Derrick Henry Isn't Necessarily a Safe Pick

Justin Carter breaks down why Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry may not be as safe a pick in fantasy football as one may assume.

"Standard" isn't the actual standard scoring method for fantasy football anymore. That means running backs who don't add much in the receiving game need to be especially dominant on the ground to still have high value in PPR and half-PPR.

For the past few years, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has done that, leading the NFL in rushing yards for two consecutive years and totaling 45 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons.

But just because a player has done things in the past doesn't mean that player will continue to do those things. Henry has as high of a ceiling as anyone in football, but there are some valid reasons to be concerned about using a high pick on him in fantasy.

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Workload, Workload, Workload

The number one concern for me when it comes to Derrick Henry is that he's just had an unfathomably large workload on the ground. Running back is a position where players' peaks tend to be short-lived because of the beating they take, so the fact that Henry has 681 carries over the past two years is of major concern for me.

How does that workload compare to the rest of the league? Here are the players with the most carries over the past two years, per Pro Football Reference:

By the time we get to the player with the fifth-most carries over the past two years, we're talking about someone who had 192 fewer carries than Henry.

Back in 2015, NumberFire's Joseph Juan ran the numbers on when running backs seem to hit a cliff. For a career, that cliff is around 1,800 carries. Henry's only at 1,182, so hitting that 1,800 mark shouldn't be a concern yet.

But another mark is. The data here is admittedly a little old, but Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz ran some numbers in 2007 and talked about what he called the "Curse of 370." Essentially, running backs are more likely to either suffer injury or see a decline in their production following a season in which they had 370 or so carries.

Henry had 378 last season, as well as 19 touches in the receiving game and 21 playoff touches.

This doesn't necessarily mean Henry is due for a big injury or something. But when players have historically struggled coming off seasons where they had a Henry-esque workload, it's definitely something worth considering when trying to figure out how to value a guy in fantasy.

On the plus side for Henry, he's still fairly young and hasn't hit the age where running backs decline, and he is still below that 1,800 career carry mark. I'm not saying that Derrick Henry in 2021 looks like 2020 Frank Gore or something. I'm not trying to hot take this article. I'm just trying to bring in some caution and to make sure you're aware of all the possibilities before you spend a high pick on Henry.

Derrick Henry's Passing Game Usage

Possibly more concerning than Henry's heavy workload over the past two years is his lack of workload in the receiving game.

I'm no mathematician -- my doctorate is in writing poems, not doing algebra -- but I'm pretty sure that in half and full PPR leagues, you get points for catching the football. That makes it theoretically easier for running backs who catch passes to score fantasy points.

So, what did Henry do as a receiver last year? He set career highs in targets and receptions! That's good, right???

Slow down. Those career highs were 31 targets and 19 receptions. Those aren't very good numbers for an NFL running back.

In fact, they're more than just not very good. Per PlayerProfiler, Henry ranked 46th among all running backs in receptions. He also ranked 61st in receiving yards. And that's not overall -- that's only out of running backs. Henry had 114 receiving yards; per Pro Football Focus, there were 117 instances last year of an NFL player having at least 114 receiving yards in a single game.

Suffice it to say, Derrick Henry has not shown he can be a receiving threat.

But for the past two years, this has been fine, because he's led the NFL in rushing attempts and rushing yards. He hasn't needed to add much as a receiver because he was getting his fantasy points the hard way.

But that's the issue: getting fantasy points on the ground is the hard way for a running back. Not only do receptions equal points, but usually, a reception is for more yards than a carry, so there are more points coming there as well.

Betting on Henry to be one of the top running backs in fantasy again in 2021 is betting on continued outlier performances on the ground to make up for those lost receiving points.

Henry was the leading fantasy scorer at running back in Standard scoring leagues last year but was second in half-PPR and third in full-PPR. Even after leading the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, two players finished ahead of Henry in fantasy. Maybe Henry could be even better on the ground in 2021, but it's really hard to say that Henry didn't just perform at his ceiling. And that ceiling just isn't as high in most formats as the ceilings for guys like Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Saquon Barkley.

And again, look: I'm not saying Henry won't have another 2,000-yard season and finish as the RB2 or RB3 even in full PPR. But 2,000-yard seasons are really tough to get. If his usage drops off for whatever reason or he just isn't getting the yards per carry he's been getting the past two years, the absence of those receiving points could be felt really hard by fantasy managers.

The Titans Look Different Now

The two seasons that Henry just had were incredible.

But the Titans were also running so much of their offense through Henry. There are two reasons to think things could be different in 2021.

For one, Henry's best seasons came with Arthur Smith as the team's offensive coordinator. But Smith is in Atlanta now, where he's the head coach of the Falcons.

Tennessee now turns to Todd Downing to be the offensive coordinator. Sure, he'll still call plenty of plays for Henry, but it's always worth acknowledging that a coordinator change can introduce some uncertainty into things.

Downing was the tight ends coach for Tennessee the last two years, the same position Smith used to hold. You might be thinking "ahh, two former tight ends coaches turned offensive coordinators will have similar styles." And hey, you could be right!

But Downing also spent a lot of time earlier in his coaching career as a quarterbacks coach, a fact that I just can't shake out of my head. It could mean nothing. But eight years as a lead or assistant QB coach and a playing career as a semi-pro quarterback make me think the Titans want to throw the ball a little more, lowering the expected touches for Henry.

One other thing suggests a move towards throwing more: the team acquired Julio Jones this offseason. Tennessee hasn't had two high-end receivers in a while -- no offense meant to 2020 Corey Davis. But Jones offers a real 1B option to A.J. Brown's 1A. Ryan Tannehill should see an uptick in pass attempts, something that threatens Henry's touches.

A healthy Henry still probably leads the league in attempts, rushing yards, and maybe rushing touchdowns, but he'll be closer to the rest of the pack in that scenario. Not great for his fantasy stock since, as mentioned above, the lack of receiving usage requires an outlier performance from Henry as a rusher.

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