will get myself to go down the same road, but they do come from opinions I trust.

Knowing Bill O'Brien the way we do, I can't foresee the Texans going any route other than conservative on the road. Houston was able to pull the upset in this exact scenario during their Week 6 matchup, but I don't want to take too much away from that game. Patrick Mahomes was still dealing with some minor injury concerns, and the game got away from them schematically.

When we look at how that team was constructed at the time, the Chiefs were in a midst of a shaky start to the season, their defense was still adjusting to Steve Spagnuolo's new 4-3 system, and their injury list was about as long as you could find at that point in the year. In total, five starters missed the game, including offensive linemen Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie.

However, that situation isn't where we are at as we enter the Divisional Round. Every player on the Chiefs' active roster has been healthy enough to practice this week, and there is a real argument that can be made that the secondary is the most underrated unit in football. Those factors make me believe that O'Brien takes a conservative approach, which could cause this game to be played at a slower pace than expected.

Despite being heralded as an offensive wizard, Andy Reid's teams have struggled offensively the week after a bye. On the six occasions to date, all games have gone under the posted number, and it is not as if the totals have been egregiously high at an average of 44 points. I realize those trends can be thrown out the window since not every situation had the dynamic Mahomes under center, but it doesn't help that the Texans are most likely going to attempt to keep the contest competitive early behind Carlos Hyde. I think Houston's ultimate downfall will come from their conservative nature, but it might be enough to keep this game at a slower tempo than expected.

Prediction: Chiefs 30– Texans 17

Recommended Picks: Chiefs (-9.5), Under 51

Sharps and squares both seem to be on the Chiefs. That should push this up to +10 eventually, as books hope to get a little buyback.

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.0): O/U 47.0

The final game of the Divisional Round places two of the NFL's most overrated teams against one another. Only three of the final eight combatants left feature a negative net yards per play, and as you may have guessed by the opening statement, we have two of them here (the Texans are the other).

Depending on what statistics you find important, you can make a solid case for either side of this game. Do you believe Green Bay's inept run defense and faulty secondary when it comes to explosive plays will falter? Or will it be Seattle's defense that ranks last as a complete unit of all the remaining teams?

My personal power rating on these two sides slightly differs from most. I think a lot of Green Bay's early-season struggles were masked by their record, but the fortunate luck of being able to slip into the two seed should pay dividends now. Wide receiver Davante Adams is healthy and firing on all cylinders, and running back Aaron Jones has provided this offense with a running game that hasn't always been able to be counted on in years past. I am not going to try and sell the narrative they are the best team in the league, but I do think they are a few points better on a neutral field than where I have the Seahawks.

I don't like placing home-field advantage above four points in any spot, but Lambeau Field does reach right around that threshold for me. With the 2.5-point edge I give the Packers on a neutral field, I have the spread being -6.5 if we bestow the full advantage to this spot. I am not necessarily going to argue against anyone that disagrees and likes Seattle in this situation since both teams aren't quite what meets the eye, but you are going to have to roll with the information you believe to be true and go from there.

Prediction: Packers 31– Seahawks 20

Recommended Picks: Packers (-4.0), Over 47

 

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF